Gas fork for Europe

Despite the economic disorder and the associated reduction in energy consumption, the sales of the Narynka of European natural gas remain the main source of income of Egorossian manufacturers. The main thing is because, unlike oil, for the transigree gas, there are no other external sales markets, except European ones, and it is almost impossible to add the same amount of gas inside Russia, and even by the pierce prices. And therefore, the main source of waterwallness and the main source of ultra -large profits of the manufacturers are solvent European consumers.

Since the European consumers are consuming solvent, even despite depression, it is clear that a good market is a hard struggle for a good market and that Russian gas workers have to hold great pressure from competitors from other countries. Moreover, they are far from scientists of the countries and companies that are usually represented to us in this capacity.

The first group of competitors is these gas manufacturers. Although the gas in Europe has been mined for a very long time, and its resources have already been exhausted in many ways, but the current volume is quite decent. So, three European manufacturers - Norway, the Netherlands and the UK - supply 88 billion KB to the local market. m, 57MLD. KB. m and 12 billion KB. m of gas, respectively. Together, they supply 157MLDD. KB. m, which makes up 36% of the European market (hereinafter, the data is used in the text for 2009).

The second group of suppliers is gas from countries that, although they are outside the territory of the Eurasian Continent, are geographically very close to it, and therefore can supply gas not only in liquefied form, but also in gas pipelines. This is, firstly, Algeria, who pumps 30 billion kb through gas pipelines. m, and in the form of LNGs, 20 billion KB. m; Secondly, Libya, supplying 10 MHDs on gas pipelines. KB. m; And thirdly, this is Egypt, selling 6.6 billion kb on the European market. M LNG.

The third group of suppliers is these, which are very far from Europe, so their gas can be supplied in liquefied form - this, of course, is Qatar with its 19 billion design bureaus. m, Nigeria C10.5 billion kb. m and Trinidad and Tobago with 7.5 billion KB. m.

The fourth group of suppliers, which is still in question, is Azerbaijan and Iran. The volumes of their additives are small - 5.5 billion KB. m and 5.25 billion KB. m, accordingly, they come almost completely to Turkey. The question with them is whether these two countries will be able to supplement the Turkish market with European or not.

All these suppliers, of course, fade against the backdrop of Russian supplies, which amounted to 132 billion KB. m, which is attached to the volume of the European market of 432 billion KB. m is 30%.

This is the current situation of the Nevarope Gas market, but it will soon be strongly. To begin with, one of the three main gas producers in Europe - Great Britain - several years ago entered into a strip of falling production, and from purple exporter of gas turned into a pure importer. So, if the maximum of people occurred in 2000 - 108 billion KB. m, then the booty was more or less evenly reduced, and in 2009 it amounted to only 60 billion KB. M. Poskolka gas consumption in the same year amounted to 87 billion KB. m, then a deficiency of B25 billion KB. m was covered due to imports, mainly from Norway and Qatar.

At the same time, it should be noted that the etjected is underestimated, since due to the crisis in the country there was a reduction in consumption, and in ordinary years it is 5-10 billion cubic meters higher in Britain. In addition, Britain is still an exporter of gas (half of the export is coming to Ireland), which only enhances pressure on the country's meadowing gas intakes, which are estimated at only 290 billion. m.

Another main European manufacturer and gas supplier - Norway is in a slightly different situation. In the difference from Britain, where gas production is constantly falling, it is growing in Norway. And if in 1999 it was 48.5 billion KB. m, then after 10 years, in 2009, the extraction amounted to 103 billion KB. m, and, apparently, will further And this extension of production occurs despite the crisis: in 2008, Norwegian companies mined 99 billion KB. m.

Although the rapid growth of the Norwegian gas sector is almost completely set by the presence of deposits on the country's shelf, there are at least three conjunctural factors that determine its currentactive dynamics. The first factor, which we mentioned a little above, is a matter of compensation for the falling gas production in the UK. And the second is the need to compensate for the falling oil production in Norway itself.

The fact is that Norway (just like, however, Britain) is both a gas producer, and oil producer. Moreover, if gas production grows steadily, then the preynefts also falls stably. From a peak of 162 million tons, which was reached in2001, oil production was reduced to 108 million tons in 2009 and, judged to everything, will continue to decline further. As a result of this decrease in oil production, the country's incomes from its export are falling, and this income falls to compensate for something. So it is compensated by the accelerated gas production, and they make it ethically easily, since both oil and gas are extracted by the same companies (Statul and Nordsk Hydro), which, moreover, belong to the state.

And the third factor is the nobleness of compensating for serious financial losses that the Vynarvezhsky Pension Fund during the current crisis. As you know, the superpowabenens of oil and gas exports in Norway are invested in the national pension fund, which then invests the funds received in securities of the state of companies throughout the white light. Since due to the crisis the cost of all corporate securities fell sharply (and many companies even announced by Nimdefolt), the pension fund received large losses that had to be covered with gas pumping. After all, pensions must be paid every month, and therefore, when the stock markets will recover and the value of the fund's assets will return to the vigor level.

True, it is not entirely clear whether the Scandinavians will have a long time to keep the gained pace. Although, judging by the official data on gas reserves (2 trillion m. M), with existing, they should have been enough for 20 years, however, in the opinion of a number of experts, these data are high, and already in 2020 the country will enter the staging prey. The situation, of course, could save the opening of new months, the operation of which would compensate for the decline in production on the old ones. But Norwegian companies have not opened them since 1997, so they have no need to calculate the outcome of hydrocarbon reserves.

Finishing the description of the oil and gas stories among the two largest European hydrocarbons, we note that the oil falls not only in Norway, but also in Britain. In 1999, 137 million tons were extracted in the North Sea zone of the North Sea, and only 68 million tons in 2009. The decline in production is 2 times, and how it will compensate for Britain, it is not entirely clear, because, unlike Norway, its gas production is also reduced.

As for the third largest gas producer in Europe - the Netherlands, in this case it is necessary to secure the stability of the situation. The golden days of Dutch gas production have long been long, there is no oil in the Netherlands, gas reserves (about 1 trillion m. M) themselves are sebenal and will not grow anymore. Therefore, the calculating Dutch, on the last decade, have been extracting about one and that Zhekolyness of gas (minimum - 58 billion KB, maximum - 68 billion KB), and will be presented in the same volumes for at least 10 years. There is enough for them so far, and it will be visible.

Thus, from the above review of the state of affairs among the largest European gas producers, it is clear that they entered (or will come soon) during the period of falling production. In the meantime, the booby is, they have time to have time to replace it with something.

There are not very many options for replacement (if completely the limit case of shale gas) is not very much, they are given at the beginning of the article. Option No. 1 is to increase imported gas from Qatar, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago. Option No. 2 —t the import of both liquefied and pipeline gas from North Africa. Variant No. 3 - increase imports from Russia. Option No. 4 - to increase the import of Isazerbaijan and Iran with the subsequent connection of another manufacturer - a tour. And this will already be option No. 5.

If you consider these options for separateness, then each of them has its own advantages and disadvantages. Liquefied hazard from Qatar and Nigeria is very good, but so far very expensive. About the cost of the liquefaction, transportation and thinning of gas, who just did not write, and the authors unanimously agree that before the revolutionary reduction in the consumption here is still very far away. Therefore, liquefied gas is used and is used only as an addition to the pipeline. And even then, when the pipeline gas will really grow in price.

Option No. 2 seems to be the most optimal, since both by geographical location and in terms of reserves of the country of Africa are most suitable for the role of gas suppliers to Europe. The same political risk is very strong, due to which deliveries to Europe are able to greatly decrease or even stop.

The third option, as we understand, does not carry any risks in itself: neither political, nor economic, niacological, nor any other. Therefore, in theory, the countries of Europe can calmly calmly replace the drop -down volumes of its own production by Russian Russian standards. But, to our great regret, they do not want to do this, our monopoly and Russian gas suppliers will be intensified by acting, supplies and payment conditions than now.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the European Union countries are actively promoting options No. 4 and No. 5 and attracting new users to their market, artificially increasing competition. At the same time, it must be understood that the Azerbaijan with its extremely insignificant gas reserves (1.3 trillion KB) is unlikely to be able to support the European gas market for a long time. Another thing is Iran Iran. With their stocks of 29.6 trillion. KB. m and 8.10 trillion. KB. m they can use worthy competition to traditional suppliers, such as the Russian Federal District, and to fully compensate for the falling prey of European countries. Truth, the transportation of this gas will be quite expensive, and it is better not to talk about political ri at all, but there is no large choice of the European Union. Either they, or we.

Therefore, the construction of the Gazazovs Putkko gas pipeline, with the help of which Iran and Turkmenistan will be fed to the gas market of Europe, is perceived as the most priority to the European Union.