Translated material
The third one is not superfluous
Political scientists began to discuss the results of the 2012 presidential elections
Domestic political scientists are making their first attempts to look into the future and solve the “2012 problem.” Possible scenarios for the presidential elections awaiting the country in two years are considered in their analytical report by the Director General of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov, the Deputy Director of the Research Institute of Social Systems of Moscow State University Dmitry Badovsky and the President of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation Mikhail Vinogradov.According to experts, there are three scenarios on the political agenda in Russia - inertial, providing for the re-nomination and election of the current head of state, Dmitry Medvedev, as president; return to the Kremlin of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; and, finally, the third scenario - with the nomination of a new first person. True, the new “Mr. X” will not necessarily immediately sit in the presidential chair: the formation of a kind of triumvirate is possible in place of the current tandem.
In favor of the re-election of Dmitry Medvedev, according to political scientists, is the “high degree of inertia of the political process in Russia” and the tendency to choose from the possible options the least conflicting one, which does not imply “fundamental changes in the existing balance.” In this case, Mr. Medvedev, “both according to obvious political logic and precedent,” will have to be nominated as a presidential candidate by United Russia. However, the leader of United Russia remains Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who is not a member of the party, and therefore there have long been speculations about the creation of a new alternative party of power “under Medvedev.” However, in the time remaining before the 2011 parliamentary elections, it is almost impossible to promote a new party even to the level of overcoming the seven percent threshold. And the authors of the report consider the alliance of the systemic opposition represented by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, A Just Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party to be “politically and technologically impossible”: in their opinion, there can be no talk of any single candidate in this case.
Nevertheless, the inertial scenario may also be fraught with certain surprises: for example, “attempts to appeal to the president with a call to abandon the “shackles” of the tandem and begin searching for a new candidate for the prime minister’s post in 2012 cannot be ruled out.” And all because, analysts explain, that “the base of public support for the president and the prime minister today are not completely identical”: in their opinion, Mr. Putin is the leader of an inertial majority, aimed rather at maintaining the status quo, and Mr. Medvedev - leader of a modernizing minority.
It is this difference that makes it quite possible for Vladimir Putin to return to the presidency: the Constitution does not prevent this, since the Basic Law prohibits only two consecutive terms, but says nothing about a third term after a break. In addition, for the first time, Russia will elect a president for six years, and this six-year term can then be considered as the first for any of the candidates, including Mr. Putin.
In this case, the message for the electorate can be considered pre-formulated. Vladimir Putin will appear before his admirers in the image of a “national leader”, from whom emanates “calm strength”, as a “winner of the crisis”, who at the same time “satisfied the demand of society for development”. True, it will be difficult for some overly inquisitive part of society to explain why the country needs Putin’s third term. “Obviously, in this case the image of a “new hero” will be in demand,” political scientists cautiously suggest in their report.
At the same time, the likelihood of “direct electoral competition” between the leaders of the tandem, that is, their simultaneous nomination in 2012, seems to the authors of the report “virtually zero.” But the emergence of a third figure in the larger political scenario is not excluded. Analysts believe that Putin and Medvedev will not necessarily maintain the tandem in its existing or mirrored form, exchanging chairs. For a change, they could “expand the system of personal leadership to include a new prime minister, while simultaneously increasing the political role of some institutions.”
In practice, this means that if Mr. Putin returns to the Kremlin, Mr. Medvedev could head the Constitutional Court or the “qualitatively new” Supreme Court combined with it. Or under President Medvedev, Putin will move to the State Duma as the leader of the leading parliamentary party. In both cases, an as-yet unidentified “third leader” will come to the White House. Analysts note that signs of a transition to such a triumvirate could be “the publication of relevant draft constitutional innovations,” as well as “partial reorganization and reshuffles in the current government in 2011.”