Successor Uribe

There was no sensation in the presidential elections in Colombia. Juan Manuel Santos, representing the ruling Social Party of National Unity, having secured the support of 9 million voters, defeated his competitor with a convincing advantage in the second round. 3.5 million people voted for ethnic Lithuanian Antanas Mockus, the former mayor of Bogota, nominated by the Green Party. The gap is impressive. 69 versus 27.5%, but this was to be expected. After all, the situation became clearer already in the first round, which took place on May 30 of this year. Then the favorite did not reach the required minimum. All that remained were formalities. As Alejo Vargas, a professor at the National University of Colombia, figuratively put it, paraphrasing the title of the famous work of Nobel Prize winner Gabriel García Márquez, “Chronicle of an Announced Murder,” it was a victory declared in advance. Almost no one, including Mockus, doubted it.

This does not mean that there was no intrigue at all. The fact is that the young, energetic, ambitious politician Alvaro Uribe, who came to power in 2002, shortly before the expiration of his 4-year mandate, initiated a constitutional reform that abolished the ban on the second election of the president. This amendment was approved by parliament. In accordance with it, in 2006, on the wave of undoubted achievements in the fight against the partisan movement, he received the opportunity to remain in his post. Then, shortly before the next elections, voices began to be heard about the need to nominate the current head of state for a new term. This idea coincided with an acute institutional crisis. The reason for its emergence was the arrest of parliamentarians on charges of close ties with right-wing paramilitary groups. This kind of figure is called parapoliticians. Many of them supported and financed the first campaign of the current president. Last but not least, thanks to their activity, the amendment was adopted. A loud scandal broke out after MP Ildis Medina admitted that she supported the amendment in exchange for a promise to take a “warm place.” It was her voice in 2004. turned out to be decisive. The issue was then considered by the Supreme Court, which questioned the legitimacy of the reform. Later, the Constitutional Court found it possible to agree with such arguments.

As a result, a heated debate developed in society around the issue of the third term. It acquired particular significance in light of attempts to initiate a popular referendum on a new presidential term for Uribe. If this had happened, then on the wave of euphoria over the successes in the fight against the guerrilla movement and the release of hostages, Uribe would probably have been elected again. After all, his rating then reached 90%.

The point of the controversy was not whether the president would remain in office or not. We were talking about the fate of democracy and the rule of law. One of the prominent politicians, Senator from the Democratic Pole Gustavo Petro, expressed himself very clearly. He said: “Uribe has to choose between two options. Either prolong his stay in power, since he will have no rivals, or complete his second mandate with the man who broke the back of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.” The most famous former hostage, Ingrid Betancourt, also joined the discussion in absentia. In a lengthy interview, she touched on many of the country's pressing problems. Regarding the “third term,” she noted that this is a matter for the Colombians themselves (she also has French citizenship). But this is extremely dangerous for the democratic process; it cannot be associated with just one person; the way must be opened for representatives of another generation who can offer other alternatives.

In the run-up to the 2010 elections, zealous supporters of the president tried to repeat the experiment with constitutional reform. Over 5 million signatures were collected in support of the nomination. Vice President Francisco Santos has been very candid about this. He literally said the following: “The people should be able to elect a ruler who performs his duties well any number of times.” Former presidents Cesar Gaviria and Enrique Samper also took part in the discussions. Both of them were categorically against the re-election of Alvaro Uribe. One of them emphasized that in this particular case the question was not just about a third term, but about the perpetuation of power. Another expressed the belief that members of the highest constitutional authority will demonstrate independence from the government, act not like its friends and make a legally verified decision.

The situation in Colombia came to the attention of international analysts, who also became involved in the debate. Among them was the world famous Peruvian writer Mario Vargas Llosa. He spoke unequivocally and very categorically on this matter. “I am confident that this country has excellent leaders who can continue the excellent policies, put drug terrorism in retreat, strengthen democratic institutions, and combine this with economic policies that can lead to prosperity.” In his opinion, the ruler should not change the rules of the democratic game. In summary, he said: “Uribe was a magnificent head of state, and his government will be remembered as one of the most significant in the history of Colombia. If he comes forward again, then all his achievements will be devalued.” A prominent Venezuelan politician in the recent past, Fernando Ochoa Antic, also had his say. He did this in the form of an appeal to the Colombian leader, published in a newspaper under the headline: “Let me give you one piece of advice, President Uribe.” The essence of the message boiled down to an urgent recommendation to abandon intentions to run for a third term and from confrontation with other branches of government, since this is the only way to save a democratic rule of law state and implement long-overdue large-scale social and political reforms.

A public opinion poll conducted in early February 2010 showed that 54% were opposed to Uribe's participation in the upcoming elections. The head of state himself remained silent for a long time, avoided a direct answer, and limited himself to florid phrases like: everything depends on the will of God and the desires of the people. This could be interpreted as a willingness to run again if circumstances permit. At the same time, he admitted that eight years are clearly not enough to solve the accumulated problems of the country, which out of 200 years of independent existence, only 47 lived in peace. The end to the protracted process of uncertainty, when the actual start of the presidential campaign was postponed, was put by the verdict of the Constitutional Court, issued on February 25, 2010. The document declared illegal the attempt to convene a referendum in order to amend the constitution to allow secondary re-election. To the president’s credit, he responded to this verdict in the following way: he declared his readiness to continue to serve his homeland in any capacity. At the same time, he noted that a rule-of-law state presupposes respect for laws by both citizens and rulers.

Now let's move directly to the completed election campaign. At the first stage, 9 applicants took part in it. But two leaders immediately emerged. One of them is former Defense Minister Santos, who was seen as the heir to the current head of state, who promised to continue the course towards “democratic security” and expected to reap the fruits of this policy. On top of that, he promised to correct the imbalances that had emerged in relations with other branches of government, primarily the judiciary. At the same time, he relied on a well-established party machine and powerful administrative resources.

Another candidate is Antanas Mockus, a philosopher and mathematician who twice became mayor of the capital and was previously elected rector of the university. In all positions, he proved himself to be an extraordinary manager, capable of extravagant actions. His program emphasized the priority development of education and health care, democratization of political institutions, and targeted support for vulnerable segments of the population. He relied on the activity of the younger generation and communicated with them through high technology. This candidate, as the famous newspaper columnist Andres Oppenheimer subtly noted, would look great as president of a prosperous Finland, where the agenda is different from the problems in civil war-torn Colombia. The applicant's hopes for advanced groups of the population did not materialize; Many voters who promised to vote for him in online messages did not show up at the polling stations, citing unforeseen circumstances.

Vitoge Mockus received only 21.5% of the votes. In turn, Santos won 47%. By the way, on the eve of the elections, all local analysts, without exception, who regularly conducted opinion polls, predicted an almost equal result for the leading rivals, but they were seriously mistaken.

There was no longer any special meaning in the second round, but the laws had to be observed. Between rounds, the two eliminated candidates called on their voters to vote for Santos. In turn, Moskus rejected the offer of cooperation with the left Democratic Pole, counting on those who abstained from voting, of which there were many in both cases. So, on Sunday, June 20, out of 30 million voters, only 9 million, that is, about 45%, came to the ballot boxes. But this is considered a good indicator for a country where there has been a civil war for a long time.

The inauguration of 58-year-old Juan Manuel Santos is scheduled for August 7. He comes from a very wealthy and influential family, received an excellent education, studied military affairs, economics, finance and journalism. Many of his relatives were famous politicians, key ministers, and his grandfather's brother was the head of state. He himself was a member of the government several times.

Analysts point out significant differences in the styles of Uribe and Santos. They note that one is characterized by a confrontational manner of behavior, which gave rise to endless conflicts with the judiciary and neighbors. In addition, Uribe reduced cabinet members to the position of mere assistants. Santos is inclined to seek compromises and prefers to work in a team. Based on this, the conclusion is drawn: “Santos will not become Uribe II. Those who believe that one will become the other’s puppet are mistaken.”

Following the announcement of the election results, Santos called on Mockus to form governments of national unity, arguing that he wanted to see Colombia more just, exemplary and integral, “to lift the 4 million citizens” living below the poverty line out of poverty. He emphasized that he fully shares his opponent’s opinion on the need to strengthen human rights, law and order. The future president has already announced the appointment of a minister of finance. He will be Santos' longtime ally, Juan Carlos Echeveri. After the meeting with him, plans were announced to create 2.5 million new jobs and the intention to maintain state ownership of objects of strategic importance, in particular the Ecopetrol oil company.

The United States welcomed the coming to power of the new president and has no doubt about continuing the close alliance with its main strategic ally on the continent.

Despite Santos' best wishes, it will not be easy to normalize relations with neighbors Venezuela and Ecuador, since they consider the former defense minister to be the architect and mastermind of the March 2008 operation against rebel camps located in adjacent territories. As is known, it resulted in the death of a prominent guerrilla commander, Raul Reyes, and was regarded by the leaders of these countries as a gross violation of territorial integrity, which resulted in a severance of diplomatic relations. These events brought the Andean subregion to the brink of a large-scale war, which was averted thanks to the Organization of American States.

At the same time, Colombia stands for the intensification of comprehensive ties with our country in a variety of fields. It is even ready to buy weapons. Vice President Francisco Santos, who met with Dmitry Medvedev in June 2008 at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, as well as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, who recently visited Moscow, spoke directly about this. But Russia, which announced a strategic partnership with Venezuela, fears its negative reaction to the supply of military equipment to a neighboring country with which Caracas does not have the best relations.

Successor Uribe

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