Translated material
In one harness
Another single voting day was opened by deer
The regional election campaign is entering its final phase. In the constituent entities of the federation, early voting has already begun for elections to regional parliaments, scheduled for March 14. So far, the expression of the will of citizens is proceeding as usual and the election commissions have not received any complaints.Let us recall that as part of a single voting day on March 14, elections to the legislative assemblies of eight Russian regions will be held: the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Altai Republic, as well as the Sverdlovsk, Kurgan, Voronezh, Kaluga, Ryazan regions and the Khabarovsk Territory. In total, more than 6 thousand elections of various levels will take place on this day in 76 regions.
Early voting has already begun in hard-to-reach and remote areas of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. “Voting is taking place completely openly, and there are no complaints,” said Elena Dubrovina, a member of the Central Election Commission. She noted that even in remote areas of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, all political parties have the opportunity to observe the voting process. “There is no information from the commissions about complaints,” Ms. Dubrovina emphasized. Her colleague, CEC member Gennady Raikov, in turn, confirmed that “from a security point of view, everything is organized and proceeds without violations.” All-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, cars, helicopters, trains and even reindeer sleds are used for early voting. Early voting, which will last until March 13 inclusive, will cover 11 thousand voters living in hard-to-reach areas of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
About 32 million people, that is, about a third of the Russian electorate, can take part in the current regional elections. In total, almost 110 million voters are registered by the election commission systems, of which 1.7 million live abroad. “Compared to the data as of July 1, 2009, the absolute increase in voters in Russia was 136 thousand,” noted CEC Secretary Nikolai Konkin. In other words, despite the demographic crisis, the number of Russian voters is only increasing over time.
Political parties have already begun to argue about in whose favor these additional voters will fill out the ballots. The Secretary of the Presidium of the General Council of United Russia, Vyacheslav Volodin, citing data from some party opinion polls, has already stated that the party in power intends to win by a large margin. Previously, United Russia openly named 66% as a benchmark - the party's result in the 2007 parliamentary elections, which became a kind of standard. The “bears” threaten to push the communists into third place, and “A Just Russia” generally predicts failure to pass the seven percent barrier to regional legislative assemblies.
Meanwhile, in the last cycle of regional elections (2004-2005), the performance of United Russia in these federal subjects was far from the currently stated guidelines. In 2005, the “bears” managed to reach 60% only in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug; in the Kaluga Region and Khabarovsk Territory they reached 40%, and slightly less (38%) in the Sverdlovsk Region. In other regions, United Russia did not receive even 30%. But good results (up to 21% in the Voronezh region) were shown by the now defunct Rodina bloc, fragments of which later became part of A Just Russia. In addition, protest voting was popular in almost all regions - from 10 to 15% the candidate “against everyone” received 10 to 15%, now removed from elections at all levels for life.
The layout of the elections on March 14 will be radically different from the results of 4-5 years ago, although it is impossible to take into account all the factors influencing the will of voters. On the one hand, changes in legislation that prevented the creation of blocs and a reduction in the number of players in the political field simultaneously contributed to the concentration of administrative resources. On the other hand, the deepening economic crisis in the elections of March 1, 2009 has already caused fluctuations in the ratings of the party in power, and this trend may develop further.
However, experts believe that this time there will be no surprises. “United Russia” will maintain its results compared to other recent regional campaigns, says Alexey Makarkin, Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technologies. - It is unlikely that anything will change fundamentally. Although they say that the pressure of administrative resources will be reduced, there are many other factors that are unlikely to allow the situation to seriously change.”
In particular, the expert reminds, the global redistribution of votes is hampered by “the nature of party membership - blocs cannot be created, new parties do not appear, and existing ones cause fatigue and irritation in the voter.” The analyst notes that United Russia has a “swing voter” who is ready to change the party in power with an alternative political force, if one appears on the political field.
However, Mr. Makarkin emphasizes, “investors are not particularly invested in other parties.” “United Russia” is considered the most attractive object for investment, “A Just Russia” is much less popular - also as the party in power, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - as having a high chance of entering local parliaments at all levels. “Peripheral groups of local elites who are not included in the “United” and “Fair Russia” use the brand “Patriots of Russia,” the political scientist notes.
The only thing that will most likely distinguish March 14 from the October 11 elections is the absence of massive post-election scandals with demarches in the State Duma. “People have received some guidelines in this area,” explains Mr. Makarkin. This refers to the order given to the regional elites from the center not to bring pressure on the opposition to the point of absurdity. True, this is fraught with a decrease in the results of United Russia compared to the standard of December 2, 2007. As the political scientist notes, United Russia members are falling into the trap of their own high results: “If United Russia somewhere gets 50% of the votes—the figure in Europe is simply sky-high—we will be told of defeat.”
However, even 50%, taking into account traditional victories in single-mandate districts, would provide United Russia with control over regional parliaments. And the voting results, if necessary, can be politically correctly compared with elections 4-5 years ago. In any case, the growth of electoral support will be obvious.