In the near future we can expect new eruptions of Icelandic volcanoes

With a request to tell about the latest news about the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, we turned to Pavel Plechov, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Petrology, Faculty of Geology, Moscow State University. Interviewed by Natalia Demina.

“ Now the eruption is declining, the situation is stabilizing, the consumption of magma is gradually decreasing. I think this eruption will end soon. At the same time, Icelandic volcanologists predict new eruptions.

— What are the forecasts?

- They are vague. Apparently, complete information does not yet exist, and scientists do not want to cause panic among the population. There is geophysical data that shows that some kind of tension is brewing in the magmatic system of the Katla volcano. There are messages from Icelandic politicians in the spirit of “get ready, take heart,” but I have not yet seen more definitive information from Icelandic volcanologists.

— Can scientists now make reliable forecasts on the activity of the volcano?

- Yes. This eruption was predicted about a month in advance. Seismic activity began in late December 2009, the volcano was intensively monitored since January 2010, and on February 26 it was predicted that an eruption was imminent. It started on March 20, i.e. the forecast was given about a month in advance.

The second, more active phase of the eruption was also predicted, but literally a few hours in advance.

Perhaps the next eruption will occur in the coming days. In recent decades, eruption forecasts have been made in advance, and, as a rule, local authorities have enough time to evacuate people. But the strength of the eruption itself and its local/global consequences are still difficult to predict; this is due to many factors, for example, meteorological conditions.

— Is there any data on the analysis of the ash of Eyjafjallajokull?

— It is worth noting that the composition of the ash of this eruption underwent an interesting evolution: the ash of the very first emissions, which occurred at the end of March, were undersaturated with silica (46-47% wt.), and the eruption that sent ash to Europe already contained 57- 58% silica, 7% alkali. While early lavas can be called alkaline olivine basalts, trachyndesites are currently erupting . These are completely different magmas, with different viscosity and different contents of volatile components.

By the way, an international team of volcanologists currently working in Iceland has already analyzed the volatile components in the eruption products, assessed the emission of sulfur into the atmosphere and many other parameters of the current eruption. It’s a pity that there is not a single Russian volcanologist on this team. With the data that could be obtained in Moscow, we will not be able to contribute to the study of the eruption and can only follow the results of researchers from other countries.

— Will this eruption affect the climate?

— There is not yet enough information to judge whether the eruption will have any impact on the Earth’s climate. The volume of erupted products is small, estimated at approximately 0.1 km3. With such a volume of eruption, the climate effect will not be noticeable. As a rule, large eruptions are followed by a decrease in average annual temperatures by fractions of degrees, rarely by degrees. So far this eruption is not considered major.

— How many volcanoes are there in the world? How many of them are active? Please provide statistics for the overall picture...

— It is almost impossible to calculate the total number of volcanoes. More than 10 thousand volcanoes have been described, of which approximately 1,500 are included in the IAVSEI (International Volcanological Association) catalog and are considered active. Active volcanoes are those that have erupted at least once in the last 10 thousand years. This number almost does not include underwater volcanoes, of which there are much more than land ones. At any given moment, about 20 volcanoes are erupting in different parts of the world, including in Russia: in Kamchatka, 4 volcanoes are currently at the stage of eruption.

Read about the problems of Russian volcanology in the interview with P. Plechov on the Polit.ru website http://polit.ru/science/2010/04/20/plechov_volcan.html

* * *

— Did you hear that Eyjafjallajökull came to life?

“Are you sure it’s not Snaefellsjökull?”

— Of course, Snaefellsjökull is near Stykkishólmur itself, and Eyjafjallajökull is closer to Hvolsvöllur, if you drive along Pjödvegur towards Pikkvabájárklaustur.

- Thank God, otherwise I have relatives in Grundarfjörður!

If you read this dialogue out loud without hesitation, then you are an Icelander. If you don’t believe in the possibility of such a dialogue, look at the map of Iceland.

Discuss in the LJ community trv-science_ru .