Translated material
Cheat sheet for ministers
The government unveiled a new anti-crisis program
At the last government meeting of the past year, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the “Main Directions of Anti-Crisis Actions for 2010.” It is expected that 195 billion rubles will be spent on priority measures, and given the continuation of the implementation of last year’s anti-crisis measures, the volume of expenditures will reach 428 billion. In general, the government plans to gradually move away from narrowly targeted anti-crisis measures: in the next two to three years, the goal is to reduce the backlog of the schedule modernization of the Russian economy, outlined in the Concept 2020 and, of course, adjusted by the crisis.The cheat sheet for ministers for this year still does not differ much from the anti-crisis program adopted in mid-2009, only the emphasis is placed slightly differently, the wording has changed slightly, and the priorities have shifted slightly, but not significantly. The government's optimistic mood is growing: “The ongoing anti-crisis policy not only prevented a deeper recession, but also led to a relatively rapid transition of the economy to positive growth rates,” the document says.
After a fall in GDP of almost 9% in 2009, the government expects growth of 3.1% in the coming year, and “if anti-crisis and modernization measures are effectively implemented and the foreign economic situation improves, the figure could be 3.5% or higher.”
As in the previous anti-crisis program, the current one does not have an “implementation assessment” section. Of course, one can consider the achievement of the planned macroeconomic indicators as a result, but still, as before, they will primarily depend on external economic conditions. The government also recognizes this, pointing out that important factors in overcoming the crisis were the rise in prices on world markets for Russian export goods: “The higher than previously expected level of oil prices in the second half of 2009 and the faster recovery of the global economy allowed improve economic growth estimates for the coming year.”
But the state should not rely only on such an unreliable and generally speculative factor as oil prices. “The continuation of recovery growth in the current economic paradigm will be unstable, slower and will reproduce the economic model, the departure from which was designated as the main priority of the pre-crisis agenda,” the document says.
It is proposed to change the paradigm through the development of small and medium-sized businesses, restructuring the economy of single-industry towns, on the “modernization agenda” (this expression constantly appears in the program) - diversification of the economy, creation of new modern industries, stimulation of innovation activity, development of key high-tech and infrastructure sectors of the economy .
The goals are good, but the problem is with specifics. The document does not name these very key industries and innovations desired for implementation. “Main Directions” refers for information to the Commission on Modernization and Technological Development of the Economy under the President, the activities of the Investment Fund and Vnesheconombank.
Much less attention and money compared to last year’s anti-crisis program in its current edition went to the financial sector. The state, represented by its senior officials, has more than once recognized that the stabilization of the banking sector is perhaps the most successfully completed point of the previous plan. This year, the financial sector as a whole (this also includes pension and insurance companies) is expected to respond in the form of the formation of “long-term money” in the economy.
As for the desired achievements, the government hopes to keep inflation within 6.5-7.5% in the coming year, while real incomes of the population will increase by 3%. Social stability and protection of the population, as in the first program of anti-crisis measures, remain in the foreground, reducing tensions in the labor market is still relevant. But out of the planned 195 billion rubles. the most money will be allocated to support systemically important and strategic enterprises - 40 billion rubles. At the same time, 56 billion rubles. have not yet been distributed and remain in government reserve.
Last year's anti-crisis program was accompanied by an action plan; the current one has not yet acquired one.