Translated material
Uneven GDP
The IMF predicts that Russia's economy will grow by 4% this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2010 by 0.3 percentage points, to 4.2%. However, this growth will be provided mainly by the Asian region, and some European countries will even show a decline in GDP. This is stated in the IMF World Economic Outlook report, prepared as part of the spring meetings of the management of the fund and the World Bank, which are to take place this coming weekend.The recovery of the global economy after a severe crisis is going better than expected, IMF experts say. According to new estimates, global economic growth this year will be 4.2%, and in 2011 - 4.3%. The volume of world trade in goods and services, which fell by more than 10% in 2009, is expected to grow by 7% this year and by another 6.1% in 2011. The average oil price, based on data on futures supplies to the market, is expected to be $80 per barrel in 2010 and $83 in 2011. Last year it was about $62 per barrel. The economies of Russia and the CIS countries will grow by 4% this year versus 3.8% in the January forecast.
At the same time, the IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the CIS countries in 2011 to 3.6 from 4%. The forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2011 was lowered to 3.3% from the previous 3.4. Inflation in Russia, according to the IMF, will be 7% this year and 5.7% in 2011.
IMF experts note that the basis for the recovery of the Russian economy this year will be a low base and an increase in inventories. Despite relatively high oil prices and significant government stimulus, domestic demand is likely to decline, with bad debt in the banking system holding back lending and consumption. For most CIS economies, growth prospects depend mainly on the speed of recovery in Russia. At the same time, rising prices for raw materials and normalization of foreign trade may provide some support to them.
China and India will remain the engines of global economic growth. In Spain, which is currently experiencing a budget crisis, GDP is expected to decline by 0.4%. Fund specialists warn that debt problems of developed countries, including the United States, are the main risk factor. “The global economic recovery is better than expected, but at different paces: weak in many advanced economies and strong in most emerging and developing economies,” the report said. -- Among advanced economies, the United States has started its recovery better than Europe and Japan. Among emerging market and developing economies, Asia has achieved the fastest growth rates, while many emerging market countries in Europe and some CIS countries are lagging behind. This process of rising at varying rates is expected to continue.”
Economic activity in the world still needs to be supported, according to fund experts. Meanwhile, the opportunities for appropriate “political maneuvers” have sharply decreased, and “financial and budgetary vulnerability factors have come to the fore.” In this regard, the fund calls for "a smooth redistribution of demand from the public sector to the private sector and from countries with excessive external deficits to countries with excessive surpluses."
“Most advanced economies should continue to maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies in 2010 to help maintain growth and employment levels. However, many of these countries also urgently need to adopt a medium-term strategy to contain the growth of public debt and subsequently reduce it to a more reasonable level, the report notes. -- Normalization and reform of the financial sector are also of paramount importance. Many emerging market economies have returned to strong growth rates, and a number of these countries have begun to scale back accommodative macroeconomic policies in the face of large capital inflows. With relatively slow growth expected in advanced economies, the challenge for emerging market economies is to absorb these growing financial inflows and help strengthen domestic demand without triggering a new boom-bust cycle.”