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The ruble breaks records
The dollar exchange rate was 29.2 rubles yesterday, and the euro exchange rate fell by 24 kopecks, to 39.39 rubles, this is the minimum value over the past 15 months. However, experts point to the high volatility of the market, and therefore, if the oil market changes, the success of the ruble may come to naught. At the same time, analysts are raising their forecast for the dollar exchange rate, since, unlike the European currency, it is in great demand on the international Forex market.During the trading day, the cost of the bi-currency basket, which consists of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros, reached 33.7 rubles, that is, the highest level since the end of 2008. The trading volume of the dollar-ruble pair amounted to $2.6 billion. According to dealers, at the beginning of the session the Central Bank shifted the floating corridor of bi-currency basket quotes from 33.8--36.8 to 33.75--36.75 rubles, buying about 700 million dollars.
As you know, in February, against the backdrop of rapid growth in commodity prices, the Central Bank was forced to allow the ruble to strengthen, moving the boundaries of the currency corridor from 35-38 to 33.85-37.85 rubles. to the bi-currency basket. The Central Bank shifts the demand mark by 5 kopecks. every time it buys $700 million to curb the exchange rate of the national currency. “Starting from the last ten days of January, the ruble has shown a steady strengthening,” says Dmitry Kharlampiev, leading analyst at Petrocommerce Bank. “The tactical factors of growth are transparent and well known - these are favorable conditions on the oil market, the presence of a net influx of capital, and the investment community’s moderate assessment of Russia’s country risk.” However, he added: “In view of the revision of the average annual forecast rate of the dollar/euro, for objective reasons we decided to adjust the medium-term forecast for this pair and the value of the bi-currency basket. According to the updated forecast, the average exchange rate this year should tend to 29.28 rubles. (previously 28.48 rubles), and the cost of the bi-currency basket should be 34.43 rubles. (previously RUB 34.35).”
According to technical analysis methods, the nearest target for the value of the basket is 33.5 rubles, which in the case of a short-term movement of the dollar against the euro to the level of 1.38 implies an exchange rate of 28.6 rubles. However, so far this level (33.5 rubles) seems too ambitious, especially considering the increased volatility in the market and the shortage of short-term investment ideas, Mr. Kharlampiev emphasizes.
According to the forecast of the head of the analytical department of the Forex Club company, Alexey Trifonov, on the international foreign exchange market the expected range of movement for the dollar/euro pair will be 1.335--1.37.
Despite the growth in non-farm payrolls in the US economy, the unemployment rate remains high. “This fact does not allow us to count on an increase in interest rates overseas in the near future, as recent statements by the heads of the Federal Reserve System in different regions of America make clear,” notes Mr. Trifonov. -- This week will be the week of rates - decisions on their monetary policy and base interest rates are going to be published by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of Australia. One of the main topics, along with rates, will be the problem of debtor countries, namely Greece and Portugal, unresolved issues with which put pressure on the single European currency.”