The GLONASS satellite launch investigation commission is considering the most likely cause of the failure: the mass of the head of the launch vehicle could be higher than expected. It seems that when refueling the upper stage DM-03, they filled in a ton more fuel than necessary.
Recall that immediately after the launch on December 5, GLONASS General Designer Yuri Urlichich announced a successful launch. However, it soon became known that the upper stage with three satellites entered an open orbit and sank in the Pacific Ocean 1.5 thousand kilometers from the Hawaiian Islands.
As Igor Lisov, editor of the Novosti Kosmonavtiki magazine, explains, if the upper stage really turned out to be a ton heavier, this well explains the fact that by the time the upper stage with satellites was separated, the speed of the launch vehicle was less than the calculated one by about 100 meters per second. The engines of the launch vehicle turned off, having completely exhausted all the fuel reserves, and the upper stage, together with the satellites, began to fall. By the time it was supposed to turn on for the first time, it was all over.
As announced by the press secretary of Roscosmos Alexander Vorobyov, if the launch on December 5 had gone well, the GLONASS system would have provided satellite signals to the entire surface of the Earth. Now the signal covers 96%. True, according to Vorobyov, replacements for the lost satellites will be created within a few months.
According to Igor Lisov, the consequence of an unsuccessful launch will be a delay of the GLONASS program for six months. “The next year, eight GLONASS-M satellites were ordered. All of them were supposed to replace the already existing ones, Lisov explains. “It will be more difficult in a short time to make a launch vehicle and an upper stage for launching out of turn.”
President Dmitry Medvedev has already instructed the Prosecutor General's Office and the control department of the presidential administration to investigate the causes of the loss of satellites and submit proposals "on the responsibility of persons involved in what is happening," as well as to check how budget funds are spent on the creation of the GLONASS orbital constellation. The interdepartmental commission, which includes representatives of Roskosmos, enterprises of the rocket and space industry and the Ministry of Defense, is looking for the culprits. According to a Novaya Gazeta source in Roskosmos, judging by this reaction, the investigation will end with a change in the head responsible for the mistake.