Afghan Poll

I’m willing to argue with anyone that the elections in Afghanistan were a success. And they can even be called the most interesting of those that took place in the world in the coming century. A strange, at first glance, experiment with free voting in this country, however, turned out to be very interesting results. Despite all the disputes, objections and questions.

There were indeed a lot of questions. For example, is it even possible to hold elections in a country occupied by foreign troops, especially when the current president is considered a protege of Washington? What will voting look like in a state, most of which still lives in the realities of the 18th century? And, most importantly, how the voters themselves, the residents of a country for which the word “infidel” has long become synonymous with the word “conqueror,” will react to the voting procedure. After all, for almost two hundred years, troops of the British Empire (three times), the USSR, and now the United States together with NATO have successively entered Afghanistan.

All these questions remain. In addition, the results of the voting itself are not yet known - they will be officially announced only at the beginning of September. And the opposition, without waiting for the results to be completed, announced fraud, violations, and intimidation of voters...

This is the main achievement of the Afghan vote: INTRIGE.

Shortly before the elections, there were two forecasts. According to the first, Washington, of course, is not too happy with President Hamid Karzai, however, given that the United States now intends to concentrate the main efforts in the fight against terrorism not on Iraq, but on Afghanistan, the White House, they say, decided not to make a sudden change of leader. Others believed that Karzai, despite Washington’s attitude towards him, would, of course, use his administrative resources to secure a new presidential term for himself: they say, in this region, a leader must always be at least a little bit of a despot, otherwise “they will not be respected.” That is, most forecasts converged on the victory of the incumbent President Hamid Karzai.

Karzai, judging by preliminary data, did not fail to use the presidential resource. And Washington could have its own reasons in these elections. But the voting system, organized according to the Western model and with international assistance, unexpectedly gave this country an interesting election campaign and real electoral intrigue.

Karzai’s staff did not seem to be expecting this too much: one of the leaders of the incumbent president’s election campaign told me a few days before the elections that “Hamid Karzai is loved by the Afghans” and that “at least 80 percent are ready to vote for him, this will be immediately clear - you'll see!"

We didn't see it. The first results showed that both main candidates - Hamid Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah - are going head to head. In addition, in some provinces, lesser-known politicians received a large number of votes. Former Minister of Planning Ramazan Bashar Dost achieved tangible success in a number of regions, who in the election campaign relied on the poor, on the “little Afghan man”, who was not much noticed by local political heavyweights.

Special mention should be made about the election campaign. Of course, the most influential of the candidates turned out to be the heroes of numerous wars. During the election campaign of the candidates, of whom there were more than three dozen, there were constantly stories of brave deeds committed during the years of “jihad against the Soviets.” But there are already politicians in Afghanistan who did not start their careers with a gun in their hands. The same Bashar Dost, who lived in Europe for many years, told me that, in his opinion, the main problem of Afghanistan is that the country is split not even along national or cultural lines, but between two main forces: the Mujahideen and the Taliban, whose leaders are simply fighting for power. “Karzai made a bet on the Mujahideen, the Taliban were not happy, so they are fighting each other,” he explained. In his opinion, there is only one way out of this impasse: the country needs a new generation of politicians (to which, obviously, he counts himself).

Under other conditions, if these elections had not been so open, it is unlikely that the voice of new politicians, who do not have well-armed forces behind them, would have been heard. And it turned out that there is a wide range of political views and preferences in the country. And it also turns out that the popularly beloved leader, whom the young but very “active” Afghan bureaucracy reveres, is not so beloved at all. And if people are given such an opportunity, then even if they “live in the 18th century,” they still vote in accordance with their ideas, which may differ from the official ones.

Of course, the elections also demonstrated all the contradictions in Afghanistan. Often, especially in the outback, people voted as the tribal or clan leader decided. Many were afraid to come to the polling stations for fear of terrorist attacks; husbands often did not allow their wives to enter the polling stations. But, in fact, it was difficult to expect anything else. The elections painted a picture – real and unvarnished.

Observers point out that voters often voted not based on the political programs of the candidates, but on their national or regional affiliation. And it's true. And by the way, I don’t see a big problem here - after all, this is not news for Asia. In nearby India, too, most political parties rely on class-caste or regional slogans; moreover, for most of the history of independent India, it was generally led by people from the same Nehru-Gandhi family clan. But no one questions the democracy of this country, since representatives of this clan came to power through open elections, sometimes losing, and very painfully. The essence of elections is precisely for people to freely choose in accordance with their preferences, even if these preferences seem “Asian”.

The opposition is now quite open, including in the local media and on Afghan television, about fraud and violations. They harshly criticize the authorities. They would have tried to do this under other regimes - for example, even under King Zahir Shah, so beloved by many in the West.

Opposition leaders speak of their readiness to take their supporters into the streets with “peaceful protests.” I don’t know if we can talk about some kind of specter of a “color revolution” in Afghanistan, but even talk about this form of protest (instead of, say, threats to rebel) is indicative in itself.

Of course, there will still be many problems and bloodshed in Afghanistan. And the authorities will now somehow try to “influence the situation” (in the history of Afghanistan, none of the leaders simply gave up power). And the administrative resource can be activated. Obviously, some oppositionists may not be so peaceful and will want to shoot. And all the many problems of this country cannot be solved with one vote. Not to mention the fact that another experiment to transform Afghanistan into a modern state using the army contingent is clearly doomed.

The ambivalence of the Afghans themselves towards what is happening is noticeable in my Kabul friend, let's call him Mohammed. He doesn’t like NATO, calls Americans invaders, and insists that elections cannot be free under foreign occupation. At the same time, he admits that the recent elections may still become the most democratic in the country's history. Mohammed is not ready to accept the fact that foreign troops are conducting military operations in Afghanistan, but he also does not want the Taliban to return to Kabul. He respects his regional leader (Muhammad is a Tajik from Panjshir), but at the same time cannot stand being told what to do.

In a word - and the current elections have also shown this - Afghans are who they are, despite the changing official slogans, whether socialist or democratic.

And with all this, in the history of the country, more or less free voting was organized, in which, if desired, anyone could make exactly their choice. Moreover, in such difficult conditions. And no matter what happened next, the Afghans realized that if there was political will, this could be done. And this is probably the main result of the current Afghan elections.

I was even jealous.

Photos by Evgeny Pakhomov