"Shogun" fights with the prime minister

Elections in Japan may change its policy towards the US, but not towards Russia

Today, in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the voting of deputies of parliamentary factions will complete the procedure for electing its new chairman, who will automatically become the new prime minister of the country. The current head of the party, 63-year-old Prime Minister Naoto Kan, and another party heavyweight, 68-year-old Ichiro Ozawa, a former chairman and secretary general of the same party, are competing for these posts. The internal party positions of Naoto Kan, who replaced Yukio Hatoyama in early June, were weakened by the failure of his party members in the July elections to the upper house of parliament.

Polls show that there are four times more Japanese who sympathize with Kan than Ozawa supporters, but only members of the DPJ choose the chairman of the DPJ, and according to a complex scheme. The winner must receive a majority of 1222 points. Of these, 411 Democratic deputies in the lower and upper houses of parliament each have two points, that is, the decisive 822 votes that will be distributed today. In addition, deputies of local legislative assemblies and ordinary party members also vote. Both began voting last Saturday and mostly in favor of Kahn.

Ozawa is supported by a significant number of members of the central parliament, many of whom he opened the way to political life. He is also credited with being the author of the crushing defeat of the Liberal Democrats who had ruled for almost half a century in the parliamentary elections on September 30, 2009 - then Ozawa was the Secretary General of the DPJ. For this they began to call him the “shadow shogun” (shogun is a military ruler in feudal Japan). However, he is accused of receiving illegal donations, which is why he resigned as Secretary General in June at the same time as Prime Minister Hatoyama.

Japanese experts call Ozawa a “stronger and more influential” figure than Kan, but they did not dare predict the outcome of their fight yesterday. Both politicians said on the eve of the vote that if they lost, they would help each other in order to preserve the unity of the party. Moreover, Ozawa promised that, having become prime minister, he would offer key posts in the cabinet to Kan and Hatoyama. By the way, the latter recently participated in a political forum in Yaroslavl at the invitation of President Dmitry Medvedev.

“The two rivals have significant differences in their approaches to economic policy,” Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Vremya Novostei. Naoto Kan, former finance minister, "advocates cuts in government spending and a highly unpopular increase in consumption tax." Ichiro Ozawa is a supporter of further “pumping” the economy with government money. It is possible that if successful in the elections, he “will authorize a new issue of government bonds, although this will certainly lead to an increase in Japan’s public debt, which already amounts to about 200% of gross domestic product.”

The main difference in foreign policy views is “in relation to the transfer of the US Marine base Futenma to Okinawa.” On this issue, “Americans are rooting for Kahn,” as he says he will abide by an agreement reached in May of this year that would not evacuate the base, but move it to a less populated part of the island. Ozawa believes that this agreement should be revised, since the base of the US 7th Fleet in the Japanese port of Yokosuka is “quite enough for the Americans to ensure security in the region.” The expert is confident that “Japanese policy towards Russia will not be affected in any way by the outcome of the elections in the party, since in its relations with Japan the main issue is territorial, and on this the position of this country, no matter who comes to power there, will not change” .

Alexander SAMOKHOTKIN