Middle Eastern Mobius loop

Israel's survival as a state depends on its leadership

The conference held recently in Malta, organized by RIA Novosti jointly with the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences within the framework of the international discussion club “Valdai”, was devoted to discussing models of Middle East settlement and scenarios for the development of the situation in the region. Participants made another attempt to understand why the protracted conflict between Arabs and Israelis remains unresolved. Among the questions was this: “Do we need new ideas or do we just need to implement what politicians have long agreed upon?” In my opinion, there were a lot of new interesting ideas, but there is no hope that they will be implemented more successfully than the old ones.

In 1858, two German mathematicians discovered a feature of the strip, called the Möbius loop after one of them. Take a strip of paper and connect its ends, first turning one of them over - here you have that same loop. This is a symbol of infinity: no matter where you start moving along it, you will move forever. If you don’t get tired of the meaningless movement and don’t run out of strength.

This model fully characterizes what is happening in the Middle East settlement. An endless process with ups and downs, but no progress. Israel's steady development of more and more Palestinian territories for settlements, making the creation of a full-fledged Palestinian state increasingly impossible. The world community is demanding its creation with growing insistence. The US President even stated in his speech this fall at the UN General Assembly that by the next session we will have an agreement that will lead to the admission of a new state to the UN. Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad also talks about the creation of a Palestinian state in 2011. This is encouraging, although it is not clear what Barack Obama can do to achieve this.

The leadership of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) has already done a lot for the functioning of its statehood. From collecting taxes to fighting terrorists. A recent World Bank report on Palestine states that the local administration has “made progress in maintaining expenditures on target and has improved tax collection”: “If it can maintain current levels of institution-building and public service provision, it will be in able to create a state in the near future." Said even more encouragingly.

Of course, the conflict between the Palestinian movements Fatah and Hamas, as well as the disunity of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, hinder progress, but this is not the main obstacle today to achieving peace between Israelis and Palestinians. The PNA has long outlined its principled position in the peace process. A state within the 1967 borders with the agreed exchange of certain sections of the West Bank and Gaza Strip with the capital in East Jerusalem - this is in exchange for the final renunciation of claims to all of Palestine and a willingness to live in peace with Israel, accepting its security as an imperative.

But settlement is a two-way street. It is good that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally recognized the principle of “two states for two peoples.” But in order to bring it to life, one more thing must be done: abandon the crazy idea of ​​​​preserving “Judea and Samaria” (West Bank) for the Israelis. But then Netanyahu will lose the support of the forces that entered into a coalition with his Likud party, and possibly support within Likud itself. The Israeli prime minister not only takes the issue of Jerusalem out of the scope of the negotiations, which he considers as “the eternal and indivisible capital of the Jewish state” (contrary to the provisions of the “road map” approved in May 2005 by the Sharon government, where Netanyahu was a minister), but also leaves the question of the borders of a future Palestinian state.

An increasing number of analysts are coming to the conclusion that the idea of ​​the inevitability of creating an independent Palestinian state is not at all obvious to the Israeli prime minister. However, as Akiva Eldar recently wrote in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, “either Jerusalem will become the capital of two nations, or Israel will be the state of two nations.” Many Israeli analysts believe that their current authorities, by annexing Palestinian territories, are dooming the Zionist state itself, while the leaders of the PNA, having agreed to the creation of their own mini-state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (only 22% of the territory of Palestine! ), thereby ensuring its survival. Along with the creation of such a mini-state, Israel's survival will also be facilitated by its withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which will ensure peace with Syria. “So why do we Israeli Jews resist this so fiercely?” - exclaims Daniel Gavron in an article in the American magazine Newsweek. The author's paradoxical conclusion: the Palestinians are “the last Zionists.”

What to do in conditions when fatigue from circling in the Middle East Mobius loop can again explode the situation in the region, lead to new victims and bury hopes for a lasting and just peace? This is what American analyst Roger Cohen suggests when he discusses what President Obama can do to ensure that his rosy promises do not remain on paper due to the stubbornness of the Israeli prime minister and his coalition partners. If Netanyahu does not cooperate with Obama's 2011 goal, the American president should tell him: “In this case, Mr. Prime Minister, I have no choice but to negotiate with Medvedev, Sarkozy, Cameron and Hu in the Council.” UN Security resolution on the creation of Palestine within the 1967 borders and invite all states of the world to recognize it.” It is quite possible to agree with such a proposal, although it is still difficult to imagine that the US President, who is so dependent on the Israeli lobby, could take such a step.

However, the US attitude towards Israel is undergoing a transformation. Criticism of the current Israeli authorities is heard more and more often. Moreover, from the circles of the US Jewish community. It seems that the Israelis have not yet realized how Washington's attitude towards them is changing. So will we be celebrating the creation of a new independent state of Palestine next year? I would like to hope.

Vitaly NAUMKIN, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, - for Vremya Novostei