Silent world

Armenia and Türkiye signed protocols to normalize relations without talking

Today, at the invitation of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, his Armenian colleague Serzh Sargsyan is coming to Moscow for a short working visit. And although the presidents met in Chisinau last Friday at the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States , the current negotiations in Moscow are of particular importance. After all, for the leader of Armenia they will be the first international event after the historical event that happened on Saturday, October 10.

On this day, Armenia and Türkiye in the Swiss town of Zurich took the first step towards normalizing bilateral relations after more than a century of hostility that divided these countries. The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey - Edward Nalbandian and Ahmet Davutoglu - signed two historical protocols: “On the establishment of diplomatic relations” and “On the development of bilateral relations” between the two neighboring states.

This first, albeit important step towards reconciliation was not easy for the parties. The signing was possible only thanks to the enormous mediation efforts of Switzerland, Russia and especially the United States. The mediators convinced the authorities of Armenia and Turkey to put aside domestic political calculations and ignore serious opposition to the signing of these protocols in both countries. Although it will not be possible to bypass this opposition: the documents must still be ratified by the Armenian and Turkish parliaments, and the deputies are ambivalent.

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, who was present at the signing, drew attention to this: “Signing the protocols is the first step towards normalizing relations. The parties need to ratify these documents as soon as possible and begin their practical implementation.” It is expected that the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will take place within two months after the protocols enter into force.

The fact that the signing of these documents by the Armenian and Turkish ministers last Saturday almost failed is evidence that this will not be easy. And this despite the fact that the documents had already been initialed on August 31 by the foreign ministries of both countries, and the ministers only had to endorse them with their signatures. Moreover, on October 10, many journalists arrived at the University of Zurich, where the signing was planned, during the day. The heads of the Foreign Ministries of Switzerland, Russia, the USA, and France also arrived. Javier Solana was present from the European Union.

However, the ministers of Turkey and Armenia entered the ceremony almost four hours late, when journalists had already begun to doubt that the signing would take place. In the end, Edward Nalbandian and Ahmet Davutoglu signed their signatures late in the evening, but did not say a word and, as reporters noted, were “gloomy.” The previously planned speech by both ministers had to be canceled due to fears that it would turn into a showdown.

Journalists managed to find out that it was precisely because of this that the start of the ceremony was delayed. The fact is that Turkish Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, in an oral statement, intended to mention the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh, the solution of which may determine the implementation of the terms of the bilateral protocols. The Turks wanted to reassure their ally Azerbaijan, which has been in conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh since the late 1980s. In turn, Armenian Minister Edward Nalbandian was going to reassure the public opinion of his country with indirect hints about the fact of the Armenian genocide during the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the twentieth century, which was still unrecognized by Turkey, and other “historical disagreements.” As a result, international mediators convinced the ministers to abandon their speech altogether in order to silently sign the protocol.

According to the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet, American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Re joined in overcoming the sudden crisis. Later, speaking with American journalists, Mrs. Clinton did not hide her satisfaction. "We had a good night in Zurich," she said. On the way to the airport, after the ceremony, American President Barack Obama called the Secretary of State to congratulate him on his success. According to one member of the American delegation, “the President was very excited, he had a presentiment that this was a big step forward, and he wanted to see it for himself.” It is worth noting that this peacemaking success of American diplomacy took place just a day after 48-year-old Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Despite the undoubted success of the mediators, implementing the agreements will be more difficult than signing them. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, one of the key participants in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, has already issued an unprecedentedly harsh statement against Turkey. It states that “the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia before the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied Azerbaijani territories directly contradicts the national interests of Azerbaijan and casts a shadow on the fraternal relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey, based on historical roots.”

The head of the Turkish government, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hastened to respond to the criticism voiced from Baku yesterday. He stated that “until Armenia leaves the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Türkiye will not be able to take a positive position.” Erdogan emphasized that the “resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue” will ensure the passage of the protocols through the Turkish parliament, where there are still many opponents of signing these documents.

In Armenia, too, not everyone agrees with the plan developed by Yerevan and Ankara to open the Armenian-Turkish border, closed since 1993. The roots of the contradictions go deep into history. The events that took place in 1915 are considered by Armenia, Russia and many other countries to be the Armenian genocide. Then the authorities of the Ottoman Empire carried out repressions and massive forced relocations of the Armenian population, accused of collaborating with the Russian Empire, which was at war with the Turks. According to some estimates, about 2 million Armenians died then. The Turkish authorities do not recognize those tragic events as genocide.

In modern history, Türkiye was one of the first after the collapse of the Soviet Union to recognize the independence of Armenia in 1991. However, formal diplomatic relations were never established. And two years later - at the height of the hostilities around Nagorno-Karabakh - relations were completely frozen. The then Prime Minister of Turkey Tansu Ciler, supporting Azerbaijan in that conflict, ordered to block the border with Armenia with additional army units.

It is not surprising, therefore, that reports of the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan without resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and recognition of the Armenian genocide by the Turks stirred up the Armenian public. The Armenian National Congress, led by the first president of post-Soviet Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and the Dashnaktsutyun party were especially active against agreements with Turkey.

Armenian opposition parties held protests for a whole month demanding changes to the protocols, with the peak of protests occurring on October 9, when more than 4 thousand people took to the square near the presidential residence in Yerevan. The Armenian opposition believes that the signed protocols “threaten the security and dignity” of the country, and places full responsibility “for the unpredictable consequences of this process” on the head of state. Some oppositionists are already declaring that they will demand the president's resignation.

On the other hand, recently a group of famous Armenians supported the efforts of the Armenian and Turkish leaders, calling on their compatriots to help normalize relations with Turkey. This appeal was signed by Charles Aznavour, Artur Chilingarov, Armen Dzhigarkhanyan and many others. They welcomed the efforts of diplomacy. It is noteworthy, by the way, that the first serious contacts between Armenia and Turkey began in the fall of 2008 with a football match between the national teams of the two countries in Yerevan, which Turkish President Abdullah Gul then came to watch.

However, not everyone in Armenia agrees with the proposed mechanism for opening the border between Armenia and Turkey. Former Foreign Minister of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Arman Melikyan, in a conversation with Vremya Novostei, even before the signing of the protocols, noted that “the Armenian-Turkish border is not a problem of only bilateral relations.” In his opinion, the ratification of the current protocols should be accompanied by a simultaneous denunciation of the Kars Treaty of 1921 by the Armenians. After all, this document, signed by Turkey on the one hand and Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan with the participation of Soviet Russia on the other hand, determined the current borders of Armenia with its neighbors. Moreover, as some Armenian politicians believe today, the treaty defined these borders “unfairly.”

Some Armenian political scientists and politicians point out with displeasure the fact that the signed protocols could weaken Armenia’s ties with Russia. Currently, there is a Russian military base on the territory of Armenia. But will the Armenians remain interested in such close military cooperation after the intensification of relations with Turkey, a member of the NATO bloc?

The future opening of the Armenian border with Turkey will allow Armenians to trade with the outside world and may ultimately reorient Armenia away from Russia and towards other countries. Recently, Armenia managed to maintain foreign trade only through the ports of Georgia, but the land borders, with the exception of the Iranian one, were virtually closed due to poor relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The main thing is that Armenia has recently been unable to maintain contacts with Russia through Georgian territory, since the Russian-Georgian border was closed after the war in the Caucasus in August 2008.

Nevertheless, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Moscow is “sincerely happy” about the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, since we are talking about “countries friendly to Russia.” Russia is not only not inclined to see the incident as a threat to its strategic partnership with Armenia, but even hopes to receive economic benefits. Sergey Lavrov recalled that “the Russian company JSC Inter UES is involved in the supply of electricity from Armenia to Turkey,” and JSC Russian Railways is “ready to ensure the establishment and operation of uninterrupted railway communication between the two countries through the Dogukapı-Akhuryan border crossing.” .

Be that as it may, Armenia and Türkiye have taken a historic step towards each other. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is convinced that there is no alternative to establishing relations with Turkey without preconditions. But “if Turkey does not ratify these protocols within a reasonable time and then fails to comply with all their provisions within the established time frame or violates them subsequently, then Armenia will without delay take adequate steps provided for by the relevant international law,” he promised.

Gayane MOVSSYAN, Yerevan, Ivan SOLOVIEV