President Yanukovych demonstrates force

The basis for the resignation of Vladimir Stelmakh from the post of chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine in the presidential administration was called an advanced age (on January 18 of next year he will be 72 years old). However, the Ukrainian press connects the resignation of the stelmach with his refusal to turn on the printing press. Additional billions of hryvnias are necessary for the government of Nikolai Azarov to reduce the state budget deficit. Obviously, this can be done by the new head of the National Bank, close to the family of the head of state of thirty -four -year -old Sergey Arbuzov.

Many financiers are shocked by the President’s personnel decision, but, nevertheless, expect a stable hryvnia course to preserve. At the same time, according to the opponents of the authorities, the appointment of Arbuzov "means the privatization of the Central Bank by the Yanukovych family" and "establishing full control over the country's banking system." The situation is commented by the director of the Penta Political Research Center Vladimir Fesenko :

- There can be tools on the banking system. But let's not forget about a very important thing: now there are many Western and Russian banks in the banking market of Ukraine, and if the redistribution trends in the banking sector are extinguished, the “collision” on Western and Russian banks will begin, then reputation problems may arise atYanukovych himself. Therefore, I think that the influence of the "family" on the banking sector will increase significantly, but I would not yet talk about complete control and complete subordination. So far, Arbuzov is not experienced enough, ”says Vladimir Fesenko.

The parliamentary majority not only supported the president’s proposals to change the leadership of the National Bank, but also quickly approved the budget for the next year. Two opposition fractions - the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko and “Our Ukraine - People’s Self -Defense” - left Rada before the consideration of this issue, saying that they would not take part “in the antisocial farce”. Vladimir Fesenko says that the opposition’s assessments are political in nature:

- I would look at what budget the opposition would have accepted if it was in power now. The macroeconomic parameters of this budget are determined by the International Monetary Fund, at least agreed with it. As for, say, not very high social indicators, they cannot be high in the current socio-economic situation. You have to be a realist ...

Meanwhile, the opposition said that they would boycott the meetings of the parliament before the execution of the Ultimatum authorized power. They insist on bringing to criminal liability of deputies and ministers from the ruling party of regions, which brutally beaten in the evening of December 16 in the Rada of parliamentarians of Blok Tymoshenko. The prosecutor’s office in the actions of the “regionals” does not see the corpus delicti and initiated a criminal case in fact against the victims - for blocking the work of the Verkhovna Rada by them.

Another opposition requirement is to stop the criminal prosecution of the ex-Prime Minister and members of the previous government. The next detained Prosecutor General of Ukraine on the eve was the former First Deputy Minister of Justice Yevgeny Korniychuk, who is charged with "excess of official powers."

Ukrainian expert Sergei Solodky , Deputy Director of the Kiev Institute of World Policy, says that everything that happens is a manifestation of strength and strengthening the positions of the President of Ukraine and the ruling Party of Regions:

-Similar efforts have been made from the moment Viktor Yanukovych arrives at the authorities, that is, from February-March of this year. And the arrival of the new head of the NBU is the strengthening of the president’s position in the banking, financial direction. The former head of the National Bank of Ukraine is a protege of former president Viktor Yushchenko. He, in principle, had good relations with the current authority, but since the term of his stay in his post has come to an end (now it is 7 years), a replacement has occurred. The new head of the NBU is a person close to the President of Ukraine, which, of course, was not the last factor when choosing a candidate for this post.

- What are the consequences to entail this purpose?

- Obviously, certain actions are being taken aimed at improving relations with the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine was in a difficult situation due to the economic crisis, and the authorities are now very important to enlist the credit support of the IMF. For this, she is ready to make all kinds of concessions. The president needs to control the hryvnia and the budget sphere, because one of the main requirements of the IMF is to reduce the budget deficit. And the fact that Ukraine is presented as a pension reform is actually not a reform - we are talking about increasing the retirement age of women. It is necessary to meet the requirements of the IMF, but the authorities understand that these actions are fraught with dissatisfaction of the people.

We already saw that it took place with the adoption of a new Tax Code, and, I suspect, the authorities are afraid that new unpopular steps can lead to the next surge of popular discontent. Therefore, the authorities are doing everything possible to control the situation. When accepting the budget, all the recommendations of opposition parties were simply ignored, the authorities pursued a "bulldozer" policy - went to everything to pave her option.

-Can the actions of the opposition somehow interfere with the actions of the authorities?

- In fact, the positions of the opponents of the authorities are quite weak, and the authorities either ignore their attempts, or presents any activity as a destructive, directed against the efforts of power to lead the country out of the crisis. In recent weeks, criminal cases have been opened against opposition politicians, in particular against Yulia Tymoshenko and many of her supporters. No one is arrested, but an information campaign is being conducted against the opposition, which weakens the position of opponents of the authorities. And against this background, of course, the opposition is getting harder and more difficult to somehow express their position.