Orientalist Andrey Lankov - On the consequences of shelling the territory of South Korea

On the air of Radio Liberty - a specialist in North Korea, professor at the University of Kunmin in Seoul Andrey Lankov :

- No one is going to start a new war. In this way, the North Koreans are trying to attract attention. For several years now, they have been trying with all their might to achieve the resumption of full -scale economic assistance, which was discontinued in 2008, when the government of Lee Men Buck came to power in Seoul. And in order to remind the Americans about their existence, the North Koreans invited the American delegation and showed them many, many centrifugs, which do high-quality purified uranium. This is also a message: “You are there in the White House, you hear us? We are here, we are. We are very dangerous. We are absolutely unpredictable. We, if hungry, is, that we can’t do it! So do not forget to give us money.”

There are probably also domestic political considerations. There, after all, the young 27-year-old brilliant comrade Kim Jong UN needs to prove to the generals that he is severe. However, I think this is already secondary. And the main thing is asking for money. They always ask, but no one is going to fight, of course. What war?! Nobody needs them in a nightmare.

- The first reaction of American circles to the demonstration of the new Uranus enrichment plant that you are talking about is that the United States excludes the possibility of returning to six -sided negotiations. This reaction is the opposite of the one that is achieved, in your words, in North Korea. What can be further steps?

- The Americans are now in a very unpleasant position. For almost 20 years, they hoped that if the North Koreans relate correctly, make concessions, give them money, provide unilateral assistance, then they would agree to full nuclear disarmament. Finally, for the past couple of years, it became clear to the Americans that under no circumstances North Korea would not surrender nuclear weapons. Now the hopes for sanctions are entitled. I do not think that the view of these 1000-1200 centrifugs showed Siegfried Hecker (an American nuclear scientist who visited the Yellow Sea on the eve of the North Korean nuclear facilities.-RS) will sharply change the American position on this issue. Moreover, I talked with Hecker shortly before his departure to Pyongyang. He, in general, expected this. So, there is no particular surprise in this.

However, the North Koreans are sure that the water is sharpening the stone. They will continue to increase tension. They will do more and more uranium. Most likely, they will soon conduct the third nuclear test. A lot of interesting things are waiting for us. And, frankly, I think that sooner or later I will still have to pay. Already, apparently, not for the nuclear disarmament of the DPRK, but simply for freezing existing programs. However, now the Americans are not ready for this.

-Could it happen that in its actions North Korea will cross some line, after which the world community will stop this wait policy?

- Honestly, I do not know what they should do for this. If they fire at Seoul tomorrow - and I say this, sitting very close to the North Korean border - and then there will be no war. If they are seriously poking from all the available guns along Seoul half an hour or an hour, then the war will probably begin; And 5-6 shells will not change anything. South Korea will not respond. South Korea is afraid of war. Here they know that in the case of a large -scale war, South Korea wins it guaranteed - but the cost of such losses that are completely unacceptable for South Korea. And the second question: what to do after South Korea wins? The authorities of South Korea do not really want to contact the DPRK reconstruction .

- What is the position of China? Why are they waiting there? Do Beijing feel the danger emanating from North Korea for themselves?

- Feel. But there are many dangers from North Korea for China. Beijing does not like that North Korea is nuclear - it is dangerous, it can push the nuclear weapons race in the region - with nuclear Japanese as an almost inevitable result. China is dissatisfied with such provocations, because they increase tension, and for the Chinese economy you need stability. On the other hand, China does not want to clamp the North Korea in a corner. In a long -term plan for China, a serious domestic political crisis in North Korea is more dangerous than North Korean nuclear weapons - and more dangerous, the more the negative economic consequences, to which the provocations of this kind lead. China has to deal with a choice of 3-4 evils. He tries to choose the smallest. And this smallest evil is just a relatively tolerant attitude to the antics of the North Korean government. However, the word "trick" does not fit here: it is completely calculated and rational actions.