Translated material
From Yu to Z
Ukrainian voter reached the end of the alphabet
If last Sunday there was no one out of the ordinary, then when you hold this number in your hands, the name of the new president of Ukraine will already know, and this name is Viktor Yanukovych 
According to sociologists, before the day of the decisive vote on February 7, Yanukovych was a leader with a margin of at least five percent of the vote.
Tymoshenko had high hopes that he could turn the situation, enlisted the support of Sergei Tigipko, who in the first round showed a sensationally high result, taking third place with 13% of the vote. However, Tigipko prudently rejected Tymoshenko’s insistent courtship, who, in fact, was offering him a deal: you publicly support me before the second round, I will win you-I will appoint a minister after win. In the end, Tigipko even got angry-his press service spread on Thursday, February 4, a rather tough statement with the threat of court claims against those who, on the eve of a decisive vote, are trying to portray him with their supporter. This warning was clearly addressed to Tymoshenko, since Yanukovych behaved very carefully and did not try to be equally unceremoniously politically flirting Tigipko as Tymoshenko did. According to experts, a significant part of the “third winner” electorate should go to Yanukovych in the second round.
Maidan-2010?
The “Iron Lady” of Ukrainian politics at the very curtain of the election campaign promised to arrange Yanukovych a new “orange revolution”. It is possible, she will be able to bring her supporters to the streets of Kyiv. Last fall, at the very beginning of the election campaign, in the first-winter Kiev Kiev evening, Yulia Tymoshenko managed, despite the frost, to organize a grandiose rally concert on the Maidan, where, according to various estimates, several tens of thousands of her fans gathered. All analysts amicably appreciated this mass action as a demonstration of power, as a rehearsal on the eve of the election. But even the most advisable activists of Tymoshenko’s election headquarters agree that the amazing atmosphere of genuine public upsurge, which reigned in Kyiv in 2004, will not be able to reproduce today - it was, perhaps, the decisive factor in the success of the “Orange Revolution”. Although, perhaps, a street protest rally against the “undeserved victory” of Yanukovych will last more than one day. Perhaps there will be numerous lawsuits, attempts by the losers in the courts to challenge the results of the winners. But this is unlikely to give a result.
As for mass falsifications, to which, according to Yulia Tymoshenko, the supporters of Yanukovych should certainly be resorted to, they were not very believed either. The leader of the Party of Regions was so eager to take a full -fledged, without any tricks and tags of revenge in 2004, to win, as called, as an expensive thing that could hardly bless the dirty game of his headquarters.
Another thing is that the zealous activists of the Party of Regions on the ground could - in an effort to please their leader - try to "twist" the appearance in the direction of its increase.
Poor Julia ...
If European observers are a verdict that the elections as a whole passed normally and there are no special comments, Tymoshenko will be in a hopeless situation. Of course, some foreign observers who gathered in Kyiv in large numbers these days live in captivity of stereotypes five years ago: they stubbornly see in Tymoshenko a pro -Western leader, a defender of European democracy, and in Yanukovych - a former Red Director, who costs nothing on the day of the elections to thoroughly “naughty”, which will lead Ukraine back, in The hugs of Moscow, will tighten the nuts, will lead an offensive against democratic rights and freedoms of citizens.
... and Yanukovych Reborn
In fact, everything is much more complicated. In this election campaign, Yanukovych, in particular, tried to do everything to change his previous image of an openly pro -Russian politician. So, speaking the day before the first round on the largest Ukrainian television channel “Inter” in the program “Big Politics”, which is the author of these lines, Yanukovych promised to revise the agreements with Moscow on gas, calling the current price unreasonably high. At the same time, he stated that the interests of Ukraine as a transformer of Russian gas to Europe should be taken into account during the construction of new gas pipelines bypassing the Ukrainian territory, however, without specifying how this can be done and what are the levers of Kyiv’s influence on Moscow in this matter. Finally, speaking of the future of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia in Crimea, Yanukovych hinted that they should not rent at the current catchy prices. It was something like this: you want to sell us gas at market prices-pay us a market price for renting land for naval facilities in Crimea. And the chief of the election headquarters Yanukovych Nikolai Azarov, who is being sent to the post of new Prime Minister, generally made a sensation: two days before the election he said that-no less-the Russian FSB is preparing provocations against a presidential candidate, spreading false information through his channels, as if the gap between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko is reduced. True, after Azarov, he said that he was not quite correctly understood.
Elephants and gingerbread
Now about the upcoming “distribution of elephants and gingerbread”, that is, key posts that will inevitably begin in the very coming days.
The struggle for the post of prime minister in the near future will be the main priority for Yanukovych. Everything is very difficult here. Although Yulia Tymoshenko promised publicly-again on the air of the author of the author of these lines on the before last Friday-to voluntarily resign in case of defeat, according to the law, she is not obliged to do this. In order to shift Tymoshenko and appoint his trusted person, Yanukovych and his party should form a new government coalition-only she can approve the new Prime Minister. However, there is no confidence that they will be able to create it in the current parliament, which is fragmented into numerous fractions, and not one of them has a control package. It is possible that Yanukovych and the Party of Regions will have to go to the dissolution of the parliament and the holding of early parliamentary elections.
Almost the main thing is that it stops the “blue and white”-the great temptation to leave Tymoshenko overboard the parliament. After all, if you manage to shift Julia Vladimirovna from the post of head of government and appoint the same Nikolai Azarov instead, then it will remain without any official status. On the other hand, there is a risk that, more than two years before the next parliamentary elections-2012, the regionals will lose a bunch of votes, and their leader Yanukovych will lose today's popularity. And in the case of early elections, Tymoshenko, of course, will get into the Rada and lead the opposition, but the Party of Regions, you see, will be able to get additional mandates on the crest of the presidential success of Yanukovych. The decision, according to which option, is not yet accepted.
Social struggle
Meanwhile, in the event of a victory, Yanukovych will also have the names of the prosecutor general, several “power” ministers, heads of special services, etc. All this will require him to own the “higher pilot” of hardware intrigue. Around the leader of the “blue and white”, members of several opposing groups of influence in the Party of Regions were crowded-in anticipation of new appointments. People of the Donetsk billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, the main sponsor of the Party of Regions. The people of Sergei Levochkin are another ascending star of Ukrainian politics, claiming the post of head of the President’s Secretariat (analogue of our Kremlin administration), who began a political career back in the Kuchma administration as the first assistant to the president. The people of Boris Kolesnikov and the people of Andrei Klyuyev - large Donetsk businessmen and part -time deputies of parliament. Their confrontation is often much sharper and sophisticated than the skirmishes between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. True, Viktor Fedorovich quite possesses the art of sharing and dominating. Of course, he has problems with erudition, but Yanukovych cannot be occupied with political experience. However, the struggle for the division of portfolios and spheres of influence is serious-such that political scandals will show up by children's games, which, in the previous round of Ukrainian political history, in 2005, ruined the “orange” team of Yushchenko-Timoshenko after some eight months after the Maidan. It seems that the story can be repeated again.