Translated material
Explosive Protocols
The scandal between Armenia and Turkey undermines stability in the Caucasus
Armenian-Turkish relations, which had just begun to improve (including through the mediation of Moscow), resulted in a loud scandal. The occasion was the 95th anniversary of the tragic page of the First World War, which in Armenia, Russia and many other states is officially considered the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire. It began on April 24, 1915. In Armenia itself and Armenian communities outside its borders, this date is now celebrated with a special feeling. Demonstrations of many thousands were a response from Turkey, which continues to deny the historical fact and at the same time puts forward unacceptable conditions for the normalization of relations with Armenia.This situation forced the 55-year-old President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan to suspend the ratification procedure in the country’s parliament of the protocols “On the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations” and “On the Development of Bilateral Relations” between Yerevan and Ankara signed on October 10, 2009 in Zurich . In a televised address to the nation on April 22, the head of state blamed Turkey for disrupting the process: “It is not ready to move forward without preconditions, in accordance with the spirit and letter of the protocols.” Both documents have not yet been ratified by the Turkish side. “Reasonable deadlines, in our opinion, have expired,” the Armenian president said.
Leading world powers expressed disappointment with the new crisis in Armenian-Turkish relations. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Andrei Nesterenko confirmed that “Armenia and Turkey at this stage have not been able to achieve a result that would allow restoring relations between the two neighboring states and thereby improving the political atmosphere in Transcaucasia, creating the preconditions for strengthening stability in this region.” . But he expressed hope that “the two countries will be able to overcome the difficult situation,” recalling that “all states in the region are interested in normalization.” According to US Assistant Secretary of State Philip Crowley, Washington is counting on the same thing: “We urge both sides to leave the door open to continue reconciliation efforts.”
The President of Armenia announced the decision to suspend the ratification of bilateral protocols exactly one year after the start of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue. On April 22, 2009, the foreign ministries of the two countries issued a joint statement that they had agreed on a “comprehensive settlement” of relations. And already on October 10, 2009, in Zurich, the foreign ministers of the two countries, Edward Nalbandian and Ahmet Davutoglu, in the presence of colleagues from Russia, the USA, and France, signed two protocols, pledging to ratify them within a reasonable time and without preconditions. However, Turkey, which has been blocking the border with Armenia since 1993 as a sign of support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, tried to link the normalization of relations with the Karabakh settlement, although the protocols did not even mention Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Turkey, using Armenia’s interest in opening the border and establishing relations, turned the Karabakh problem into a mechanism of pressure on the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group on Karabakh - Russia, the USA and France - and even began to apply for membership in this group. And Armenia made a retaliatory move - it suspended the ratification process,” Manvel Sargsyan, an expert at the Armenian Center for National and Strategic Studies, explained to Vremya Novostey. “The situation has reached a dead end thanks to the efforts of the Turkish side,” Ruben Safrastyan, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, confirmed to Vremya Novostey. He noted that President Sargsyan, like many in Armenia, considered it necessary to completely revoke Armenia’s signature on the protocols. But, having complied with the requests of Russia, the USA and France, the president only suspended the ratification process.
Not everyone in Yerevan supported this step. The opposition Armenian National Congress, led by former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, called Serzh Sargsyan’s decision “a recognition of the bankruptcy of his foreign policy”: “The only opportunity to stop this vicious process is the early removal of the current regime and the formation of legitimate power through early elections.”
However, Ruben Safrastyan is confident that there is no alternative to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and this process will sooner or later begin again. But this will happen either on the basis of improved versions of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, or after the signing of new documents: “Everything depends on Turkey. If she changes her position, the process will continue. If Ankara links this with the Karabakh problem, then everything will remain in its current frozen state.”
Former head of the Nagorno-Karabakh Foreign Ministry and ex-presidential candidate of Armenia Arman Melikyan also does not consider the process of normalizing relations a failure. But he, in a conversation with VN, expressed the opinion that the protocols themselves are “already becoming a thing of the past.” In his opinion, the problem will most likely be discussed during the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Turkey (according to VN, it is planned for May). “And in general, the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations can come under the patronage of Moscow,” Mr. Melikyan is sure. He does not exclude that over time, Moscow “may put pressure on the authorities of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to force them to make concessions,” although, “given the degree of mistrust in Russia’s relations with Turkey, there is hardly any need to fear this now.” As for the United States and the European Union, they, according to our interlocutor, “can simply relieve themselves of any responsibility for the future of Turkey, which today is a big burden for them.”
In the meantime, in Yerevan and especially in Ankara, they are emotionally discussing the statement of US President Barack Obama, made on the day of remembrance of Armenians on April 24. America, unlike Russia, has not yet officially recognized the events of 1915 as genocide, although Obama himself promised to do so during the election campaign. “I have repeatedly emphasized my view of what happened then, and my position has not changed. It is in our common interests to recognize the facts,” Obama now said, but again avoided mentioning the term “genocide.” Instead, he called what happened in the Ottoman Empire 95 years ago “one of the worst atrocities of the 20th century.”
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan noted that the US President's statement "showed how much the American administration took note of Ankara's concerns about this issue." The Turkish Foreign Ministry, however, reacted more sharply: “We regret this incorrect and politically one-sided statement... No nation can impose its historical memory on another.”