10 August 2009, 13:40 / Finance

Currency trading takes place without the intervention of the Central Bank

D. Grishkin

Following the results of the morning session of the UTS, the official dollar exchange rate on August 11 increased by 10.3 kopecks. to 31.65 rubles, euro – decreased by 34 kopecks. up to 44.95 rub. The cost of the bi-currency basket was 37.64 rubles.

Subsequently, the dynamics continued: the growth of the weighted average dollar exchange rate at 12:37 increased by only 4.5 kopecks compared to the previous day, and the euro decreased by 45.3 kopecks by 12:41. At 12:57, the value of the basket decreased by 4 kopecks by the previous day’s close. up to 37.59 rub.

“The Central Bank is bringing the market to greater volatility - it’s obvious: the regulator is moving away from interventions, switching to regulation using rates, the leash is loosened and fluctuations will clearly be greater,” says Sergei Fundobny, head of the analytical department of Arbat Capital. “But, if the situation with oil and world currencies will change and there will be a strong movement, then the instrumentation of rates will be insufficient - then, in order to reduce social tension, the Central Bank will have to enter the market."

At the same time, as the analyst believes, the Central Bank is now more inclined to prevent the strengthening of the ruble than the weakening: “Probably, already at the level of 30 rubles per dollar, the market will encounter strong resistance from the regulator, and we can go up to 33 rubles without any problems. ", Fundobny is sure.