Ambitious generation

RusHydro will increase installed capacity by 1.6 times

During yesterday's meeting with analysts, RusHydro management spoke about the company's expansion plans. Over the next five years, as one of the meeting participants told Vremya Novostei, the hydro generator expects to increase its installed capacity by 10 GW, and by 2030 this figure should reach 40 GW (from the current 25 GW). Experts, however, believe that these plans may be hampered by problems with payback and a lack of real demand.

The hydrogenerator will not build all the planned capacities on its own. According to the company's previously approved strategy, of the 40 GW that the company plans to control by 2030, it expects to receive approximately 1 GW in the markets of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America. Control over assets in the field of hydroelectric generation that are not yet part of the group would be a significant help on the way to achieving the set goals. Among other things, by 2015, projects in the field of alternative energy will add an additional 140 MW to the corporation's total capacity. We are talking about renewable energy sources and the construction of small hydroelectric power plants.

According to Alexey Serov, senior energy analyst at KIT Finance, such ambitious plans for the hydroelectric generator do not coincide with the priorities outlined in the recently adopted master plan for the development of the domestic electric power industry until 2030. “In the general scheme, the choice was made in favor of thermal generation. As for hydropower, a significant increase in capacity is not envisaged,” the expert noted. Indeed, according to the plan, the installed capacity of all Russian hydroelectric power generation should increase over the next five years by only 5.5 GW (to 51.4 GW), and the capacity of coal and gas stations should increase from the current 145 to 169 GW. In addition, as Mr. Serov recalled, the construction of a hydroelectric power station is extremely expensive both in time and in terms of financial investments. “To understand that it is difficult to commission 15 GW of new capacity on schedule, just look at the history of the construction of the Boguchanskaya HPP. The question of the payback of projects also remains open, since it is unclear whether there is a shortage of capacity in the expansion regions, whether there is demand and whether the facility will be profitable, taking into account the lowering effect that hydroelectric power plants have on prices,” says Mr. Serov. He, however, believes that RusHydro should have no problems raising capital; the company is even ready to find a strategic investor, giving him a 15% share in the authorized capital. In addition, the hydro generator is negotiating with a number of banks about loans and does not exclude the possibility of issuing bonds for approximately 20 billion rubles. already this year. However, according to the expert, RusHydro will have to bring its aggressive development policy into line with a rather conservative program, in particular, of network companies, without whose infrastructure hydro generator projects do not make sense. According to the analyst, it would be possible to partially achieve the planned indicators if RusHydro accumulated all domestic hydro generation. “Having received all the hydro assets in the country, the new management of the company, of course, would put its ambitious plans into practice. But the owners of TGK-1 and Irkutskenergo are also interested in these assets,” the expert concluded.

Petr GELTISHCHEV