Two Kyrgyzstan?

According to him, the initiative group plans to apply to this proposal to the Provisional Government of the Republic , so that it is reflected in the new Constitution, the project of which is now being discussed in the Kyrgyz society. The initiative of the separation of five millionth Kyrgyzstan to the north and south of the deputy head of the Provisional Government on constitutional reform Omurbek Tekebaev called a dangerous trend. Nevertheless, speaking of the situation in the country, experts note that the mood of people living in the north and in the south is fundamentally different.

Kyrgyz political scientist Marat Kazakbaev believes that in the northern regions the situation is complicated by the requirements of youth organizations to the temporal government of the country:

-In the north of the country, the situation is very difficult, first of all, because of new youth organizations that require some power. They want their candidate to receive the post of deputy minister, demand participation in the elections, and all this is quite radical.

The actions of the new government are noticeable, first of all, in the north of the country, and I will not say that the whole society supports them. They work in a very difficult atmosphere, there is a certain pressure from the same youth and public organizations formed after April 7th.

In the southern regions of Kyrgyzstan, where there are a lot of supporters of the overthrown President of Bakiev, their claims to the Provisional Government. The director of the Osh resource center of the media , Maksuda Itieva, says that the region is actively discussing the project of a new constitution and personnel appointments :

- Now the activities of the Provisional Government are actively monitored, at least from civil society. On the ground there is a discussion of the draft Constitution, and groups of people are preparing their recommendations on this issue. In addition, the conversation is about the creation of an independent expert commission, which could develop an alternative constitution.

Today it became known that the current Kyrgyz authorities do not exclude the possibility of returning to the country of Askar Akayev, who served as president to Kurmanbek Bakiev. However, Akayev is recommended to return after parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan.

Political scientist Marat Kazakbaev believes that the return for Akayev is unsafe:

- My personal opinion, and many share it that Askaru Akayev is better not to return for the purpose of his personal safety. There is no question of engaging in politics - he talked about it himself. He just wanted to return to his homeland, which, I repeat, could pose a threat to his life.

Akayev’s return was prepared long until April 7, according to the director of the Osh resource center of the media , Maksuda ITIEVA . In her opinion, popular unrest was provoked by the team of the first president of Kyrgyzstan:

-I am still inclined to think that the Akayevsky team was preparing for the excess, because it is clear that the representatives of the Provisional Government themselves were not ready for such a turn of events. They did not have a prepared draft constitution, not at least seven people whom they could appoint governors without hesitation. It so happened that they had to come and start to immediately do something that they were not ready for. Therefore, I think that Akayev’s return was planned long until April 7th.

Marat Kazakbaev believes that the adoption of the new constitution of Kyrgyzstan proposed by the Provisional Government will not make the country to the Parliamentary Republic. The formulations embedded in him, in his opinion, are blurred. The basic law of Kyrgyzstan should be finalized by the Constitutional meeting by May 19.

The events taking place in Kyrgyzstan after April 7 are also given their assessment in Russia. "During the recent events in Kyrgyzstan, Russia was first on the side of democracy," the Memorial’s human rights center believes. Despite the fact that the situation in the republic remains largely unstable, Russian human rights activists positively evaluate the efforts of the Provisional Government.

A year ago, the head of the Central Asian Program of the Human Rights Program "Memorial" Vitaly Ponomarev regime Kurmanbek Bakiev was declared "Persona Non Grata" for the preparation of a report on religious conflicts in Kyrgyzstan. Today, the atmosphere in the country reminds him of the years of perestroika in the USSR. “The same mixture of anxiety and hope,” says Vitaly Ponomarev:

- The first two days, especially in Bishkek, I had the feeling that I was in a completely different country. It seems to be the same people, the same architecture, but something is completely different. By the way, I did not have such a feeling in 2005, when a change of power occurred. I would have said very conditionally that it was some completely strange mixture of 1917 with perestroika 1988-1989, of course, adjusted for the specifics of the situation and for some Asian things. After all these events, problems were identified, contradictions intensified, but hope appeared, probably for the first time in the years - society woke up.

The human rights activist believes that the Russian authorities made the right choice during the April events, supporting democratic processes in Kyrgyzstan. However, the story with the detention in Moscow and the expulsion of the ex-head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, Moldomos Kvartiev, raises many questions and is very reminiscent of the sensational deportations from Russia of Uzbek dissidents, Vitaly Ponomarev admits:

- As I understand it, there was no request to Russia about its official issuance. Therefore, the question of expulsion is not to the Kyrgyz authorities, but, above all, to Russian. Of course, the desire to cooperate with the new government is understandable, but the legal grounds about the expulsion from Russia seem very unclear. And now the Memorial human rights center intends to send a request to the Russian authorities in order to clarify the legal basis of these actions.

Are the new Kyrgyz authorities ready to comply with human rights? To approve democratic values in Kyrgyzstan, the joint efforts of the authorities and the public are necessary, the head of the Central Asian program of the Memorial Center Vitaly Ponomarev:

- I think that both the draft of the new Constitution and all the subsequent actions taken by the Provisional Government are a clear signal of readiness to observe human rights. Another question is that, of course, one should not rely only on the goodwill of the government. In the case of any problems, it is the active position of the local civil society that will create certain guarantees. The same applies to international organizations. Of course, all this does not give one hundred percent guarantees, but these mechanisms should be used to solve problems related to human rights.

Meanwhile, the acting Minister of Finance of Kyrgyzstan Temir Sariev, referring to the foreign business community, said that "all conditions will be created for entrepreneurs and investors to improve the business environment."

About how I will unfold events in Kyrgyzstan - read in a commentary to the Radio Observer Liberty Vadim Dubnov. He, in particular, predicts:

- You can laugh at Kurmanbek Bakiev as much as you like, with sparkling unpretentiousness combined the Russian bonus for the expulsion of the American military base with American contributions for that the bases remain. The new Kyrgyz government, perhaps, will fulfill this trick more elegantly, but she still does not have any others, which, it seems, Moscow has reconciled, saving Bishkek from the need to get confused in temptations.

• 

  Vitaly Kamyshev

  Radio Office of Radio Liberty. Cooperates with the radio station since 1997. He worked in the journal The New Times, the newspaper Arguments and Facts, was a regular author of the newspaper Russian Thought (Paris) in 1995-2000. Kamyshevv@rferl.org
• 

  Elena Polyakovskaya

  Polyakovskayae@rferl.org