The unemployed cannot be stopped

The number of registered unemployed Russians is approaching a critical level

Official unemployment in Russia continues to rise, despite confident statements from government officials that “the situation is under control.” According to the latest monitoring by the Federal Service for Labor and Employment (Rostrud), over the past week the number of unemployed Russians registered with employment services increased by 1%, reaching almost 2.3 million people. According to experts, if the labor market curve rises at such a pace, then the most negative forecasts will come true: that the level of hidden and registered unemployment in the near future will reach a “critical point” of 8-9 million people. And people who have been in “limbo” for several months without employment opportunities will have no choice but to go out into the streets, presenting political demands to the authorities, among other things.

The latest labor market monitoring data, announced yesterday by the press service of the Ministry of Health and Social Development, outlined a negative trend towards rising unemployment, which has been observed for the fifth week in a row. In total, since the beginning of 2010, the number of unemployed citizens in the country has increased by approximately 1.5% per week. The research results of the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat), which, unlike Rostrud, also takes into account the so-called hidden unemployment, also do not inspire optimism. According to statisticians, in January alone, the total number of unemployed in Russia increased by 10% and amounted to 6.8 million people (9.2% of the country’s economically active population), and judging by the dynamics, this figure will grow.

At the same time, officials of the Ministry of Health and Social Development, when publishing their statistics, focus on comparing the growth rate of unemployment with last year's - at the beginning of 2009, the army of those who lost their jobs increased by an average of 3.8% per week. But in terms of the number of people registered with employment services, we have already reached last year’s peak figures, and so far we have not been able to reverse the trend. Although government officials in charge of the employment sector demonstrate rare calm, the actual state of affairs with the employment of Russians rather confirms the concerns of Dmitry Medvedev, who, during a recent meeting with the head of the Ministry of Health and Social Development, Tatyana Golikova, called the unemployment problem “the main one in 2010.” “Despite the fact that there is a decline in the economic crisis and a general economic recovery is taking place, the crisis is structured in such a way that even with this economic recovery, unemployment may increase,” the head of state explained his concern. And, even despite the fact that the minister tried to reassure the president, noting that “a significant part of the regions have shown positive employment dynamics over several weeks,” Mr. Medvedev asked the department and regional administrations “not to weaken their attention to the labor market and to the implementation of programs to create new jobs."

The head of state’s concern is understandable, given the fact that in the near future the prospect of crossing the critical line of 8-9 million unemployed, which many experts announced at the beginning of the crisis, seems quite likely. Moreover, according to representatives of trade unions, unemployment is stimulated not only by the crisis and financial difficulties at enterprises, but also by the actions of the authorities - in particular law enforcement agencies. As you know, the Prosecutor General’s Office was mobilized to be responsible for the stability of the payment of wages to Russians, which launched an active prosecution of employers who owed money to their employees. “Thus, faced with pressure from the authorities and not wanting to get on various kinds of blacklists, a significant part of the owners of enterprises paid off their debts by December,” Secretary of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia Alexander Shershukov told Vremya Novostey. However, according to Mr. Shershukov, the consequence of reducing wage debts was sometimes the “optimization of production,” during which companies simply fired workers.

At the beginning of the year, the FNPR, whose experts studied the plans for curtailing production presented by employers, published a pessimistic forecast - in the first six months of 2010, unemployment could rise by 10-15%. In the worst-case scenario, there could be between 2.5 and 3 million people officially registered as having lost their jobs by the summer. “And the point is not even that this figure is critical, but that people’s feeling of hopelessness is growing,” Oleg Shein, a State Duma deputy from A Just Russia and deputy chairman of the Committee on Labor and Social Policy, explained to Vremya Novostei. According to the deputy, such a depressing situation may prompt citizens to go out into the streets. “If a person cannot find a job for two months, that’s one thing. But if he cannot find a job for two years, that’s completely different,” says Mr. Shein. At the same time, he notes that this year the problem of unemployment is much more acute than in the past, “and then everything will be even worse.” “The state is very actively eating through accumulated reserves, and there may be no money left to support production and freeze unemployment problems. Without serious reforms, problems will only grow,” the deputy believes.

The head of the Center for Social Research at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Evgeniy Gontmakher, also agrees that the employment problem cannot be solved by “manual” methods, and macroeconomic reforms are needed. “Increasing benefits, retraining programs - these are all palliatives; serious reforms are needed. Unemployment will stop growing only when the state begins to fight it through the development of small and medium-sized businesses and by increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian economy,” Mr. Gontmakher noted in a conversation with a Vremya Novostei correspondent. True, unlike Deputy Shein, he does not yet see reasons for serious social tension. “At least in the near future nothing terrible will happen. Social protests will begin not when the number of unemployed exceeds a critical level, but if employment problems continue for a long time,” says Evgeniy Gontmakher.

Vyacheslav KOZLOV