Pragmatic thaw

Transnistria hopes for a new president of Ukraine

Tiraspol expects that after the change of power in Kiev, Ukraine’s attitude towards Transnistria will become warmer. During the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko, the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (PMR) fell out of favor after the majority of Ukrainian citizens living on its territory voted for Viktor Yanukovych in 2004. Since then, the Ukrainian authorities have not allowed the opening of polling stations in Transnistria, although in 2004 there were seven of them.

During the current presidential elections in Ukraine, the Union of Ukrainians of Transnistria, together with the leadership of the PMR, organized the delivery of voters to polling stations in the Moldovan cities of Chisinau and Balti. According to the chairman of the Union of Ukrainians Leonid Tkachuk, about one and a half thousand Pridnestrovians took part in the second round of the presidential elections out of 70 thousand local citizens of Ukraine, constituting 90% of the total number of Ukrainian passport holders on both banks of the Dniester. Over 80% of voters supported Viktor Yanukovych.

Upon learning of the election results, PMR President Igor Smirnov said: “We have positive experience of working with the Yanukovych government, and we hope for the healthy pragmatism of the new leadership of Ukraine.” Tiraspol expects from Kyiv a more attentive attitude towards compatriots living in Transnistria. Mr. Smirnov recalled that Ukraine continues to interfere with the transit of Pridnestrovian cargo without the appropriate permission from the Moldovan side, as a result of which the unrecognized republic is losing up to $35 million a year. Transnistrian economic agents were forced to compulsorily register cargo in Moldovan customs structures during the economic blockade of the PMR, organized in the spring of 2006 by Chisinau with the support of Brussels, Washington and Kyiv.

“By preventing the free movement of goods and people in the region, the Ukrainian side also suffers losses - not so noticeable on a national scale, but quite significant for the neighboring Odessa region,” PMR State Security Minister Vladimir Antyufeyev noted to Vremya Novostei. According to our interlocutor, the new president of Ukraine will be guided by pragmatic considerations and the country’s national interests, and not by the recommendations of Western powers. This could lead to a change in Kyiv’s approaches to many pressing issues for the region - from the Transnistrian settlement to Romania’s recent consent to deploy on its territory elements of the American missile defense (ABM) that pose a threat to the security of neighboring states, the minister concluded.

“The main thing is that we expect a radical improvement in relations between Russia and Ukraine. When two neighbors live in harmony, the third only benefits from this,” Grigory Marakutsa, special representative of the Supreme Council of the PMR for interparliamentary relations, explained to VN. He expects from Kyiv a more constructive approach to the problems of transit of Pridnestrovian goods and the resumption of full-fledged railway communication through the territory of the PMR, interrupted at the instigation of Chisinau in 2006. Regarding the missile defense issue, Mr. Marakutsa suggested that the negative public response and the statement of the President of the PMR about his consent to deploy Russian Iskander missiles on the territory of the republic in response to new Western plans to militarize the region could convince Bucharest to abandon the plan to host the American military base.

Changes in Ukrainian politics are also expected in Chisinau. The leader of the Moldovan movement “Equality” Valery Klimenko, in a conversation with VN, suggested that in response to the deployment of the American missile defense system in Romania, Moscow and Kyiv could make “joint efforts to form appropriate preemptive factors in Transnistria.” Our interlocutor believes that already this year Ukraine may withdraw from the “openly anti-Russian project” GUAM (the international organization that united Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova was created in 1997). The leader of Ravnopravia is also confident that Ukraine will successfully resolve economic issues that are vital for Pridnestrovie.

The director of programs at the Chisinau Institute of Public Policy, Oazu Nantoi, in an interview with VN, expressed doubt that “to please Tiraspol, Kyiv will spit on previous agreements with the European Union on border control and customs regulation, jeopardizing its own European aspirations and the prospects for a visa-free regime for Ukrainian citizens in the EU." At the same time, our interlocutor suggested that President Yanukovych would not be so careful with regard to the “stillborn” GUAM.

Pavel LUKYANCHENKO, Chisinau