With faith in the dollar

Major players in the foreign exchange market - banks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup stopped betting on a decline in the dollar. According to experts, if the credit crisis in Europe intensifies, the American currency may rise to $1.1 per euro. “We clearly foresee that the European credit crisis will put pressure on the euro,” the Goldman Sachs research team led by Thomas Stolper said in a report. -- It is becoming increasingly difficult for eurozone countries to maintain consensus. These political contradictions have a much greater impact on the euro than other factors." In turn, Citigroup analysts Todd Elmer and Michael Hart noted that the bank reduced losses on foreign exchange transactions after it was recognized that “the choice of strategy was untimely.”

The dollar's rally against the euro has been going on for five months. The position of the American currency is strengthening against the background of the strengthening of the US economy, moderate inflation and growth of the country's stock market. Economists are raising their forecasts for the dollar, believing it is set for its sharpest rise since March last year, when the currency rally ended at its strongest in 28 years amid the US government's massive stimulus programs.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group chief currency strategist Alan Raskin believes the dollar could rise 22% to $1.1 per euro if the credit crisis worsens. “If one of the countries leaves the eurozone or if one of the countries defaults, the mark of 1.1 dollars per euro may well be reached,” Mr. Raskin said in an interview with Bloomberg. A year ago, he correctly predicted the fall of the dollar amid the injection of large amounts of funds into the economy. At the same time, the US economy looks better compared to the economies of other developed countries. “The biggest fears are behind us. The US economy managed to get back on its feet. This March looks very good compared to last year,” said Mr. Raskin.

The yen also cannot yet compete with the dollar, as deflation continues in Japan. Consumer prices there fell significantly in February. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Japan's economic growth from 2011 to 2017 will be the slowest among the G7 countries, at about 0.9%.

The forecast for a stronger dollar is strengthened by expectations of new policy from the Federal Reserve. Experts believe that the American central bank will stop printing money in huge quantities and begin to raise rates. At the same time, the growth of the US economy may be twice as high as that of Europe and Japan.

Last week, the dollar rose against major currencies: against the euro - by about 1%, to $1.341, against the pound sterling - by 0.8%, to $1.489, against the Japanese yen - by 2.2 %, up to 92.52 yen. However, yesterday the American currency was losing ground amid growing investor optimism and increased interest in risks: against the euro it fell by 0.3%, to $1.345, against the pound - by 0.6%, to $1.498. “After As concerns about the biggest risks, such as a Greek default or the European debt crisis, have eased, the euro has begun to strengthen against major currencies,” Barclays Plc chief currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto said in a report. "The euro has benefited significantly from easing worries about Greece, but its move higher is not very significant," Wells Fargo currency strategist Vasily Serebryakov told CNN Money.com. “We remain negative about the prospects for the euro in the near and medium term.”

On the Russian market, the dollar exchange rate increased yesterday by 11 kopecks, to 29.63 rubles, the euro exchange rate - by 48 kopecks, to 39.86 rubles. The cost of the bi-currency basket increased by about 3 kopecks by the close of trading. and amounted to 34.16 rubles. At the beginning of trading, the ruble exchange rate fell by about 10 kopecks. to the cost of the basket against the backdrop of terrorist attacks in the Moscow metro.

Nikolay KOCHELYAGIN