Translated material
In search of a strategist
The government has determined the procedure for the privatization of Rosneft
According to the plan for the sale of state assets published on the website of the Ministry of Economic Development, the privatization of a blocking stake in Rosneft, the country's largest oil company, will be carried out in two stages. 15% will be offered to buyers on the open market, and for the remaining 10% minus one share it is planned to find a strategic investor.The privatization program was approved at a government meeting last Thursday (see Vremya Novostei, November 18) , but the exact parameters of the denationalization of Rosneft have only now become clear. According to the leading specialist of the market research department at IFD Capital, Vitaly Kryukov, it was decided to sell the blocking stake in parts, since such a volume of shares could hardly be sold entirely on the free market. “Investors are now ready to buy Brazil, China - everything except Russia. The fact is that the fundamental value of companies is not disclosed. That is, under the current tax regime there is no point in carrying out privatization. Only when investors clearly understand what the taxation procedure will be will privatization be successful,” the expert is confident.
At the same time, according to the head of the investment analysis department of Management Company Univer, Dmitry Aleksandrov, Rosneft securities will not experience a lack of purchasing interest. “Some of the shares that will be sold on the free market are of interest to large funds. Commodity securities backed by state support are a guarantee of, although not very high, but stable income. Even unfavorable tax decisions will affect Rosneft to a lesser extent than other companies,” the expert believes. As for the candidacy of a strategic investor, analysts are already offering a whole list of possible candidates. Dmitry Alexandrov is convinced that a share in Rosneft could be of interest to both Western majors and Russian corporations. “It could be anyone. And the French Total, and the Italian Eni, and the British BP, and the Chinese CNPC, with which Rosneft recently agreed to expand cooperation within the framework of the Vostok-Energy joint venture, and even the domestic Surgutneftegaz,” the expert noted.
Let us recall that Surgutneftegaz was previously named as a possible contender for a stake in Rosneft. However, according to Dmitry Alexandrov, the buyer himself will not receive large benefits from such an acquisition. “Surgutneftegaz, of course, could use the funds received from the sale of its stake in the Hungarian MOL to purchase 10% of Rosneft, although there will be no talk of any synergy here. But a company with savings would provide a lump sum of money to a company with debts,” the expert concluded.