Translated material
Customs secret
Minsk has created room for maneuver
The prospects for Minsk's participation in the Customs Union with Moscow and Astana remain uncertain. The main intrigue revolves around information about the Belarusian parliament considering the customs code behind closed doors. The final meeting of the spring session of parliament took place on June 30. Deputies asked questions to government representatives, after which they considered several bills. The issue of ratification of the customs code was not on the official agenda. However, starting late Wednesday evening, Russian news agencies, citing anonymous sources, began to publish reports about the ratification of the document at a closed parliamentary meeting. By the time the issue was signed for publication, this information had not received official confirmation or refutation.“The uncertainty factor in bilateral relations with Russia has recently been too great. Therefore, it is likely that Belarus actually decided to ratify the document at a closed parliamentary meeting. Minsk wants to leave room for maneuver so that, depending on further developments, it will be able to get out of a difficult situation,” Olga Abramova, a political scientist and former member of the Belarusian parliament, told Vremya Novostey.
On Wednesday afternoon, Deputy Prime Minister of the Belarusian government Vladimir Semashko told reporters that Belarus will decide on the issue of further participation in the trilateral Customs Union no earlier than July 4-5. According to him, Minsk continues negotiations on the abolition of duties on supplies of oil and petroleum products from Russia. Probably, the issue of duties will be discussed on July 5 during Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to the summit of the Customs Union countries in Astana.
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said yesterday that on July 5 it will be determined to what extent Belarus will participate in the Customs Union. On this day, “it will be determined finally to what extent the single customs territory exists.”
Obviously, Minsk intended to decide on its further actions depending on the outcome of the negotiations. In case of a favorable result, it would be possible not to convene the next session of parliament, but to immediately make public the fact of ratification of the code by parliamentarians. If the negotiations failed to achieve success, the consideration of the issue at a closed meeting was simply supposed to remain silent. Nevertheless, many Belarusian independent experts agree that sooner or later Minsk will decide to join the Customs Union in order to maintain the presence of its products on the Russian market.
“If Minsk does not sign the documents, there will be a threat of a serious deterioration in working conditions on the Russian market. Moscow will not even need to introduce restrictions against Belarusian goods; it will simply be able to establish special trading conditions for members of the Customs Union,” Irina Tochitskaya, deputy head of the research center at the Institute of Privatization and Management, explained to VN. The expert noted that the Russian market remains the main market for both Belarusian agricultural products and most industrial goods.
Belarusian media expert Leonid Mindlin, in an interview with VN, recalled that today the best conditions and infrastructure have been created on the Russian market for promoting Belarusian goods: “The Russian consumer is satisfied with the combination of price and quality, he knows the brands of Belarusian products. Belarusian service centers and sales networks operate in Russia.”
According to Olga Abramova, Minsk is being pushed to participate in the Customs Union not only by economic, but also by political reasons: “In the context of globalization, small countries like Belarus need to join, if not one, then another union. Today there are all the prerequisites to make a turn towards the West, but mental ideological barriers prevent this. Therefore, we can expect that Minsk will still participate in the Customs Union.”