Vote for no one...

Could Medvedev beat Putin in the 2012 elections? After all, Medvedev began to gradually attract the interest of the public, and, more importantly, of some of the powers that be. These circumstances are reflected in the dynamics of the so-called ...

Could Medvedev beat Putin in the 2012 elections? After all, Medvedev began to gradually attract the interest of the public, and, more importantly, of some of the powers that be. These circumstances are reflected in the dynamics of the so-called ratings. Let's put it exactly: in the percentage distributions of answers to the question: "Do you generally approve or disapprove of the activities of the imyamerek as president (chairman of the government) of Russia?" (We are talking about all-Russian polls by the Levada Center, conducted on a nationally representative sample.)

Readers know that this figure for Putin from the very beginning was above 60%, and never fell below that during his presidency and premiership. Medvedev also received more than 60 percent from the first day of his tenure as president, but then the prime minister's figure was significantly higher. Further, both indicators fluctuated slightly, but their ratio did not change, public opinion, as it were, indicated to itself who was more important. However, while maintaining Putin's primacy (many other poll results testified to this primacy), Medvedev's rating in certain sections of society at times approached Putin's, and sometimes could even surpass it. For example, this July, 77% approved Putin's activities as prime minister and 72% approved Medvedev's activities as president. And among the few, but important groups of entrepreneurs or military personnel, the president was slightly ahead of the prime minister.

Maybe there's a new intrigue here? Can't be excluded. But the experience of recent years suggests that, unless there are drastic changes, the current ratio of the prime minister's and president's ratings will remain. In any case, the events of a sultry summer are not enough for changes.

Well, what are Medvedev's chances in the elections? In fact, both Putin and Medvedev declared that they would come to an agreement, that is, they honestly explained that the elections had nothing to do with it. But sometimes the rulers hinted at the fact that they mean to fight. Despite the dubiousness of this prospect, the Levada Center investigated the opinions of citizens on this matter from different angles. A year ago, in July 2009, Russians were directly asked who they would vote for if the presidential elections were held next Sunday? 29% would vote for Putin, 17% for Medvedev. This spring, citizens were asked not about who they would vote for, but: “Who would you like to see as president after the 2012 elections?” Putin - 35%, Medvedev - 23%. An even more tricky question was asked: “And who will become president after the 2012 elections?” 39% answered this - Putin, 25% - Medvedev. By this July, practically nothing has changed: they would prefer to see Putin as president - 26%, Medvedev - 15%.

Recently, there was a rumor that the Kremlin may also launch a third candidate. Well, back in April, 19% of the Russians polled said they would like to see "someone else" other than two well-known faces. However, it immediately turned out that only 11% really count on it. And in July, the same 19% declared their readiness to vote for "another" candidate. Who they might be is not clear. In any case, neither such names from past elections as Zhirinovsky or Zyuganov, nor Shoigu, the hero of this summer, nor less prominent persons, together gain 15%.

So far, the most interesting result of research on the forthcoming elections in a year and a half is the answer of no less than 26% of Russians who agree to see "either Medvedev or Putin as president - it doesn't matter which of them."