Translated material
President without Maidan
Last chance for Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych
On Independence Square in Kyiv - the famous Independence Square - no rallies will be held now, despite the reason: presidential elections will be held in Ukraine on January 17. The district administrative court of the capital, at the request of the city authorities, banned, without explaining the reasons, the holding of mass events on the Maidan in the period from January 9 to February 5. So in the square where the “Orange Revolution” took place in 2004, everything will be calm.The favorites of the big Ukrainian race express their understanding of the fact that there will be no new Maidan as a result of the presidential elections this time in different ways. Viktor Yanukovych, in the heat of controversy, tried to “book” the Maidan for January 17 and the next few days by submitting an appropriate application. However, the PR content of this maneuver was more defensive than offensive, an attempt to deprive the enemy of their usual springboard, nothing more. After the court banned meetings on the Maidan the day before yesterday, Yanukovych’s supporters urgently renewed their applications for rallies in other areas of the capital.
But the other candidate, Yulia Tymoshenko, has different campaign approaches. The current prime minister, as if paying tribute to the glorious history, is also mobilizing Maidan groups, but her rhetoric boils down to the fact that the victory will be so unconditional that she simply no longer needs any Maidan.
The reality now is that the favorites are unlikely to like it: no mobilization call will induce voters to repeat what happened in Kyiv five years ago. As the famous Ukrainian political scientist, director of the Kyiv Institute of Political Studies and Conflictology, Mikhail Pogrebinsky, noted in an interview with Vremya Novostei, the situation has changed: “Five years ago, everything was perceived as a war of good and evil. Now, neither Yanukovych’s victory nor Tymoshenko’s victory will be perceived by anyone as a disaster.”
Yanukovych has never been a popular idol in the east, just as the leaders of the “orange” have never really been idols in the west and in the center of the country. Ukrainians have always known the value of their chosen ones, and even on the Maidan the crowd did not hide its condescension towards the winners - this is how the crowd generally treats those whom, as it is sure, it has made its leaders. However, in the conditions of that very war of good and evil, the romantic impulse became part of politics. Now, if the leaders of the election race have pleased anyone, it is only the skeptics, with whom we can only agree. Choosing the lesser evil has never brought anyone to the square.
Unlike voters, the main characters in the election action seem to be aware that the current stakes may be much greater than even five years ago. Then it was possible to lose - life did not end there, and for Viktor Yanukovych, by and large, only then did it begin.
Now you can't lose.
Now 59-year-old Yanukovych is the favorite, with most polls promising him undoubted success in the first round, and almost all in the second. As Pogrebinsky notes, “not winning in such a situation means dooming yourself to certain political death.” Moreover, the main holder of political shares in the Ukrainian east, Rinat Akhmetov, has long been burdened by the figure of his delegate in power. But five years ago Donetsk had no other figures. Now, in this environment, there are quite a few people who can wear a tailcoat. But what is more important is that Donetsk itself ceases to be a political term. The discussion has long ceased to take place in the genre of the war of orange and white and blue roses. Political opposition does not at all acquire the features of a struggle of ideas, but gradually ceases to be what it was long considered: a battle between the progressive West and the pro-Soviet East. So there is someone to replace Yanukovych, and therefore he is throwing all his resources into the battle and is winning so far.
At first glance, the situation for 49-year-old Yulia Tymoshenko is not so fatal. It is irreplaceable in its own way; even in the event of defeat, it will remain the force that can either fundamentally ruin the life of any government, or force any government to come to an agreement with itself, or both. But unlike Yanukovych, Tymoshenko is a passionate charismatic. She has been preparing for this triumph for too long - back in those days when it never occurred to anyone to talk seriously about such a competitor as Yanukovych. Losing today is a severe blow, the pain of which neither opposition leadership nor intrigue can soften. All life and political schedules were set for 2010, and now in the event of a defeat (which could turn out to be almost devastating), she will have to stock up on patience for the new five-year period, and it is by no means a fact that she has it. Yulia Tymoshenko still holds her own, her cheerful charm is still an indestructible political weapon. But the years go by, and we will have to move away from the former image for completely objective reasons.
In short, the loser in this race loses either everything, or so much that it looks like almost everything. But this is five years after the “Orange Revolution”, tears already invisible to the world. These spiritual passions of the favorites no longer seem to interest anyone at all, even in Ukraine itself. This is a new and completely unexplored facet of the protracted transition period in Ukrainian. The voter approaches his choice quite philosophically and almost in a European way, having learned to guess that his life depends on this choice much less fatally than was thought about it five years ago. And those who have to be chosen, as if filling a pause before the emergence of a new political generation, are forced to play up old numbers and settle old scores among themselves, considering this battle the main matter of their political life. They had been preparing for too long for their first real fight between themselves, and now it turned out that it would be the last. After all, the current loser will probably never take revenge from the winner.