Let there be sunshine again

A new foreign policy program for Russia is ready. Its essence is the establishment of partnerships with the Western world

The recent turning point in relations with Poland began almost by accident. Yury Ushakov, deputy head of the government apparatus, who oversees foreign policy at the White House, received a rather emotional telegram from the Russian embassy in Warsaw. It said that due to the fact that Poland is trying to block any cooperation with Russia, all relations between Moscow and the European Union are in jeopardy - and all because the Katyn issue has not been resolved. Having settled the old problem with Warsaw, a breakthrough in relations with the EU could be achieved, the authors of the telegram assured. The Foreign Ministry was categorically against any concessions on Katyn, but Ushakov showed the telegram to Prime Minister Putin.

Just at that time, the general director of Norilsk Nickel, Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, interceded for the Poles before Putin. He has Polish roots, and representatives of Polish business have contacted him more than once asking for help. The issue was resolved - Putin ordered the Foreign Ministry to turn around 180 degrees. After that, mourning events were organized near Smolensk, where Lech Kaczynski tragically died and the Russian-Polish enmity ended.

But Poland and the conflict with it is only a small piece in the "New Picture of the World" mosaic that is now being put together in the Kremlin. And the warming on the American front, the unexpected results of Medvedev's visit to Norway and his desire to find new points of dialogue with the West, which is seen, for example, in his last interview with the Izvestia newspaper in connection with Victory Day, these are not accidental episodes.

Newsweek has at its disposal a draft written by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the so-called "Program for the effective use on a systematic basis of foreign policy factors for the long-term development of the Russian Federation." Medvedev has already approved it in advance. In fact, we are talking about a new foreign policy doctrine.

The meaning of the document is that Russia intends, not in words, but in deeds, to pursue a foreign policy in which there will be no friends and enemies, but only interests. The country's economy must be modernized, and foreign policy must also work towards solving this problem. A high-ranking source in the Foreign Ministry, who participated in the drafting of the document, confirms that the Cold War has been replaced by "detente" again.

FOR ADMINISTRATIVE USE

It's time for Russia to "stop puffing out its cheeks," Medvedev said last November in a message to the Federal Assembly. And he gave the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government a task - to develop a list of criteria for the effectiveness of foreign policy. That is, to determine what tasks need to be solved so that Russia's foreign policy can be recognized as successful.

In addition, the president demanded to prepare a program for the effective use of foreign policy factors for long-term development. For several months, the foreign policy planning department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs worked on both documents and presented them to the president in February.

After a big meeting in the Kremlin, Medvedev approved them and sent them to the government - now, according to Newsweek, the documents are being approved by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. They are not public, but for official use, and are not like the previous programs, which, according to a senior diplomat, were written in the Security Council. Instead of traditional vague formulations, they clearly spell out what and where Russia should do in foreign policy, and most importantly, why.

For example, the document provides for the economic conquest of the Baltic countries: "Taking into account the decline in their investment attractiveness for the EU countries and the serious reduction in the cost of national assets," it is proposed to "work out the issue of acquiring real sector enterprises in the region." In Central Asia, according to the document, Russian companies should buy up enterprises of the former Soviet military-industrial complex, in the Middle East they should build railways, popularize GLONASS, and in Angola, Senegal, Nigeria and South Africa they should develop nuclear energy. It is planned to create a free trade zone between the countries of the Customs Union and Syria.

But even Russia's traditionally friendly relations with rogue states should now be filled with economic meaning. As the economic isolation of Syria, Iran, Cuba, Uzbekistan, as well as Armenia and Serbia, the authors of the program believe, should introduce preferential conditions for Russian companies.

WANTED PARTNERS

The preface to the program was written by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He starts in the usual spirit - he blames the "Western-centric system of global governance under the dominance of the United States" for the world economic crisis and states with satisfaction that "the material basis of the West's dominance in world politics, economics and finance has shaken." But then he comes to fairly fresh conclusions. Moreover, "strengthening interdependence relations with the leading world powers on the basis of the interpenetration of economies and cultures" is in the interests of Russia. And to the fact that the European Union and especially the United States are the most desirable partners.

The head of the Foreign Ministry does not hide his concern for the fate of Barack Obama, whom Moscow considers the best partner and accuses "the US military, intelligence and foreign policy establishment" of trying to "return to the confrontational policy of the previous administration." And at the same time he calls for "building an effective model of mutually beneficial, equal cooperation with Washington."

A Foreign Ministry official says that over the past month, the tone of dialogue between Moscow and Washington has completely changed. During the latest Russian-American talks, US representatives never mentioned Georgia, and what's more, they nodded submissively when the Russians said that the 2008 war was provoked by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, without promptly rebuking Mikheil Saakashvili.

Washington has almost guaranteed that Congress will soon repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment. As a symbol, this is important, the Russian diplomat emphasizes. Last week it was officially announced that Obama was inviting Medvedev to Washington for a return visit in June of this year. If the meeting goes well, the Foreign Ministry official believes, Russia may even join the WTO by the end of the year.

END OF AN EPOCH

The main reason for the unexpected turn in Russian foreign policy, primarily in relation to the West, is the lack of money needed to modernize the economy, transport infrastructure and introduce innovations. The triumphant optimism of Russian leaders in the era of record high oil prices is a thing of the past. In the post-crisis world, Russia is forced to look for friends and make useful economic ties.

For several years, Russia provided a powerful influx of Western capital in a simple and convenient way. Exported resources grew in price, and with it the capitalization of Russian companies, which opened up wide access to cheap money, which, through Western banks, at a small percentage, fell into the super-profitable markets of developing countries. Raw material rent was used for ambitious social programs, and business developed thanks to cheap loans. In the fall of 2008, this scheme collapsed: not only did oil prices collapse, but money also rose sharply in value. The business, which had previously lived with the certainty that one unpaid loan could always be used for another, was left without the usual injections, but with huge debts.

So there is no money for a technological and modernization breakthrough in Russia. At the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Economic Development estimated that Russia would need about $1 trillion to implement the planned infrastructure and social programs until 2013 alone. Nearly two-thirds of this amount should come from extrabudgetary sources. There are also arms programs that have been spending at least $30 billion a year in recent years.

The budget and reserves of the Central Bank, which have become, in fact, the only source of liquidity and financial resources in the country, will not withstand such a load. And the policy adopted by the government of a steady and sharp reduction in the budget deficit (from 6 to 0% in five years) puts an end to the idea of ​​using the state as the main investment banker. In the world, too, not everything is in order: Greece has already entered a pre-default state, experts believe that Spain and Portugal are next in line. Western banks are afraid of any sudden movements and reduce the limits on lending to Russian projects.

"The crisis has shown that Russia will not be able to develop on its own - it is necessary to lean against someone," - says the source in the Foreign Ministry. It clearly follows from the program: it is necessary to lean against the European Union. A senior European diplomat confirms that in recent months, in all the most important negotiations, Russian representatives have been talking only about how Europe can invest in Russian modernization.

There is nowhere to go: all hope is on foreign investors who are ready to invest in Russia and develop joint projects around the world together with Russian business. Then Russia will also be able to count on familiarization with modern technologies.

FOR EACH PROGRAM

So both the program and the brand-new criteria for the effectiveness of foreign policy activities are very out of place. But there are still problems with coordinating the efforts of business, the government and the Foreign Ministry. “The system is not designed to support foreign economic interests,” says a senior official of the government apparatus, “and it will not be possible to establish this process quickly.” Today, there is confusion in the government in this area. Formally, all foreign policy is in the hands of the President and the Foreign Ministry. But the White House has its own small Foreign Ministry, a group of Prime Minister Putin's aides led by Yuri Ushakov, working almost autonomously.

In addition, back in 2008 the government approved the main directions of foreign economic policy. And in accordance with them, the Ministry of Economy has already written several dozen so-called country plans - detailed documents describing the timing of the implementation of joint projects with major foreign economic partners. The Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Industry and Trade have their own sectoral, but rather large-scale programs of international cooperation.

On March 17 of this year, the government generally approved these country plans and instructed the vice-premiers and relevant ministers to monitor their implementation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which formally has nothing to do with it, was asked to help the government as much as possible. "It sometimes becomes very difficult to understand who is responsible for what," said an employee of the vice-premier's secretariat, who heads one of the bilateral foreign economic commissions.

According to Newsweek, at a meeting with President Medvedev in late February, the issue of coordinating the efforts of the government, the Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin in this direction was also discussed. The President instructed to think about whether to add powers to the Foreign Ministry. A senior Newsweek source in the government claims that no final decisions on who will be the coordinator of the new doctrine have yet been made, but this may happen before the end of May - and the Foreign Ministry will still receive new powers, and the government will streamline the work of ministries to implement country plans by special order.

NEW DEAL

Although the system of work of officials has not yet been debugged, the program written in February is already working. For example, one of the points in it is the early signing of the START treaty. It was signed in early April. A source in the Russian Foreign Ministry says that many diplomats are still surprised - just a couple of months ago, almost no one believed that the treaty would be signed.

This year, the Ministry of Economic Development has developed a draft partnership agreement with the European Union. It was planned that Dmitry Medvedev and EU President Herman van Rompuy would sign it at the next Russia-EU summit in Rostov-on-Don. However, diplomats say, the Europeans are unlikely to have time to study and approve the document before May 31 - the European foreign policy department has not been fully formed, and all forces are now being spent on resolving problems in Greece.

However, one of the diplomats foresees that in May the start of negotiations on a visa-free regime between Russia and the EU will be announced. In addition, the parties are close to signing a framework agreement on partnership and cooperation. It will be called the "New Basic Agreement" and can be signed immediately after Russia completes negotiations on WTO accession.

Back in February, the authors of the program advised to increase cooperation with the countries of Northern Europe - they have advanced developments in energy efficiency and energy conservation, nanotechnology, communications, Arctic shipbuilding, and so on. Dmitry Medvedev began to move in this direction as well. He just went to Denmark and Norway. In Copenhagen, he invited Danish businessmen to participate in the Skolkovo project, and in Oslo he made unprecedented concessions - he signed an agreement on the division of the Barents Sea with Norway.

The Foreign Ministry says that although the new program is already really operating, most diplomats simply did not see it. The first persons are implementing the new course, and the diplomats, as before, only guess their will. At the same time, in recent years, the Foreign Ministry has been moving in the opposite direction. “Many diplomats in our country believe that we should take a demanding position,” says a senior Foreign Ministry official, “that is, put forward radical demands and not change them for years.” It won't be easy for them to adjust. And if something serious happens, like the Georgian war in 2008, they will gladly turn back.

WHERE IN Rus' TO BE FRIENDS WELL

The new Russian foreign policy doctrine outlines a plan for the development of relations with 61 states. Newsweek selected the most important and interesting areas

ABKHAZIA (Badge: Science/Technology)

● Facilitate the work of an enterprise established by Rosatom and Sukhumi Institute of Physics and Technology for the high-tech production of multisilicon wafers for green energy.

AUSTRALIA (Badge: Capital)

● Attract Australian capital to priority Russian projects (APEC 2012, Sochi 2014).

AZERBAIJAN (Badge: Capital, Science/Technology)

● Conclude a bilateral agreement on the protection of capital investments.

● Promote Russian banking structures.

● Consider supporting Azerbaijan's satellite program.

ARMENIA (Badge: Science/Technology)

● Use Armenia's experience gained in projects with NATO and the EU.

● Use the potential of Armenia to obtain technological information from Western partners.

AFRICAN CONTINENT (Badge: Energy, Science/Technology)

● Develop nuclear energy together with Angola, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa.

● Use Russian space technologies for economic and defense purposes together with Angola, Nigeria and South Africa.

BELARUS (Badge: Capital, Energy)

● Seek Belarus' consent to the acquisition of controlling stakes in its oil refineries by Russian companies.

BRAZIL (Icon: Capital, Energy, Science/Technology, Weapons)

● Form a technology alliance. To develop cooperation in military-technical cooperation, space, energy, education, science, and innovation.

● Expand the range of non-resource-based Russian exports. Promote Russian software.

● Form a working group to develop calculations in national currencies.

VENEZUELA (Badge: Energy)

● Secure political agreements with the help of international legal instruments.

● Promote Russia's consolidation in the Venezuelan fuel and energy complex.

GERMANY: (Badge: Energy, Science/Technology, Transport, Industry)

● Continue political support for the Nord Stream project.

● Expand nuclear cooperation.

● Participate in the X-ray free electron laser project (Hamburg).

Participate in the conversion of the Airbus-320 into a freighter, as well as the design and production of the Airbus-350.

● Localize the production of VW, Daimler, BMW in Russia.

● Expand cooperation between Russian Railways and Deutsche Bahn and Siemens to launch high-speed trains.

ISRAEL (Badge: Energy, Science/Technology)

● Work out the issue of using the innovative potential of the Israeli economy for Russian needs

● Conclude agreements on investment protection and industrial R&D.

● Continue working on the issue of Russian gas supplies to Israel.

INDIA (Badge: Arms, Energy, Science/Technology, Industry)

● Strengthen positions in the Indian arms market.

● Increase the share of science-intensive and technological products in Russian exports.

● Develop joint projects in the energy sector (construction of hydropower plants, nuclear power plants) and the oil and gas sector.

● Implement a joint venture for the production of titanium dioxide.

● Develop and start production of a multi-purpose transport aircraft.

● Establish joint scientific and technical centers.

● Cooperate in the field of telecommunications, space exploration, and the joint development of GLONASS.

IRAQ (Icon: Energy, Capital)

● Support the interests of Russian fuel and energy companies.

● Update the contractual base in the field of transport, trade, investment, taxation, etc.

IRAN (Icon: Security, Capital, Energy, Science/Technology)

● Cooperate in the fight against international terrorism and drug trafficking.

● Increase the volume of bilateral trade.

● Roadmap for development in the fuel and energy sector.

● Continue cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear energy in conjunction with the political and diplomatic settlement.

● Sign an agreement on mutual protection of investments.

ITALY: (Badge: Industry, Energy, Science/Technology)

● Support joint projects in the aircraft industry (Superjet-100), automotive industry (Sollers and Fiat), mechanical engineering (KAMAZ and Case New Holland), communications, and space.

● Conclude an agreement in the field of labor migration.

● Implement agreements in the energy sector.

● Engage Italian companies in the modernization of railways, ports and airports.

● Use the Italian experience in the preparation of Sochi-2014.

CHINA (Icon: Capital, Energy, Industry, Science/Technology)

● Increase the share of science-intensive and engineering products in Russian exports.

● Attract funds from Chinese banks to bilateral projects, increase the role of national currencies in trade.

● Maintain Russian dominance in China's nuclear power industry.

● Prepare major projects for the development of aircraft.

● Develop communication and information partnerships, including access for Russian companies to the Chinese market.

● Cooperate in the field of protection of intellectual property rights.

North Korea (Badge: Security)

● Monitor the situation in the DPRK. Develop a plan in case of exacerbation of the socio-political situation in the country.

REPUBLIC OF KOREA (Icon: Capital, Industry, Weapons, Science/Technology, Agriculture, Transportation)

● Link Korean investment projects for the development of natural resources in Siberia and the Far East with Russian targeted programs.

● Given Korea's interest in long-term land leases in the Russian Far East, attract Korean investment and know-how to Russian agriculture.

● Carry out military-technical cooperation.

● Connect the Trans-Korean Railway with the Trans-Siberian.

● Explore the prospects for a free trade agreement.

● Cooperate in the field of nuclear energy.

● Implement joint space projects, including the establishment of the Korean National Launch System.

● Cooperate in the field of nanotechnology.

CUBA (Icon: Capital, Science/Technology, Energy)

● Build up economic positions.

● Sign the Intergovernmental Agreement on Outer Space.

● Ratify the double taxation agreement.

● Expand the participation of Russian companies in the modernization of Cuba's energy sector and in oil and gas production projects.

NETHERLANDS (Badge: Energy, Capital, Science/Tech, Transport)

● Continue implementation of key projects (development of Sakhalin, Nord Stream, development of Yamal-Kara Sea resources).

● Deal with the crisis with a focus on cooperation in banking and finance.

● Support Philips, which supplies advanced medical equipment, with the prospect of a JV in Russia.

● To study the Dutch experience in the development of hub airports in relation to Pulkovo.

UAE (Badge: Industry, Capital, Energy, Science/Technology, Armaments)

● Implement agreements on projects in industry, shipbuilding, pharmacology, communications, transport, science and education.

● Attract Emirati investment.

● Develop deposits, build pipelines.

● Cooperate in the field of space.

● Expand the range of Russian arms exports.

BALTICS (Icon: Transport, Capital, Energy)

● Pursue the use of territory and transport infrastructure for the transit of goods to the EU.

● Expand Russia's economic presence, taking into account the sharp drop in investment attractiveness for the EU countries and the cheapening of national assets.

● Consider acquiring real sector enterprises in energy, information technology, logistics and transport.

SAUDI ARABIA (Icon: Capital, Energy, Science/Technology, Weapons)

● Attract Saudi investment, primarily in the agro-industrial complex and real estate.

● Cooperate in the fuel and energy sector (development of gas fields by LUKOIL), construction of oil and gas infrastructure.

● Cooperate in the field of peaceful atom. Joint scientific projects.

● Partnership of research centers, primarily in nanotechnology.

● Seek to sign contracts for military-technical cooperation.

SYRIA (Transport, Capital)

● Promote Russian civil aircraft.

● With the participation of members of the Customs Union, work out the issue of creating a free trade zone.

USA (Capital, Energy)

● Attract investment, increase the volume and improve the structure of trade.

● Seek ratification of the Peaceful Atom Agreement, which will provide access to US nuclear technology.

● Achieve the lifting of sanctions against Russian enterprises for legal cooperation with Iran, Syria and a number of other countries.

● Activate trade and investment ties by removing the artificial barriers maintained by the US.

Türkiye (Energy, Capital)

● Build the country's first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu.

● Negotiate a shift in bilateral trade to the ruble and Turkish lira.

UKRAINE (Capital, Industry, Science/Technology, Energy, Transport)

● Actively involve Ukraine in economic cooperation, ensuring that Russian enterprises in strategic industries do not become dependent on Ukrainian counterparties.

● Integrate the United Aircraft Corporation with Ukrainian aircraft manufacturing companies.

● Create a common navigation space with Ukraine based on GLONASS.

● Consider Russia's participation in the operation of Ukraine's gas transmission system and the creation of an international consortium as a strategic task.

● Pursue the use of the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline in the reverse direction, which will limit Ukraine's access to Caspian oil.

● Seek a long-term contract for the supply of Russian nuclear fuel to Ukrainian NPPs.

FRANCE (Transport, Capital, Science/Technology, Energy, Industry)

● Support investment projects - Peugeot-Citroen in Kaluga and Renault in Moscow.

● Promote the idea of ​​cross-capitalization of Russian and French companies.

● Support the Soyuz space project in Guinea and the Ural project to develop launch vehicles.

● Develop cooperation in the aircraft industry.

● Support Thomson's participation in Russia's program to transition to digital television by 2015.

● Ensure cooperation between Gazprom and Electricite de France.

● Jointly modernize the nuclear power plant in Belen in Bulgaria, build new nuclear power plants in third countries.

JAPAN (Capital, Science/Technology, Transport, Agriculture, Energy)

● Expand investment cooperation in high-tech areas: mechanical engineering, telecommunications, oil and gas chemistry.

● Attract technology and investment to modernize the Trans-Siberian and other lines of communication.

● Spread Japanese agricultural innovations in Russia. To increase the export of Russian agricultural products.

● Cooperate in the field of energy saving, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment manufacturing.

SOURCE: Draft program for the effective use on a systematic basis of foreign policy factors for the long-term development of the Russian Federation as of February 10, 2010 (Russian Foreign Ministry).