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The Ministry of Health and Social Development predicts a new increase in the number of unemployed
The Ministry of Health and Social Development is preparing new programs to stabilize the situation in the labor market and combat unemployment. Despite the spring-summer decline in the number of unemployed citizens, federal officials in charge of the labor market are not inclined to become overly optimistic. Russia is expecting an increase in the number of unemployed citizens, Deputy Minister of the Ministry Maxim Topilin made this forecast yesterday. “We expect there will be growth in the near future. I think this will happen from the beginning of October,” said Mr. Topilin. Even though the employment situation is still improving, experts predict an imminent overload of the labor market, which is due to the end of agricultural work and the lack of great demand for labor in the economy.Now, according to Mr. Topilin, the number of unemployed Russians is still declining. According to the Ministry of Health and Social Development, which takes into account only those unemployed who are registered at the labor exchange, over the last week the number of unemployed citizens reached 1 million 688 thousand people, or 2.4% of the country’s economically active population. But it is already clear that a new surge in unemployment in the fall will not allow a return to the employment figures of the fat 2000s. “We are unlikely to reach the pre-crisis unemployment threshold. And before the crisis there were 1.3-1.4 million people. We came close, but didn’t reach it,” stated Mr. Topilin.
It is noteworthy that, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), which, unlike government officials, calculates the so-called hidden unemployment, using the methodology of the International Labor Organization, the unemployment curve has already gone up. In July, the number of unemployed citizens, according to Rosstat, increased by 3%, reaching 5.6 million people. However, despite this, the Ministry of Health and Social Development is not going to play it safe and in the near future intends to adjust programs to combat unemployment. For example, Maxim Topilin said that the program for temporary employment of citizens, which was one of the most relevant at the height of the crisis, will be gradually phased out and will remain only in single-industry towns - very dangerous territories from the point of view of possible social protests.
In general, according to the deputy head of the Ministry of Health and Social Development, the emphasis in working to stabilize the labor market will be on programs to support small and medium-sized businesses. At the same time, new social support measures will be introduced. “We will create a program to support mothers who have gone on leave to raise their children. If it goes, we’ll make it permanent,” said Mr. Topilin.
At the same time, the official admits, the “headache” for the Ministry of Health and Social Development now is not the expected increase in unemployment, but the increase in the length of time citizens remain idle. “If before the crisis it was a little more than five months, now it’s more than six,” said Mr. Topilin.
According to Igor Polyakov, leading economist at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the upcoming surge in unemployment is associated with two factors. “On the one hand, this is seasonal - the main agricultural work will soon end,” the expert explained. On the other hand, he notes, we must not forget that the Russian economy has not yet fully recovered and the need for labor among Russian enterprises is far from pre-crisis levels. Igor Polyakov predicts that “the growth of unemployment will be smooth – around 0.5% per month.”