Kyrgyzstan, my love

Oh, a beautiful city of Bishkek! Marauders wandered through the streets on April 7-8, shootings were heard (that is, eyewitnesses saw them, heard, shot and told us). The battles of the epic Kyrgyz heroes ended in arson of government buildings and even the plunder of the Museum of Fine Arts.

What is happening there? Anti -Orange Revolution? Bakiev went too far with a stick with repression and the people rebelled? Is the poor, dysfunctional country tired of poverty and clanity? It is probably all that is all, but if you approach the issue strictly - and what's the difference?

Remember how in 2005 many discussed that Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan will follow the "orange revolutions" in other countries of the post -Soviet space? Then there was such a framework for political science analysis - they overthrow from Ukraine too much. And one tabloid even found a trace of the bloody oligarchs of Berezovsky, non -Zeripaska and Deripaska behind the Kyrgyz events. Then there was such a frame of business conspiracyology: since Russian business is buying a lot of things abroad, it means in politics there (in Russia it is impossible) it was not without business.

Time heals from illusions and dubious generalizations - not all, but heals. Incomprehensible oppositions during the next (what already in a row? The fifth? The sixth?) The authorities seized power and while holding it back. Their coalition, apparently, briefly survived the current revolution. At least the previous coalition fell apart almost immediately after the “Tulips Revolution”, and the bunch of President Bakiev and the Prime Minister of the Iron Felix Kulov finally broke up a year and a half after the creation.

Russia has lost influence in Central Asia over the past 20 years. Handing away one position, then another. Either Turkmenbashi rinses the abolition of dual citizenship, then the President of Tajikistan declares the Russian language “optional” for the country. Repressions against the Russian -speaking population were even in civilized Kazakhstan. There are few agents of Russia's influence in the region, there are almost no military bases, Russian border guards from Tajikistan were once bred. Only Russian corporations remain a large agent of influence. Oil and gas - in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Projects in many areas, including space, atomic industry (primarily the extraction and enrichment of uranium) and other minerals, were also promised with Kazakhstan. Gazprom is in Turkmenistan. Interrao - in Tajikistan (there was still a "russal", but negotiations with the Rahmon regime even for Deripaska a problem). Cell operators are everywhere.

Everywhere the eastern trick, obsessed with the Russian “Kidalov”, but businessmen somehow tolerate and adapt. Moreover, the counterparties still speak Russian and graduated from the same universities. But in Kyrgyzstan, there is less interesting for Russian business. Fruits, drug trafficking and cotton in some places-this is not engaged in a serious large business in Russia. The power networks and the oil and gas company - under the state control - whatever in Kyrgyzstan means. The rest of the industry during the presidency of Askar Akayev was in his close hands. There is uranium and gold in Kyrgyzstan, but they did not attract the attention of Russian business. There is a Russian population, but only a few percent, even Uzbeks living in the south of the country, are more.

Bases and other geopolitics? Yes, Russia is not interested in the "explosion" of the Ferghana Valley, with subsequent distribution, God knows what to the adjacent Uzbekistan, for example. However, the Karimov regime Moscow is also not fully cute. Islamization of the region would be a very disturbing event, but so far such a scenario seems catastrophic, and not potentially possible in the near future. Yes. Russia played by credit muscles last year, providing Kyrgyzstan for free help and an interest -free loan in exchange, it seems, to close the American base in Manas. The base was promised to close and immediately opened again, but under another sign. Is it worth supporting such Bakiev? You might think another Kyrgyz president would have acted differently. In the end, the American base is some kind of, and the factor stabilizing the situation, but they also pay money for it.

Money for Kyrgyzstan - countries currently agricultural by almost 90 percent is a very important circumstance. GDP for the soul is 1 thousand dollars. According to the parity of purchasing power in 2008 - a little more - 1.7 thousand (less in the CIS only in Tajikistan). GDP - 5 billion, debt - in the region of 2. By Russian standards, all Kyrgyzstan - Ulyanovsk, Kirovsky or Ryazan region (to choose from - there was a comparable gross regional product in 2008). Export to Russia? 450-500 million dollars a year (2008). Import - the same (but China provides more than two -thirds of the Kyrgyz imports with a total volume of approximately 4 billion). In Russia, the turnover with Algeria and Tunisia (separately) is one and a half times more. With Portugal (far from the main partner of Russia in the EU) is a comparable turnover.

Without the interests of your own business there, with a small share of the Russian -speaking population (in any case, there are more than 500 thousand Russians in the Ulyanovsk, Kirov or Ryazan region), almost without minerals - who needs it, Kyrgyzstan to still understand which of the guys are good and who is bad? Let China understand. We get up over the fight, wait for who will win. He will come once a year for the CIS summits and other CSTOs.

No, it is possible, judging by the angry Russian reaction, they say, we did not arrange that we were offended firmly at Bakiev and encouraged the opposition with the assurances that we would love them. Prime Minister Putin has already promised to one of the opposition there (specifically Madame Otunbaeva, which became the head of the “government of popular trust”), when she said that she would not prevent them. But what's the difference to Russian citizens? We are shown a beautiful picture from a place from the next banana (tulip) republic. Marauders? And where are the vuduists? Isn't it Haiti? Ah, Kyrgyzstan. Well, it's like our Haiti.