Stop negotiations

Tale of the White Bull: Direct talks between Israel and Palestine may break off as soon as they start

When journalists pester the US Presidential Envoy to the Middle East with skeptical questions about peace between Israelis and Palestinians, George Mitchell always makes the same argument. He talks about his peacekeeping successes in Northern Ireland, which eventually led to the signing of the Good Friday Accords in April 1998. On August 20, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the United States had achieved the resumption of direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine, reporters attacked Mitchell again.

They were interested in one thing: whether these negotiations would lead to at least some practical result. Journalists prepared for the hundredth time to hear about Northern Ireland, but Mitchell suddenly started talking about painting his own house. “With all the preparatory work, it dragged on so much that it seemed to me that the painting itself would never begin,” Mitchell said. “But when the painters did get to work—they finished very quickly!”

He apparently alluded to the protracted preparations for the resumption of negotiations, which were interrupted in December 2008. In recent months, diplomats have stumbled upon so many obstacles that it seems that only Barack Obama needs negotiations. The fact that the leaders of the warring parties agreed to sit down at the negotiating table this Thursday can already be called an achievement, but the Americans are aiming much further. Clinton said that this meeting will initiate a process that will remove all the accumulated problems and allow the conflict that has been going on for half a century to be resolved. In a year.

Simultaneously with Clinton, other mediators in the Middle East settlement - Russia, the EU and the UN - also spoke about the need to resume the peace dialogue. Their proposals for a way out of the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate have long been known: Israel renounces claims to the West Bank of the Jordan River and stops mass construction there. The state of Palestine is formed on this territory, and the Gaza Strip is included in it. Already existing Israeli settlements in the West Bank will not be demolished, but refugees will return to the country. States agree on mutual recognition and borders. Jerusalem becomes the common capital.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been publicly declaring for the past year and a half that he wants peace and is ready to make territorial concessions for the sake of a peaceful life for future generations. With what kind of proposals he flies to Washington, no one in Jerusalem can really say. Those close to the prime minister admit that even they are not familiar with the final version of the speech. It is known that Netanyahu is going to "silence the skeptics and conclude a historic agreement," but experts doubt that this is possible. The Israeli premier cannot even promise to extend the moratorium on new construction in the West Bank—that could lead to a break with his right-wing coalition partners. In a possible reserve, the prime minister still has the creation of a new coalition with the centrist Kadima party, but Netanyahu has tense relations with its leader Tzipi Livni.

The moratorium expires on September 26, and mass festivities and celebrations are already planned for this day in Jewish settlements. The United States demanded that Israel completely freeze construction and thus create a positive atmosphere for negotiations. But Netanyahu categorically refused to discuss it.

However, the previous decision on the moratorium was not made personally by the prime minister, but by an expanded cabinet for security issues, which includes 15 leading ministers. Even if Netanyahu wants to extend the building ban, he will need to at least reassemble his cabinet.

Last November, National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau was the only member of the Cabinet who vehemently opposed the moratorium. “In the Jewish state, about 20% is the Arab minority. Nothing prevents them from living, working and studying normally! Why should the Palestinians be bothered by the fact that 10% of their territory will be inhabited by Jews?” he argues in an interview with Newsweek. Landau is confident that the prime minister will not succeed in pushing the moratorium through the cabinet a second time. "If Netanyahu decides to do this, he will face a political fiasco," the minister says.

Meanwhile, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has already said that if bulldozers reappear on September 26 in the West Bank, he will immediately withdraw from the negotiations. Most Palestinian politicians are of the opinion that Netanyahu's right-wing coalition will not allow him to make the necessary concessions, and he is only playing for time with meaningless negotiations that will finally finish off the authority of the Palestinian president. "We understand the importance of this topic for the Palestinians," said State Department spokesman Philip Crowley, acknowledging that all American efforts are focused on resolving the moratorium issue.

At first, the Americans tried to put pressure on Israel. Because of this, relations with Tel Aviv deteriorated sharply and were called "the deepest crisis in 30 years." Vice President Joe Biden's conciliatory visit to Israel sparked yet another scandal following the planned but ill-timed announcement of a new construction site in East Jerusalem. The Obama administration took this as a direct provocation.

Obama's ratings are falling in the US largely due to his domestic politics, but the pressure on Israel has also taken its toll—there is now a risk that the American president will lose the support of the Jewish community. In 2008, 78% of American Jews voted for Obama. A recent Pew poll found that 33% of Jews today consider themselves Republicans. This is a major shift for a community that, by definition, was considered liberal-democratic and, despite its small size, took an active part in political campaigns. Obama is in dire need of this support now—in November, he will have an extremely important congressional election.

As a result, the White House launched a campaign to normalize relations with Israel. The demand to stop construction in East Jerusalem disappeared from public statements, replaced by more diplomatic language: "Our position on the settlements is well known." Here, however, another misfortune happened: Netanyahu's "positive" visit to Washington was postponed due to the incident with the storming of the Peace Flotilla, which was trying to break the blockade of the Gaza Strip. When the visit finally took place, Obama said he believed in Netanyahu's peaceful aspirations, but never once mentioned the issue of settlements. This could not but upset the Palestinians. Because of all these difficulties, the US administration's maximum program turned into a minimum program: to prevent Abbas and Netanyahu from slamming the door before the start of formal negotiations.

For the American president, who has already received the Nobel Peace Prize, this summit should mark the first achievement in the role of a peacemaker. Of course, Obama would have preferred this to have happened a year ago, when Netanyahu, Abbas, Clinton, and he gathered at the same table in a small room at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York. But then, except for the gloomy faces in the photographs, nothing happened. Obama had to admit: even if the Palestinians and Israelis are forced to sit at the same table, it is not certain that they will talk.

However, although the final goals of the Israeli prime minister are unclear, it is clear that Netanyahu is determined. He flies to Washington, despite the boycott of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, which has been going on for two months. Diplomats are on strike, demanding higher salaries. They go to work in jeans, shorts and flip-flops, ignore their official duties, and get very angry at Mossad officers who thwart their boycott by helping officials abroad.

Since last week, Israeli diplomats have a new enemy, the Ministry of Defense. Netanyahu asked the military to prepare a trip to Washington. However, it is possible that the diplomats will come to their senses. “The conditions of the employees of our Foreign Ministry really leave much to be desired,” an employee of the Israeli Embassy in the United States admitted in an interview with Newsweek. “But this is one of those moments for which you chose this career. Finally, something happens, and they tell you that you have nothing to do with it!

Read more about the strike of Israeli diplomats in the article " The Foreign Ministry is authorized to strike."