It has become almost good form to expect a “small victorious war” with Ukraine under the slogan “We will return Crimea to Russia!”
I have just returned from Sevastopol: my friends from the Forgotten Regiment, an organization of veterans of the war in Chechnya and Afghanistan, tried to organize a Russia-Ukraine chess match there, the Black Sea Fleet with the Ukrainian Navy. This match broke down because a categorical ban was received from Moscow for the Black Sea Fleet to participate in this. Ukrainian sailors, children, professional clubs from Yalta and Simferopol played. Well, they banned and banned - in the end, what can you do if our bosses regularly lack the intelligence to understand that it is right to resolve emerging interstate problems and disagreements, including through simple human contacts, and not through the slot of the sight.
Much of what I saw in Sevastopol was a discovery for me, and many of the stereotypes that I had, and, I suspect, that of many people in Russia, turned out to be completely broken. Well, for example, stereotypes about Crimean separatism, about the explosive situation in Crimea, about the desire of the Crimean population to leave for Russia, their complete rejection of their Ukrainian statehood.
In fact, there is Russian nationalism in Crimea, which is understandable in conditions when an ethnic minority seeks to preserve its self-identification, its national autonomy, finding itself in the position of a diaspora. However, this is precisely Russian, not Russian nationalism. With unconditional sympathy for Russia, the Crimeans are by no means striving to return to their mother's womb. For many reasons, including because Russia has Chechnya and all the problems associated with it; and because they have heard about the Russian police lawlessness - and in Ukraine, the almost complete absence of the police is striking; and because there are six television channels in Sevastopol - one Ukrainian, two mixed, three Russian, and they talk about everything, scold the authorities, argue. In general, it was such a strong feeling: to be absolutely in your own, native environment - everyone around speaks Russian - and, moreover, everything else: the atmosphere, freedom of discussion and contacts. Just another planet.
So, the ideas that Moscow propaganda is broadcasting to us - that the people in Crimea are waiting for liberation - are very far from reality. Of course, there are people of radical views there, but they are in the minority. The dominant idea is European integration. At the same time, just as in the minds of people the concepts of “Russian” and “Russia” are divided, Europe and NATO are also divided: to Europe - yes, to NATO - no.
Of course, they do not intend to lose their Russian status and are fighting for it, for their Russian language, for autonomy, by the way, Sevastopol should now become a separate economic zone. I asked: what will happen to the fleet? Now 7,000 officers are being fired. So, a few are going to leave for Russia - about 5%, the rest will remain in Sevastopol or Ukraine, many have dual citizenship, many have Sevastopol wives. Although this is a problem for the local authorities: in a city of 400,000, not everyone can be employed.
So if it seems to someone in Moscow that in the event of a war with Ukraine they will find a “fifth column” in Crimea, then they are greatly mistaken. Both Russians and non-Russians in Crimea feel like a part of the Ukrainian state, the elites agree with each other, there is an understanding that shooting at each other should not be allowed, and a very definite one. I talked a lot with people close to the army and navy, with Afghan veterans. Of course, they love Russia, but they also prefer to love at a distance. And they have an absolute understanding that no one is waiting for them in Russia, no one needs them, and they can simply try to use them. In other words, Crimea itself does not need a “war for the liberation of Crimea”, there are no apologists for it. If where they are, then only in Moscow.