Translated material
Preventing Armageddon
Russia will develop a device for reconnaissance of a potentially dangerous asteroid
Russian scientists promise to develop a spacecraft to study a celestial body that, according to some astronomers, poses a potential threat to life on Earth. On Tuesday, the director of the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Lev Zeleny, told reporters that the leading enterprise of the domestic rocket and space industry is the NPO named after. S.A. Lavochkina creates a device for studying the asteroid Apophis. “In 2029, the trajectory of Apophis will pass quite close to the Earth, and in the next cycle of movement, in 2036, there is a non-zero probability of its collision with our planet,” warned Academician Zeleny. According to him, the damage that could be caused as a result of such an impact will be several times greater than the destruction that was caused by the fall of the Tunguska meteorite. Scientists suggest that the space object that caused the explosion in the area of the Podkamennaya Tunguska River on June 30, 1908, was about 50 m in diameter and could weigh 1-2 million tons. For comparison: the size of Apophis discovered in 2004 is 270 by 60 m, and the mass of the asteroid is, according to various sources, from 26 to 45 tons.The likelihood that a giant cosmic “boulder” will fall to Earth in 2029 is negligible: according to official estimates released by NASA, the probability of a collision is 1 in 250 thousand. However, Apophis will still “come close” to our planet - according to the latest calculations, in 2029 the asteroid will fly at a distance of 28.9 thousand km from the earth’s surface (plus or minus 200-300 km). This approach may affect the orbit of a small celestial body. A deviation from the previous route could lead to the fact that in 7 years, in 2036, Apophis will again pass at a dangerously close distance from the Earth.
According to NASA estimates, in the event of a collision of a celestial guest with the Earth, an explosion with a power of more than 500 megatons can occur (for comparison: the effect of the “landing” of the Tunguska meteorite is estimated at approximately 10 megatons, which is equivalent to the explosion of a hydrogen bomb). Scientists, based on the maximum possible hypothetical size of an asteroid - 390 m, calculated: if such a celestial body enters the earth's atmosphere at a speed of 12.6 km/s, then after the asteroid hits the surface of the planet, a crater with a diameter of almost 6 km will form, within a radius of 10 km there will be an earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale. An asteroid falling into the ocean will lead to the formation of a giant tsunami, and if the impact falls on a densely populated area, the destruction will affect several hundred kilometers. However, scientists note, even such a pessimistic scenario does not assume that a planetary catastrophe will occur, similar to the one that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs - Apophis is too small for this. According to the hypothesis of Nobel laureate Luis Alvarez, the “rock” that caused nuclear winter 65 million years ago was about 10 km in diameter.
“People's lives are at risk. We would rather spend several hundred million dollars and create a system that will allow us to avoid a collision than sit and wait for this to happen and thousands of people to die,” the head of Roscosmos, Anatoly Perminov, warned the public in January of this year. However, astronomers believe that one should not expect the end of the world in 2036 - the probability of meeting with Apophis is extremely low, although, as academician Lev Zeleny noted, “it is non-zero.”
In order to obtain more accurate data on the behavior of the asteroid, it is planned to deliver a special beacon to Apophis. This, according to Mr. Zeleny, is planned to be carried out in 2029 at the time of the passage of the asteroid near the Earth. “The lighthouse will make it possible to carry out trajectory measurements of the asteroid with high accuracy, which will make it possible to more accurately predict whether it will collide with the Earth 7 years later, and, if necessary, take measures to deviate it from a dangerous course,” explained the director of the Institute of Space Research RAS.
The topic of protecting the Earth from the asteroid threat has not only been discussed in scientific circles for a long time, but has also become the property of mass culture - take, for example, the Hollywood blockbuster "Armageddon", filmed 6 years before the discovery of Apophis, in 1998. Let us recall that according to the plot of the film, an American expedition lands on an asteroid approaching the Earth and destroys it with a nuclear explosion. Scientists offer no less effective and, at first glance, equally fantastic ways to get rid of an uninvited heavenly guest. For example, a spacecraft can deploy a “solar sail”—an ultra-thin reflective film—on an asteroid. It is believed that the pressure of electromagnetic radiation can change the speed of the asteroid and the direction of its movement. European Space Agency specialists came up with a proposal to correct the course of Apophis using a kind of “orbital tow truck.” A spacecraft must fly up to the asteroid and hover above it at a minimum altitude due to the operation of solar-powered engines. The “space tractor” will attract the asteroid to itself, giving it a slight acceleration, and will gradually bring the celestial body into a safer orbit. The British corporation EADS Atrium promises to develop such a “tractor ship” or “space tractor”.
In turn, the domestic NPO named after. Lavochkin, which produced not only artificial Earth satellites, Lunokhod-1 and devices for exploring Mars and Venus, but also intercontinental cruise missiles, could use its achievements. However, as the head of Roscosmos Anatoly Perminov assured last December, there are no plans to destroy the asteroid. “No nuclear explosions, everything is due to the laws of physics,” emphasized the head of the space agency.