The depletion of the reserve

The events of the year according to The New Times

Reserve fund: Chronicle of exhaustion.
By the beginning of 2010, the “All-Russian Zanachka” will lose up to 2 billion rubles, despite the fact that back in February 2009, the reserve fund amounted to almost 5 billion. Its funds are actively spent on covering a budget deficit formed due to the crisis. What remains in the tanning panting - the New Times found out
February 1, 2008. The reserve fund - 3.058 trillion rubles of the Ministry of Finance divided the stabilization fund into the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund. Yevsey Gurvich, Head of the Expert Economic Group: “It was initially assumed that the reserve fund should ensure the fulfillment by the state of its obligations in case of falling oil prices and reducing the federal budget revenues. The mechanism of receipt of money in the“ cube ”is as follows. From last year, oil and gas revenues are taken into account separately from the budget. They are formed by mining taxes (HDPI) and export Duties for oil. Hydrocarbon income enters the reserve fund.

November 1, 2008. The reserve fund - 3.573 trillion rubles in the “piggy bank” increased in the pre -crisis months, they continued in the first months of the crisis, despite the dramatic drop in oil prices. Evsey Gurvich: “The calculations show that the reserve fund will still be filled, even if the oil price is at $ 40 per barrel. Of course, provided that the funds of the fund are not spent on financing a budget deficit.

February 1, 2009. Reserve fund - 4.864 trillion rubles - due to arithmetic: part of the reserve fund is stored in currency, therefore, when the national currency falls, the size of the reserve fund, expressed in rubles, increases. Natalia Orlova, the chief economist of Alfa-Bank: “Due to the devaluation of the ruble held by the Central Bank, the domestic currency weakened by about a quarter. The Ministry of Finance recalculated the reserve fund at the exchange rate. That is why from December 1, 2008 to February 1, 2009, the reserve fund increased by an average of 1.1 trillion rubles.

May 1, 2009. The reserve fund - 3.55 trillion rubles after the adjusted budget of 2009 was adopted, providing for a 3 trillion annual deficit, the reserve fund began empty. In March and April, 1 trillion rubles were transferred from the reserve fund to finance budget expenditures, including 400 billion rubles in April this year. In April, the funds also had to finance the oil and gas transfer deficiency for the first time - the Ministry of Finance allocated 91 billion rubles, or 35.5% of the necessary volume from Kubyshka. Thus, by April 1, the reserve fund amounted to 4.118 trillion rubles, and in the next month it decreased by another 566 billion rubles. December 1, 2009. The reserve fund - 2.24 trillion rubles in the last seven months over 1.3 trillion rubles were spent on financing the budget deficit. Forecast December 31, 2010. The reserve fund - 0 rubles by this time, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the reserve fund will be fully spent. Alexey Kudrin, Minister of Finance: “The Reserve Fund saved Russia: he defended from the most serious social and economic consequences.

“The reserve fund does not have a“ critical volume ”, below which it cannot fall. That is, the fears of Alexei Kudrin regarding the complete zero of the“ piggy bank ”are quite justified.

What next? Alexey Kudrin: “The new accumulation of the fund is possible provided that the price of oil has long been higher than $ 70 per barrel.

Evgeny Praorshin, the chief economist of Trust Bank: “Even if oil will stay at $ 70 for a year, the reserve fund will not be filled and the reserve fund will not be filled: now, at any price for black gold, the state will have much more appetites for expenses than in fat years.