Translated material
Special Operation "Governor"
Heads of regions where the interests of federal elites do not overlap have a better chance of political longevity
Two more Russian regions are getting new old governors as leaders this week. Yesterday, deputies of the Lipetsk Regional Council at an extraordinary session reaffirmed the current governor Oleg Korolev as head of the regional administration. And on Thursday, April 29, the legislative assembly of the Penza region at an extraordinary session will consider the issue of extending the term of office of the current head of the region, Vasily Bochkarev. Both governors, Bochkarev and Korolev, have headed the federal subjects entrusted to them since 1998. However, they were reappointed to their posts at the suggestion of President Dmitry Medvedev, who has repeatedly stated that he does not intend to reappoint governors for a fourth term.Let us recall that quite recently significant updates were made among the heads of the regions, and the resignations affected the old Yeltsin guard - in particular, the president replaced the head of the Sverdlovsk region Eduard Rossel and the President of Tatarstan Mintimer Shaimiev. This gave analysts reason to talk about a course to update the governor's corps. However, the examples of the Lipetsk and Penza regions indicate that the update will not affect all subjects of the federation.
Oksana Goncharenko, an expert at the Center for Political Current Affairs, does not believe that it is possible to deduce any patterns that would result in the re-appointment of an old governor or the appointment of a new governor in the region. “In each case, they look at the specific situation that has developed in a particular subject,” the analyst told a Vremya Novostei correspondent. -- The task is, first of all, to ensure social and economic stability and development opportunities. The set of measures in different regions can be very different, so there are no general trends here, and they are unlikely to appear.”
According to Ms. Goncharenko, factors such as “a long stay in power and advanced age” could potentially contribute to a change in the head of the region. “However, there are exceptions if the current head ensures stability and suits the federal center,” the expert clarifies. “That’s what happened in the case of Korolev.” Vasily Bochkarev is also the most influential figure at the regional level, moreover, in the Penza region the interests of the federal elites do not overlap and, accordingly, there was no high competition.”
“The attractiveness of the region for lobbyists is an additional source of increased competition in the fight for the post of governor,” noted Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, in a conversation with a Vremya Novostey correspondent. Nevertheless, the expert denies a direct relationship between the region’s resources and the issue of reappointing the governor: “There is no mood to necessarily leave governors in regions with average attractiveness.” “Of course, competition for weak regions is lower,” agrees Mr. Vinogradov, “but for the federal government it is clear that where there are few resources, there is nothing to plug the holes, so the social situation there is worse.” And this, against the backdrop of the economic crisis, means the threat of increased protest activity, which the center absolutely does not need.
In general, according to Mr. Vinogradov, the issue of changing or re-appointing the governor remains in domestic politics “a special operation that prompts regional elites to fear the unpredictability of the center.” Hence the unexpected decisions, such as the re-appointment of Alexander Mikhailov in the Kursk region and Oleg Bogomolov in the Kurgan region. “These reassignments looked strange, since a replacement there had been brewing for a long time,” admits Mr. Vinogradov. “Perhaps at the time the decision was made, the regions seemed of low priority compared to those that really worried officials.” This version, however, allows us to once again recall the dependence between the resource attractiveness of the territory and the Kremlin’s interest in it.
Meanwhile, in 2010, “special operations” with the appointment of governors will be carried out in a number of regions. In particular, Mikhail Vinogradov predicts “interesting end of terms of office” in Kalmykia, Nizhny Novgorod, Tyumen and Kaliningrad regions, as well as in the Perm Territory.