The crisis of non -interference

This has not yet been officially announced, but there was no doubt that Barack Obama decided to be elected for a second term. The team of managers of his first campaign went to Chicago , where his election committee will be located. In March, the president must submit a formal application to the Federal Election Commission. Its advisers are enthusiastic: the chief’s shares crawled up confidently.

According to the sociological service, Rasmussen, for the first time in the last year, Obama's positive rating reached 50 percent. On the Intrade political forecasts, the chances of the Democrat President were assessed at 60.5 percent, while the Republican is only 36. Serious competitors-traders are not expected: Hillary Clinton, apparently, finally lay down the weapon and, apparently, will not remain in Obama’s second cabinet or vice president.

According to experts, Obama can raise a fabulous amount of billion dollars to his election cashier (in 2008 he had 750 million).

But in the republican camp there will be an acute struggle for the party nomination and for money.

What program of Barack Obama will go to the polls? All with the same as in 2008. But if the first half of the term he justified the failure to fulfill the pre -election promises of the wrecking policy of the previous leadership, now the republican majority in the lower house, inserting sticks into the wheels of the rapid chariot of reforms, will now be the scapegoat. Of course, there can be no talk of recognizing his policy erroneous or ineffective. Obama now positions himself as a centrist, ready for constructive work with the opposition for the benefit of the American people. Within the framework of this paradigm, a steering wheel is possible. How justified these hopes and where exactly will turn the state ship, we learn from the next message "On the situation of the country", with which the president will turn to Congress on Tuesday.

In the international aspect of many, the position of Obama in relation to human rights and the support of democracy is concerned. This is actually the position of non-interference, which was clearly visible at a joint press conference following the results of the last American-Chinese summit. Barack Obama, in response to the corresponding question, made a very cautious statement . “China has a different political system than ours,” he said, carefully choosing every word. “China is at a different stage of development that we belong to very different cultures with a very different story ...” He has completed this monologue as follows: “Over the past 30 years that have passed after the normalization of relations between the United States and China, evolution has occurred in China. We will see further evolution and further changes. "

With well -known amendments, these words are applicable to Russia. Comments of the State Department for various specific occasions (the second sentence of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev, the arrests of the leaders of the opposition) do not change anything in essence - this is unsubscribing, not politics. At the same time, serious experts foresee the possibility of changes in this direction. During a recent discussion at the Bruckings, a prominent employee of this “brain center”, historian and publicist Robert Kagan said that he believes in the return of US foreign policy to the values ​​of liberal democracy, that its goal will be the “revival and strengthening of the world liberal order”.

According to Kaban, the Obama administration should focus not on promotion, but on the protection of democracy where she has already won, and now gives way to its position, erodes. As an example, he called Ukraine. “It's not about the Crusade,” the speaker emphasized. “It is mainly about consolidation and democratic solidarity.” He said the following about Russia: “I think, as we are advancing to resolve the issue of Russia's membership in the World Trade Organization, and therefore the cancellation of the amendment of the Jackson -Vennik, we will have to deal with the problems of human rights and democracy - with the court of Khodorkovsky, with the arrest of Nemtsov ...”

Indeed, Russia's membership in the WTO implies the cancellation of the action of Jackson-Vennik’s amendment against it, and this procedure under the current composition of the Congress is unlikely to become a pure formality. Tough debate will have to come. In any case, the leaders of the Republicans in the lower house are firmly tuned to this.