| The ancient axiom “my friend's friend is my friend” often takes on bizarre forms in the geopolitically charged international energy business. The latest striking example of this is the behavior of the Prime Minister of Bulgaria from the right-wing party with the abbreviation GERB, Boyko Borisov. He is believed to have developed an excellent personal relationship with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. In just one year of his premiership, Mr. Borisov has already made an official visit to Rome and twice received the head of the Italian government in Sofia. Two weeks ago, they together unveiled a monument to the Italian national hero Giuseppe Garibaldi in the Bulgarian capital. Mr. Borisov stated that Garibaldi, as a fighter for the unification of Italy, admired the heroism of the Bulgarian people in the fight against Turkish slavery. Silvio Berlusconi tactfully avoided this topic, because the large-scale plans of the Italian giant Eni to transport Caspian oil bypassing the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits are connected with Turkey.
And here the bonds of friendship, flavored with “black gold”, form unexpected combinations. It's no secret that Silvio Berlusconi and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are also friends and periodically visit each other informally. But the Russian Prime Minister is unable to establish constructive contact with Boyko Borisov. A year ago, immediately after taking office, the new Bulgarian leader “suspended” all three energy megaprojects that were being worked on with the previous government of Sergei Stanishev - the Trans-Balkan oil pipeline, the South Stream gas pipeline and the Belene nuclear power plant.
Recently, Mr. Borisov has allowed himself to make public statements about the freezing of only two projects - oil and nuclear. He verbally supports South Stream - Gazprom's partner in the project is the Italian Eni, and Silvio Berlusconi has repeatedly said that this is, from his point of view, the most important gas pipeline. After his May trip to Rome, the Bulgarian Prime Minister unexpectedly spoke positively about the nuclear power plant project. It turned out that he discussed the possibility of involving Italian Enel in construction as a strategic investor. But a week after the end of the visit, Enel officially denied interest in the Bulgarian nuclear power plant and the project again found itself “in disgrace” with Mr. Borisov. And on June 11, at a meeting with ambassadors of EU countries, he announced that Bulgaria was freezing the Belene project and refused to participate in the construction of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline.
Here the peculiarities of oil friendship became even more pronounced. The trans-Balkan project, which Russia is promoting, is a direct competitor to the trans-Turkish Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline, in which Eni is actively involved. And Turkey and Italy are vitally interested in Moscow abandoning construction through the Balkans and sending additional volumes of its oil through the Turkish ports of Samsun and Ceyhan, and not through the Bulgarian Burgas and Greek Alexandroupolis.
Having posed the rhetorical question of why the Russian leadership is pushing Mr. Borisov towards such a decision with its actions and statements, one could put an end to it. But Vladimir Putin, who sent his first deputy Viktor Zubkov to Sofia for negotiations (they will take place today) on energy issues, instructed him to discuss in detail only South Stream and the Belene nuclear power plant.
Apparently, this could not have happened without high-ranking friendship and oil and gas geopolitics. The fact is that the head of the Russian government now also cannot handle the issue of the Trans-Balkan Pipe. A year ago, after a demarche on the part of Boyko Borisov, Vladimir Putin began negotiations with Turkey about joining the Samsun-Ceyhan project, yielding to long-standing persuasion from Silvio Berlusconi (he regularly invited his friend to this project). During this time, a couple of non-binding memorandums were signed on the possible participation of the Russian state-owned companies Transneft and Rosneft in the project. In exchange, Moscow wants to obtain Ankara's consent to build the South Stream in waters that are under the jurisdiction of Turkey. Gazprom expects the corresponding sanction from the Turkish authorities this fall. But whether Vladimir Putin is really ready to pay for this service with oil flow for the Samsun-Ceyhan route, he himself probably doesn’t know yet. Alexey Grivach | |