Slavic bazaar

Russia and Belarus are trading for benefits and assets

The second oil war. The beginning of 2010, Russia traditionally met with an energy war with neighbors: this time - oil with Belarus. The conflict came to the level of rigid ultimatums, which the parties exchange. Is a compromise possible - found the New Times
Negotiations on the supply of Russian oil were going on all of December. It was periodically reported that the solution was about to be found. Not found. The new round began after the New Year, in the dry balance - the same zero. The date of new negotiations has not yet been determined. But in the information space, the parties deployed active hostilities. Moscow threatens to deprive Minsk of all energy benefits and suspend oil supplies to the Belarusian refineries, and Belarus in response promises to tenfold the cost of transit of Russian oil in its territory and 5.5 times raise a fee for transporting electricity. The threats of Minsk are reinforced by the loud political statements of President Alexander Lukashenko, who announced the release of Belarus from the newborn Customs Union.
According to Reuters, the conflict of Moscow and Minsk has already led to short -term interruptions in the supply of Russian black gold to Belarusian oil refineries (from January 3 to 4). As a result, in Europe they again doubted the reliability of energy export from Russia.

What is put on Kon?

The stumbling block in the energy -diagram of the two countries was the terms of the new agreement on oil supplies to Belarus. The previous document, which allowed Minsk for three years to purchase Russian fuel at a discount, expired at the end of 2009. Taking advantage of the moment, Moscow decided to make adjustments to the current scheme. Representatives of the Russian side say that Minsk was made an “unprecedented proposal”, which cannot be abandoned: instead of applying preferential export duties to the entire volume of oil purchased by Belarus (about 20 million tons per year), Russia is ready to supply 6.3 million tons of duty free to the republic. That is how much is required to satisfy the internal needs of the country. The rest of the fuel Minsk was asked to pay for the full program. This will increase revenues to the Russian budget by $ 1.4 billion, but Belarus will save about $ 1.3 billion per year due to partial preservation of benefits, says Moscow Bank Analyst Denis Borisov.

In the Belarusian capital, the generosity of Moscow was not appreciated, calling the conditions put forward "unprecedented pressure." “Until now, a larger amount of oil purchased in Russia at a preferential price, Minsk launched for processing, and then sold oil products to Europe, but already at market value. Last year, this scheme brought Minsk about $ 3 billion. In the current, thanks to higher oil prices, Belarus counted on $ 4-5 billion. The conditions put forward by Russia will reduce these expectations by 3-3.5 times, ”Denis Borisov explains.
“For a long time, Belarus with varying degrees of intensity used Russia as a supplier of cheap energy resources. In some years, the volume of oil and gas rent reached 20% of GDP. It was at this time that the period of rapid growth in the GDP of Belarus came, ”agrees the head of the Belarusian Research Center of Mizes Yaroslav Romanchuk. - Now the price of the issue for Belarus is high as never before. The new oil policy of Russia can turn into about $ 4.5–5 million for Minsk, which is about 10% of the country's GDP! ”

Who is to blame?

The last time the Russian-Belarusian Energy Energy experienced a similar crisis at the turn of 2006/2007. Then the oil pipe was blocked for almost a week. Without Russian oil, all Eastern Europe and Germany were left, buying 35% of black gold in Russia in Russia.
“Both in 2007, and now the reason for the conflict was the decision of Moscow to reduce the size of the hidden subsidization of Belarus. We are talking about very large money that Minsk is used to counting his own, ”says Leonid Grigoryev, president of the Institute and Finance Institute of Finance and Finance.
In the Kremlin, the size of the annual “support” of the economy of Belarus only due to oil and gas benefits is estimated at $ 5.8 billion, which exceeds 40% of the state budget of the neighboring republic. Judging by the latest events, Moscow considers the size of its “gift” to the neighbors excessive.
From Minsk, the situation is seen completely different. “True in this conflict on our side. Between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, the Customs Union is concluded, the meaning of which is precisely that the goods inside it are moving duty-free, ”says Pavel Daneyko, the president of the Belarusian economic research and educational center,“ Russia defends its interests, completely understandable. But if these interests are outweighed, then it is not necessary to join the Customs Union. Moscow should just honestly say that it was enough for a free trade zone. ” “It is obvious that Belarus has headed for the delay in negotiations. Now Minsk is appealing only to the agreements on the Customs Union and is trying to blackmail Moscow with transit tariffs, as was the case in 2007. However, it is possible that if the compromise is not found, Lukashenko will take more decisive steps, ”said Alexander Fadeev, head of the department of Belarus of Belarus of Belarus.

Will there be a compromise?

In order to understand whether a compromise is possible, one must be aware of the true aspirations of the parties. For Belarus, it is important to maximize the volume of duty -free oil obtained from Russia, so that it is enough for domestic consumption and a solid “gesheft” when reselling abroad. And Russia wants to receive a number of oil and petrochemical assets of Belarus in property, says a source close to negotiations. Accordingly, the parties may converge that Moscow will increase the preferential volume of duty -free oil supplies to 8 million tons. And in exchange, he will receive the right to participate in the privatization of enterprises “GomelTransneft“ Druzhba ”and“ Novopolotsk RUE for Druzhba’s oil transport ”, which relate to the Belarusian oil transportation system. The expert believes that it was no accident that the other day Minsk said that these companies will be state -owned in 2010. And in Russian oil companies - first of all, Rosneft and Lukoil - there is a long -standing objective interest in these assets. Moreover, there is a precedent: in 2007, in exchange for preferential conditions for the supply of Russian gas, Minsk lost 50% of Beltransgaza Gazprom.