Translated material
Good tradition
Gazprom and Beltransgaz have three hours to prevent a gas war
Today at ten o'clock in the morning another show is planned at Gazprom to stop gas supplies for debts. The head of the concern, Alexey Miller, is determined to carry out the instructions of President Dmitry Medvedev and apply the most stringent measures to Belarus, which owes $192 million for gas. On Saturday evening, Mr. Miller said that the next round of negotiations had ended in nothing. The show may not take place if the Belarusian government delegation that arrived in Moscow last night manages to do in three hours what it failed to do in the five days allotted by Dmitry Medvedev to pay off the debt. As First Deputy Minister of Energy of Belarus Eduard Tovpenets said yesterday, the meeting is scheduled for 7.00, which leaves a chance for a settlement.However, that's where the good news ends. The composition of the Belarusian delegation does not inspire optimism in terms of its decision-making powers. According to Mr. Tovpenets, it will be headed by Deputy Minister of Economy Anatoly Filonov, and someone from the management of Beltransgaz will help him. They will discuss the introduction of a surcharge for gas transit and the resulting debt of Gazprom, although the transportation agreement signed between the companies does not provide for a unilateral revision of the tariff.
In addition, an anonymous source in the government of Belarus again threatened Russia with problems with gas transit to Europe and the Kaliningrad region. A reduction in supplies by 85%, which is exactly how much Gazprom promises to tighten the valve, according to the official, will lead to the fact that Beltransgaz will not have the technical ability to carry out transit.
Alexey Miller responded to these statements in advance. “We must look at this issue calmly, there are technical possibilities (for pumping gas bypassing Belarus. - Ed. ),” said the head of Gazprom, noting in this regard the possibility of additional supplies to Europe through the Ukrainian system, and to Kaliningrad - through the Baltic states.
Let us recall that the debt of Beltransgaz (from this year 50% owned by Gazprom) to the Russian concern arose due to the fact that the company has not fully paid for the gas supplied since the beginning of the year. According to the contract, in the first quarter the price of 1 thousand cubic meters of gas was $168, and in the second it increased to $185. Minsk asked Moscow to provide an additional discount and, although it did not meet with understanding, it pays for gas according to its own understanding - at $150 . per thousand cubic meters.
Gazprom has long threatened its partners with sanctions, but issued a five-day ultimatum last week. After the visit of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to Moscow, it became clear that negotiations on the Customs Union a few days before the planned start (from July 1) remain at a dead end. Minsk did not react for several days, and then the Belarusian leader said that there was no debt for gas, but there was an unacceptable attitude of the Russian leadership towards the fraternal people.
According to Vremya Novostey, those around Mr. Lukashenko were counting on a slight limitation of supplies (about 15-20%), which, given the conditions of the summer and the ongoing crisis, would not have affected the country’s gas supply in any way. However, last Thursday Alexey Miller said that the valve would be screwed in 85%. Gazprom calculated that the amount of Belarusian debt approximately corresponds to the cost of monthly supplies of Russian gas. The concern will not completely stop supplies in order to deprive Minsk of the opportunity to refer to the lack of fuel gas to ensure transit.
If three morning hours are not enough to discharge, then after the introduction of restrictions the situation may get out of control. Minsk may begin unauthorized withdrawal, and Moscow may completely stop gas supplies to the system of this country. In this case, German consumers may feel some discomfort associated with changing gas supply points. But Poland may suffer more significantly - thanks to the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, the Poles satisfy about half of their own gas needs (it is technically impossible to completely compensate for their loss through supplies through Ukraine). Complicating relations with Warsaw is clearly not part of Russia’s plans. Therefore, a softer scenario cannot be ruled out - for example, the start of international legal proceedings. Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin spoke about the possibility of filing a claim in arbitration over the weekend.