Japanese Gambit

It seems that the Japanese were simply played: they sharply aggravated relations so that they would take Shikotan and Habomai, while they give

The aggravation of relations with Japan as a result of Dmitry Medvedev's three-hour flight to the South Kuril Kunashir, from where you can see neighboring Hokkaido in good weather, turned out to be temporary and outwardly incomprehensible. In Tokyo, they figured it was part of...

The aggravation of relations with Japan as a result of Dmitry Medvedev's three-hour flight to the South Kuril Kunashir, from where you can see neighboring Hokkaido in good weather, turned out to be temporary and outwardly incomprehensible. In Tokyo, they came up with the idea that this is part of the preparations for the presidential elections in 2012, that Medvedev is competing with Vladimir Putin, who is better at defending the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation in order to win votes. But this theory, based on the political reality of the Western world, suggests an absurdity: that Putin and Medvedev will decide who is in charge in the country in free elections and then patiently wait for what people decide there alone with an urn in a booth.

Also doubtful are the assertions that control over the South Kuriles should be established at any cost in order to preserve the rights to fish resources, because of potential oil and gas reserves, in order to prevent a precedent for revising the borders established as a result of World War II. It is not known whether there is oil and gas, and it will still not work to develop without the consent of Japan in disputed waters. In Yalta in 1945, Roosevelt and Churchill gave Stalin half of Europe and the Kuriles in addition, but the Yalta system collapsed, only old maps remained of the former borders and spheres of influence. By the way, in the midst of the current crisis, when on November 3 the Japanese Ambassador Masahara Kono left for Tokyo “for consultations”, a source in our Foreign Ministry confirmed that Russia agreed, in accordance with the Soviet-Japanese declaration of 1956, to give up the South Kuril island of Shikotan, as well as the islets of Habomai after the signing of the peace treaty. That is, Moscow agrees to a compromise on fish, because Shikotan traditionally has the main route, and a revision of the post-war borders is still possible, only Tokyo also demands Kunashir and Iturup, and this is a fundamental problem, and not directly related to Japan.

The real naval component of the Russian nuclear strategic deterrence forces today consists of 11 old strategic missile submarines: 5 very old project 667 BDR (Delta-3) and 6 newer, project 667 BRDM (Delta-4). All Delta-4 submarines and one Delta-3 are based on the Kola Peninsula and patrol in the Barents Sea. The remaining 4 submarines of project 667 BDR are based in Kamchatka in Vilyuchinsk. Submarines Delta-4 have been upgraded and may remain in service until the 18th year or longer. All Delta-3s should be decommissioned within the next few years.

In the 1990s, the Ministry of Defense planned, out of economy, and also because of the sharp reduction in the Navy, not to disperse the rest of the forces and to keep only one area of ​​​​basing the nuclear strategic fleet - on the Kola Peninsula. But now infrastructure is being built in Vilyuchinsk to receive the Yuri Dolgoruky, the first of a new class of strategic submarines, the Borey, with the Bulava missile. Until 2020, they plan to build 8 more Boreys in Severodvinsk and send them to Kamchatka.

The Bulava must overcome any existing and prospective missile defense systems, that is, it is intended to deter the United States. Meanwhile, the Russian military authorities have serious doubts that the reduced and rapidly aging general-purpose air, sea and submarine forces will be able to cover the new Boreas in the Barents Sea from US and NATO anti-submarine forces. The construction of new ships (including aircraft carriers) is planned to protect the deployment zone of strategic submarines. But so far it has not been possible to significantly speed up shipbuilding programs, and the Black Sea Fleet urgently requires considerable reinforcements. All that remains is the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, where strategic submarines go on combat patrols from Vilyuchinsk.

The Sea of ​​Okhotsk is separated from the Sea of ​​Japan by Sakhalin and from the Pacific Ocean by the Kuril Ridge. As long as Russia controls the islands, the straits can be mined, long-range underwater acoustic location antennas are deployed there, and one can hope that American multi-purpose submarines will not go there unnoticed, while they go to the Barents Sea as if they were at home. Therefore, the new Boreas are sent to Kamchatka. In the event of the cession or demilitarization of Kunashir with Iturup, the Sea of ​​Okhotsk will turn from a refuge into a trap for the latest strategic submarines. The current strategy of building new Boreis first, for which hundreds of billions have already been spent, will become completely meaningless, and only then - building up the forces of their protection. As long as Russia continues to build defense and nuclear deterrence, considering the United States the main goal and "probable adversary", it is impossible to give up Kunashir and Iturup, and fish and caviar have nothing to do with it.

At the same time, Russia needs Japanese investment so that Siberia and the Far East do not become completely dependent on China. Advanced Japanese technologies are also needed. Therefore, Moscow is ready to give up Shikotan from Habomai - this is the Small Kuril ridge, which lies to the east of the main one, and it does not block the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. So, for the sake of improving relations, Putin gave China the disputed islands along the Amur and Ussuri.

It seems that the Japanese were simply played: first, they sharply aggravated relations in order to impose a desired compromise later. To take Shikotan from Habomai, while they give. The Japanese succumbed to a certain extent: Ambassador Kono quickly returned to Moscow, Medvedev sent a conciliatory message to Tokyo, and successfully met with Prime Minister Naoto Kan in Yokohama. The parties agreed to develop friendly relations on the basis of a "dialogue of trust". But the story is not over, the Japanese will be squeezed, obviously, by the same method of stick and carrot.