In the regions

09.09.09

August 3, 2009 Julia Latynina

Events in South Ossetia unfold according to the same scenario as a year ago. This scenario is called the “Radio station in Gleivitsa”: the Germans, dressed in Polish uniform, attacked their own radio station and, accusing the Poles of aggression, inflicted a “response” blow to Poland. Before the vice-president of the United States, Bidden left Georgia, where he stated that the United States could not provide Georgia by military assistance, as the head of South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoita accused the United States, Israel and Ukraine of complicity of the Ossetian people's genocide.

Then the President of Kokokuta announced the shelling of Tarkhinvili from the Georgian village of Nikosi. Given that the village of Nikosi was erased from the face of the earth by the South Ossetian militias, it sounded somewhat strange. The next day, a citizen of Georgia Gogit Gigauri was blown up on the border with the Akhalgorsky district of Georgia. The President of Kokoita said that the Georgians themselves blew up the Gigauri, who “mini the paths and roads” in order to prevent the return of Georgians to Akhalgori.

Let me remind you that Akhalgorsky district belonged to the war and was held by our troops contrary to all international agreements. The South Ossetian authorities could not organize a normal life there: pensions ceased to be paid, residents robbed and killed. According to the Ossetian opposition, about 120 families were left in the area, which did not stop the Cocokita regimen to say that 22 thousand people voted in Akhalgori in the elections. It is noteworthy that the refugees have already received landscaped houses in Georgia, while the money allocated by Russia to the aid of South Ossetia, it was not known where.

In the framework of further peaceful initiatives, President of Kokoita demanded that Georgia are returning the Trusovsky gorge on the grounds that there are “many representatives of our people”. I wonder how many places are returning - from Australia to Canada - Russia may require on the grounds that many Russians were born there?

Then the authorities of South Ossetia announced the missile shelling of Tskhinvali (which were not confirmed by EU observers) and that Georgia was preparing to capture the Akhalgorsky district. Let me remind you once again that Akhalgori is 40 km. From Tbilisi and retained by our troops contrary to all international agreements. Akhalgori is both a strategic bridgehead for an attack on Tbilisi, and a bleeding wound on the chest of Georgia: the Georgians will try to return control over this area in the first place. Translated from the language of geography into the language of military strategy, this means that a possible Russian-Georgian war will begin with the fact that Russia will strike from Akhalgori a blow to Tbilisi and declare that these Georgians attacked Akhalgori. Russia has become a hostage to President Kokoita, a hostage to the actions of the authorities of the republic, which was not recognized by any state in the world except Russia and Nicaragua. The authorities in which the republic was practically depopulated: out of 70 thousand people before the war in South Ossetia, no more than 40 thousand remained in South Ossetia, and now, according to the calculations of the South Ossetian opposition, no more than 12-15 thousand.

The Kremlin supports cocoys, but this does not mean that the Kremlin controls it. When, after the war, Putin demanded a report on where the money went to restore South Ossetia, it came from Tskhinvali: “Do you want war? There will be a war for you. " When Putin sent to Tskhinvili Prime Minister Aslanbek Bulatsev, Bulatsev was met by armed machine gunners, and Bulantsev hurriedly left, saying that he had a heart attack.

All his peacekeeping plans, Mr. Kokoita, is going to decide at the expense of Russian soldiers. In the last war, when the Cockeuts left Tskhinvali, the city defended Barankevich. For the fact that Barankevich remained in Tskhinvali, when the Cockeuts left him, Barankevich was declared an enemy of the Ossetian people.

The problem is that last year's scenario will not be able to repeat. Last year, no one in the world paid attention to how the South Ossetian authorities firing in Georgia and at the same time declare their readiness to inflict a “response” of Georgian cities until the war began. This year, the war in Georgia was the most important, albeit the most closed by the topic of President Obama to Moscow. Russia and South Ossetia are unlikely to be able to explain that these Georgians themselves explode Georgians who seek to return to the flourishing Akhalgorsky district, while the damned West refuses the cocoys in his peaceful initiatives to return the Trusov gorge.

Moreover - no one will believe that the war began the war. Everyone will decide that Putin began her. In the conditions of the economic crisis, after the “gas” war with Ukraine, after the “milky” war with Belarus, with the coming to the power of President Obama (it will no longer be possible to declare that this is the United States behind Georgian aggressors) - a new war with Georgia will become the same for Putin's Russia as Afghanistan for the USSR became.

Afghanistan led to the collapse of the Soviet Union at the time of falling oil prices. A new war in Georgia can lead to the collapse of Russia.

Photo by RIA Novosti