December 30, 2009, 03:42 / Finance

The peak of banking problems will occur in mid-2010.

With government assistance, banks managed to avoid a bad loan crisis. Some of them are hidden in restructured debt, so the peak of problems will be in 2010, analysts Anna Baraulina warn

The most striking example of an aggressive but correct way to solve the problem of bad debts was shown by Alfa Bank ,” says Moody’s analyst Evgeny Tarzimanov. Top management analyzed the loans at the beginning of the year, demanding additional collateral, or even early repayment, from the companies. Some had to give him part of their business: Alfa Bank became the owner of a land plot of 81 hectares in the Istra district of the Moscow region (to pay off the debt of Mosobltrustinvest), the assets of MIAN and Peresvet.

Some banks, without any reorganization, cost the budget even more. Despite receiving 200 billion rubles at the end of 2008. subordinated loan, VTB needed new capital – the first level – within six months. The bank issued about a third of loans to developers. VTB had to take away controlling stakes in Sistema-Gals, Don-Stroy Invest and the collective farms of the military-industrial complex for debts. The exact volume of assets received for debts and restructured loans was not disclosed. In the summer, the state had to again invest 180 billion rubles in VTB capital. Nevertheless, VTB Group predicts a loss this year under IFRS.

Alfa was the only one that achieved repayment of the debt by Basic Elements companies, while dozens of the world's leading banks were negotiating restructuring.

The leaders and shareholders of Alfa Bank explained their harshness by concern for the safety of depositors’ money.

Other banks were inclined to restructure loans, essentially postponing problems for later, Tarzimanov says. The share of restructured loans in the banking system as a whole, according to Moody's estimates, reached 15% by the end of the year.

The state helped

The state had to take care of the depositors of some other banks. For example, Svyaz-Bank, which will surpass any other bank in terms of the number of claims filed against debtors this year, was unable to return the money because it lent to companies with minimal assets. VEB had to invest 90 billion rubles in its capital.

Sberbank had to take away many assets, including development ones, and, according to management, $6 billion. It did without government support (in 2008, a subordinated loan for 500 billion rubles) and by the end of the year expects 20 billion rubles. arrived.

“At first it seemed that VTB was more inclined to restructure loans and was less cautious about creating reserves, but at the end of the third quarter the banks were equal in a number of indicators,” notes Aton analyst Svetlana Kovalskaya. Sberbank's share of restructured loans was even higher than VTB's - 9.6% versus 8.3%, as was the share of loans overdue by more than 90 days (NPL) - 7.9% versus 7.8%.

Private banks, judging by their performance, were no better at choosing borrowers than state banks. According to Aton, Vozrozhdenie's NPL was 5.4%, and the share of restructured loans was 6.5%, while Bank St. Petersburg was 5.7% and 7.9%. At MDM Bank by July the share of overdue payments reached 14.2%, 2.3% were restructured.

It's only the beginning

The situation with bad debts is not critical yet. By November, the volume of overdue payments reached 1 trillion rubles, or 5.1% of the portfolio, although at the beginning of the year the Central Bank predicted 10%. True, the regulator itself admits that the real situation is reflected by the share of loans in categories IV and V. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Gennady Melikyan estimated it at the end of the year at 10–11%, which, in his opinion, is “not dangerous.”

Moody's at the beginning of 2009 projected the volume of problem debts at 20% of the total loan portfolio, including loans overdue by more than 90 days and loans that were expected to recover no more than 50%. “We believe that this forecast was justified,” says Tarzimanov. According to Moody's, the share of problem loans next year will reach a quarter of the total loan portfolio, the analyst believes. This is also Fitch Ratings' basic scenario.