Kyrgyzstan yesterday chose the present. The constitutional referendum should not only answer the question of the transition to a parliamentary republic. It should urgently legitimize the interim government. Now the issue is not so much about the political structure of Kyrgyzstan, but about whether the country will be able to solve its own problems itself or whether a new outbreak of interethnic and inter-clan contradictions will require external intervention. If the interim government manages to calm passions in the south of the country and does not allow outbreaks of violence in the north, it will retain the reins of power. The results of the plebiscite (for more details on the voting process, see the article on page 02) and the population's reaction to them are not the only signal that will assess the viability of the current government and show possible scenarios for the further development of events.

The referendum is, in essence, a nationwide poll on confidence in the current authorities of Kyrgyzstan. Roza Otunbayeva and her associates, who did not want to postpone the vote after the recent massacre in the south of the country, are taking a big risk. In a post-stress situation, people could vote with their feet or (it is not known what is worse) give in to overwhelming emotions and deprive the interim government of the last vestiges of legitimacy. However, much depends on the “interims” themselves, who need to demonstrate their competence in restoring order. On Saturday, as reported by the Kyrgyz special services, Sanjar, the nephew of the ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, confirmed his participation in organizing the riots. It is important not to limit themselves to settling scores with the clan of the former head of state. If the new authorities find, prove their guilt and punish the real instigators of the massacre, they will be able to regain some of the lost trust at home and abroad. Then Otunbayeva and her comrades will get a respite until the elections (unless, of course, they move on to a new round of clarification of relations), a chance to gain a foothold in Bishkek and confirm their ability to govern the country.

If the referendum and efforts to stabilize the situation in the south fail, old inter-clan and inter-ethnic conflicts will flare up again. New ones may also emerge – with Russians, Kazakhs, Uighurs and Dungans. The country risks turning into an uncontrollable confederation of clan leaders, experts believe. However, a new round of violence is unlikely to occur without outside intervention.

Mass unrest in Kyrgyzstan is not only disadvantageous to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia as the guarantor of security in the post-Soviet space. However, during the peak of the ethnic carnage in mid-June, neither Russia nor the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) were able or willing to organize and send peacekeeping forces to the republic. The legal and political ambiguities of such a step were used in this case as a reason not to take it. During a visit to the United States, Dmitry Medvedev discussed the problem of Kyrgyzstan with Barack Obama, and, judging by the leaders' press conference, they agreed on the need to provide humanitarian aid to the distressed country. And if it is necessary to protect the population, then "under the auspices of the international community, and not any individual country," Obama said.

The UN, the US and NATO have so far only expressed concern about Kyrgyzstan. According to the idea of a “reset” in relations between Russia and the US, the situation in the post-Soviet region has been tacitly placed under Russian control. It is clear that if the armed conflict in Kyrgyzstan escalates, it will complicate the operations of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan and increase the need for a peacekeeping operation. Experts believe that a calming down of events is more likely: a new round of chaos is not beneficial to anyone except the Bakiyev clan (which can use it for further trade with Bishkek), as well as local criminals and looters. Residents of Kyrgyzstan are frightened by the wave of violence; they are ready to support the government’s efforts to restore order. In addition, local entrepreneurs, as well as Russian, Kazakh and Chinese businesses, are interested in stabilization.

Kyrgyzstan chooses the present