Translated material
Bearish angles
United Russia is again out of competition in regional elections
Support for the party in power in the regions has decreased by almost 10% compared to the 2007 parliamentary elections, while opposition parties are gaining points. Nevertheless, United Russia continues to win all elections with a significant advantage. These are the results of the single voting day on October 10.The most large-scale campaigns were carried out this fall in six federal subjects, whose residents elected regional parliaments. The average turnout for these elections was 49%. This is significantly lower than in the parliamentary elections (63%), but higher than in elections of a similar level in March 2010, when 42% of those on the voter lists came to the polling stations. However, in four voting regions, turnout revolved around the March level: from 45% in the Chelyabinsk region to 35% in the Novosibirsk region. Voters of the Republic of Tuva (almost 67%) contributed to the increase in the “average temperature in the hospital” - such increased activity has always been characteristic of national republics with their “specific electoral culture.” Only the Belgorod region stood out from the general row with 64% turnout, which puts this quite ordinary region on a par with the national republics.
The expected favorite in all six regions was United Russia. However, the performance of the party in power compared to the parliamentary elections and previous single voting days is slowly but steadily declining. If in December 2007 the “bears” easily stormed a height of 65%, now the cherished level has become a barrier of 50%. It was not without a stretch that United Russia members overcame it in the Chelyabinsk (55%), Magadan (50.8%) and Kostroma (50%) regions. In the Novosibirsk region, the “bears” failed to reach this level - they received only 44% of the votes. The voting in Tuva, where United Russia gained about 78%, and in the Belgorod region, where the result of the ruling party reached 66%, stood out from this trend. And this was the only region where the result of United Russia was at least one percent higher than the result in the Duma elections of December 2007. In the remaining subjects of the federation, the party in power “sank.” Thus, in the last parliamentary elections in Tuva, the “bears” received 89%, in the Chelyabinsk region - 63%, and 55-56% each in the Magadan, Kostroma and Novosibirsk regions.
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation finished in second place in four regions, improving its performance compared to December 2007. The communists received 15% in Magadan (in the Duma elections - 11%), 25% in Novosibirsk (18%), 19.4% in Kostroma (13.26%), 17.7% in Belgorod (15.6%) areas. “A Just Russia” managed to bypass the “Reds” in the Chelyabinsk region (14.6%) and the Republic of Tuva (10.37%). However, in these two regions, the results of the Communist Party were a percentage or two higher than the level of parliamentary elections.
In addition to Tuva and the Southern Urals, the “Socialist Revolutionaries” performed successfully in the Magadan (11%) and Kostroma (12%) regions, and in the Novosibirsk region they set their record for this campaign - 16.25%. In all these three regions, the leader of A Just Russia, Sergei Mironov, personally headed the electoral list as a “locomotive”. The party waged a particularly active campaign in the Novosibirsk region, where, as Mr. Mironov admitted at yesterday’s press conference, the rating of the “Socialist Revolutionaries” at the beginning of the campaign was only 2%. Because of this, at the end of the summer it was necessary to urgently change the head of the regional party branch and call in teams of “Socialist Revolutionaries” from other regions for help.
This caused some disapproval at the Central Election Commission. In particular, the head of the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Churov, explained the low turnout in the region yesterday by saying that “Siberians generally do not like it when people from other regions come to campaign for them.” The numbers, however, cast doubt on this. But the minimum result of “A Just Russia” was recorded in the Belgorod region - 5.15%. The “Socialist Revolutionaries” did not even pass the 7 percent entry barrier here and received one seat in the regional Duma due to the rule on the “incentive mandate.” “Another conciliatory position of the head of the regional department - he tried to come to an amicable agreement with the governor,” - this is how Sergei Mironov explained this defeat. And he emphasized that the “compromiser” would probably pay for this with his party position.
But A Just Russia, on the contrary, will not abandon the other loser - the mayor of Samara Viktor Tarkhov - to his fate. Let us remind you that until yesterday he was the only “Socialist Revolutionary” at the post of head of a large regional center. With a result of 18%, he lost the election to the regional Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources from United Russia Dmitry Azarov (66%). However, Mr. Tarkhov was not seen in any “compliance”. “He is a real fighter,” Mr. Mironov praised his party colleague. “He made mistakes, but as a business executive.” The leader of the Social Revolutionaries does not rule out that in 2011 the party will nominate the Samara ex-mayor as a candidate for State Duma deputy on the regional list.
Meanwhile, as it turned out, there were power outages in Samara on Sunday, for which the head of the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Churov, is going to punish the current city administration.
The fourth parliamentary party, the LDPR, habitually took fourth place in the elections, sending two or three deputies to regional parliaments everywhere. The highest result was for the Liberal Democrats in the Kostroma (14%) and Magadan (13.5%) regions. The LDPR received 10-11% in Siberia and the Southern Urals, 7% in the Belgorod region and an impassable 3.2% in Tuva with its “special electoral culture.” These figures correspond to the party’s results in the 2007 parliamentary elections, the difference does not exceed 1-2%. A relative breakthrough is observed only in the Kostroma region - there in the Duma elections the liberal democrats received only 10%.
Non-parliamentary nano-parties - “Patriots of Russia”, “Right Cause” and “Yabloko” - never received a result significantly different from the statistical error, and did not get their representatives into regional parliaments. True, in some places they managed to perform well at the municipal level. For example, in the Duma of the Oktyabrsky District of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, out of 16 seats, as many as 11 will go to Yabloko.
As for the distribution of mandates in regional legislative assemblies, elections were held everywhere according to a mixed system: half of the corps was elected from party lists, half from majoritarian constituencies. The absolute majority of the winning single-mandate candidates are also representatives of United Russia. Taking this into account, legislative assemblies will almost everywhere be four-party, but the opposition will receive a few seats in them, the rest will go to United Russia. Only the Tuvan khural will be bipartisan - 29 “bears” will sit there, along with two “Socialist Revolutionaries” and one more single-mandate non-party self-nominated candidate.
The parties themselves assessed the elections differently. The Bears are reporting another victory. “The majority of voters see United Russia as a political force capable of ensuring high-quality socio-economic development and defending the interests of its voters,” Boris Gryzlov, leader of the party in power, commented on the voting results yesterday. His rival Sergei Mironov operates with different figures: “Compared to the Duma elections, United Russia received 10% less votes, and ours received 50% more votes.” The head of the Socialist-Revolutionaries compares the level of violations with the scandalous elections in October 2009, which ended with a joint demarche of the entire parliamentary opposition, which boycotted State Duma meetings.
And the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov generally announced that the Communist Party is not going to recognize the results of the elections in three regions: in Tyva, in the city of Chapaevsk and in Krasnodar, where the communists tried to withdraw from the elections at the last moment. According to Mr. Zyuganov, the legal service of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is already preparing a special appeal to the European Court.
Representatives of the expert community also differ in their assessments of election day. General Director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov told Vremya Novostey that this is “an unprecedented victory for United Russia in the context of the changing political situation.” According to the expert, “the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was unable to ride the wave of fires and the theme of rising prices,” and the leader of A Just Russia suffered a “political defeat” because he did not bring his party to second place in those regions where he personally headed the list.
Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technologies Alexey Makarkin sees the election results somewhat differently. “The ambitions of the parties are growing, now they have begun to fight not for the very fact of entering parliament, but for a good result, for second place,” he told Vremya Novostei. “And where the same “A Just Russia” really competed with “United”, it received quite a lot, as in the Novosibirsk and Chelyabinsk regions.”
According to the analyst, “the October 2009 model is gone,” but may unexpectedly return in December 2011 during the State Duma elections. Therefore, one of the key issues will now be the regional elections in March 2011, which United Russia proposes to combine with parliamentary ones and postpone to December. “Another election with a more competitive system would be a plus for the electoral system,” says Alexey Makarkin. This would also be a plus for the parties: a year-long break could weaken their branches in the regions too much. “United Russia,” for which administrative resources work, is not as scary as the systemic opposition.
Well, the most non-standard assessment of the elections on October 10 was given by the chairman of the Central Election Commission of Chuvashia, Lyudmila Linik, who resigned the very next day after the vote. In the republic, only the Cheboksary City Assembly of Deputies was elected, where, with a turnout of 25%, United Russia took 27 mandates out of 33, four went to self-nominated candidates and one each to a communist and a Socialist-Revolutionary. The voting process reportedly made Ms. Linick "a little doubtful" about the current electoral system. Member of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation Nina Kulyasova went to Chuvashia to sort out these doubts. There is no official reaction from the Central Election Commission yet.
The police summed up the voting results
17 criminal cases were initiated following the results of the regional elections held on October 10, First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation Mikhail Sukhodolsky told reporters yesterday, INTERFAX reports.
"The internal affairs bodies registered about 380 reports of administrative offenses, three criminal cases were initiated. In particular, in the Republic of Dagestan - under Article 141 (violation of the procedure for financing an election campaign), Article 325 (theft or damage to documents, stamps or stamps), in the Novosibirsk region - under Art. 325 (theft or damage to documents, stamps or seals), and in the Primorsky Territory - Art. 207 (knowingly false report of an act of terrorism),” said Mr. Sukhodolsky, summing up the results of the past elections.
According to him, in total, over the entire period of preparation and conduct of the elections, over 1.4 thousand reports of incidents were registered, for which 17 criminal cases were initiated. The largest number of messages were registered in the Samara, Novosibirsk and Moscow regions. According to the First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, over 100 thousand police officers, about 8 thousand military personnel of the internal troops, about 1 thousand cadets and students of educational institutions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as almost 10 thousand volunteers were involved in protecting public order and security during the elections. people's warriors and over 1 thousand representatives of the Cossacks.