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Crisis: behind or ahead?
Disputes between experts may reflect differences in views between the president and the prime minister
The Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR), which recently presented the results of an international study “Models of Post-Crisis Development,” warned about new dangers awaiting Russia on its path to prosperity. Institute experts believe that a resource-based economy, coupled with poor management quality, will inevitably give rise to a new wave of economic crisis in the country. As a result, the status of Russia's leader in the post-Soviet space may be in question. The future is painted in rather alarming terms in the report, although, according to many analysts, there are no more reasons for such alarming sentiments today than ever before. This is already the second report from INSOR containing rather critical assessments, whose board of trustees is headed by Dmitry Medvedev. In February 2010, INSOR presented the report “Russia of the 21st Century: The Image of the Desired Tomorrow.” That report substantiated the need for very serious changes in the country’s domestic and foreign policy.The international study “Models of Post-Crisis Development” was prepared by the Institute for Post-Crisis World based on the results of a survey of almost 250 experts from 53 countries, including China, Japan, India, the USA and Russia. The respondents included economists, scientists, financial analysts, owners of leading companies, politicians and officials. 85% of them expect a new round of crisis in the next decade. In 2009, according to the experts interviewed, not only was the economic and financial failure not overcome, but also a global crisis emerged - civilizational, geopolitical. There is a redistribution of economic spheres of influence ahead, an intense struggle for resources and for leadership in technology. Stocks of raw materials or weapons, according to experts, will not help in this fight. Countries with poor governance, unstable economies and declining populations risk being pushed to the margins of global development. Russia fully satisfies all these criteria, which means it is a potential victim of the coming geopolitical crisis.
But a chance to get ahead appears for the former “second-tier” countries, which will take their toll not with resources or weapons, but with “high-quality human capital” and technology. New leaders may well challenge Russia's leading role in the former Soviet Union. In particular, Kazakhstan and Ukraine could lay claim to leadership. Outside the CIS, China and the European Union are becoming attractive centers of gravity. So for Russia, for now we are no longer talking about global leadership, but about regional leadership.
No less questionable are the reasons that prompted INSOR to make such alarming statements. “I would not exaggerate the status of this report,” Dmitry Orlov, general director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, told a Vremya Novostey correspondent. -- The “Institute for Post-Crisis World” is one of INSOR’s partners, which in turn has some relation to President Medvedev. But this is still too much of a by-product to say that it reflects the point of view of the authorities.”
The analyst notes that among the experts surveyed there are too many opponents of the existing system. “The scenario turned out to be extremely alarmist and unfavorable,” Mr. Orlov criticizes his colleagues. - Although there are other forecasts for the country’s socio-economic development. For example, the PriceWaterhouseCoopers forecast, according to which Russia can become the economically leading power in Europe in the foreseeable future.” In general, according to the expert, there are “no discoveries” in the study, and it “rather pursues political goals”: “I do not exclude that we are talking about demonstrating the not very effective work of the socio-economic block of the government or the government as a whole "
In turn, General Director of the National Strategy Council (SNS) Valery Khomyakov believes that the report reflects “those moods, ideas and anxieties that exist in the president’s circle.” “There are more benevolent or optimistic sentiments around Prime Minister Putin, saying that the crisis has almost resolved,” Mr. Khomyakov believes.
From an analyst’s point of view, the alarming study reflects a real reformatting of world politics, so “it is difficult to accuse INSOR of bias” or unfounded alarmism. “Medvedev’s circle is more committed to modernization, while Putin’s circle is closer to the concept of stabilization,” says the general director of the SNS. “Personally, it’s unlikely that anyone will be able to pit Medvedev and Putin against each other, but it’s no secret that there is a bureaucratic struggle going on between their entourage.” And the alarming notes heard in the report published by INSOR are its echo.