Translated material
Bloggers of the revolution in Tunisia
Together with bloggers around the world, Russian LiveJournal users are actively discussing the recent revolution in Tunisia. Among the messages in the Russian blogosphere were evidence of those who live in Tunisia. However, the main discussion focused on the question of whether the repetition of the Tunisian scenario in Russia is possible.
Evidence and reaction
One of the bloggers attracted the attention of the Russian blogosphere, publishing messages from Tunisia, including the testimonies of their friends who were also in the center of events:
“A friend from Gabes writes: ... they heard that they are shouting joyfully ... Now they call their son to warn that a gang from Hamma is going to Gabes/they plundered a politician. The site, we took the weapon and go to sort it to Gabes - in the evening we prepared a bucket of stones and glands - in case .... We are still sitting in the smoke-since the fire broke out with renewed vigor-the fire is already blazing with might and main and something explodes there constantly .... "
The estimates of bloggers, of course, dispersed, many were interested in different aspects of what was happening. For example, Avmalgin expressed a fear that the resort beloved by the Russians could be estimated by the Islamic revolution and predicted the revival of the obscured, according to him, European Nice and San Remo. Roman-n, which wrote :
“Our doctors and engineers who worked in Tunisia always drank for“ Habiba President Ben Ali ”on their feasts. Because they believed that it was thanks to him that they did not cut their heads in the squares there. Here right now, let's see what will happen there. ”
Italian76 was more optimistic :
“I hope that Tunisia will also show other countries of the world where scum has settled that you can quite peacefully and painlessly throw off the oppression of the dictators [...] and create a normal society for everyone, and not only for the elect.”
Is the Tunisian script possible in Russia?
At the same time, the main theme of the discussion, which unfolded in the Russian blogosphere, was the question of whether a repetition of the Tunisian scenario in Russia is possible. LJ-user Vadimb saw a source of inspiration in the incident:
“Tunisian youth protested against a low standard of living and unemployment, and then began to put forward political slogans. And everything worked out. Yes, so simple. And in Russia it will not be more complicated. ”
The Chudinovandrei blogger noted that it was unlikely that anyone could have assumed that the African country will show an example of a progressive revolution:
“The world's first Internet revolution took place where no one was waiting for it in Africa.
Events in Tunisia will be a formidable warning for all authoritarian corruption regimes and for ours, of course. I suspect that Surkov may have a premature stroke. Indeed, on the CT it is necessary to show the video tutorials of folk cooking, with a detailed description of how to brew porridge and with which it is better to eat it. [...] And now we need to take lessons even from the Africans. Lessons of living democracy and self -organization. ”
The blogger Max_55555 was also optimistic and wrote : “It will also be on our street ... holiday) I would like without sacrifices.” And the blogger of Paiberg summed up a kind of result : “So the authorities in countries where there are no elections changes. I am sure Putin’s Russia is waiting for something similar. ”
Some bloggers drew attention to how much time the displacement of the Tunisian leader took, and wondered if this is that Russia needs to wait another 13 years so that the revolutionary situation has matured. The Gloriaputina Live Dun-user conducted a comparative analysis of the terms of the leaders of the leaders in the Arab world and came to the conclusion that eight years of Putin’s reign are clearly not enough to repeat the Tunisian scenario. At the same time, bloggers discovered a number of common features between the overthrow of Tunisia and the Russian prime minister. Malvinarus blogger wrote in Putinvotstavku LJ that both leaders used the fight against terror as an excuse to tighten the law and expand their powers. Another number of bloggers actively discussed whether Vladimir Putin would have the opportunity to escape if people go out, and if so, where.
Analyzing the possible scenarios of the development of events in Russia, the blogger Gigameg decided to recall the revolutionary postulates of Vladimir Lenin and came to the conclusion that Leninist principles require revision in today's reality:
“So the revolutionary party, of course, is good, it will not hurt. But not obligatory. In conditions of cruel suppression and dictatorship, the algorithm is different - the parties are not created before, they instantly grow after the revolution. "
Some agreed that the main difference between the Russian and Tunisian leadership is the readiness to use force against the opposition. PCNARIMAN He wrote : "He ( Ben-Ali ), by the way, refused to order to shoot the rebels, I do not think that we will have problems with this."
At the same time, some bloggers expressed confidence that what happened in Tunisia could not happen in Russia. For example, Al_VEN explained that the diny difference lies in the Russian political culture, in the center of which the “stupid attitude” - “nothing will change anyway.”
The Zerrega blogger emotionally asked what should happen in Russia so that people are ready to take to the streets, protesting against the government. As an example, Zerrega reminded the thousands of Russians stuck at the New Year's Eve at the airports near Moscow, and noted that only a meager number of them filed official complaints against the leadership of airlines. Conclusion:
“If labor migration is needed in Russia, then these are Tunisian merchants! Buazisi, your name is in our hearts! "
Some drew attention to the fundamental differences between Tunisia and Russia, which make it impossible to repeat the Tunisian scenario. Blogger Amazonka_Urals It claims that the countries have a very different demographic situation. Unlike Tunisia, the Russian employment market is relatively friendly to the young generation (in Tunisia youth is the most significant group of the population), and the older generation experiences the main problems with labor arrangement. Amazonka_uraals brought one more reason:
“But our generation, which has already survived the collapse of the state in adulthood and that the state has not experienced in its own skin, will not bring down the state for anything. It will criticize it, scold it, can rebel against a particular law or against some specific representatives of the authorities, but against the state-for nothing. ”
LJ-user RUSSOBALT_K wrote that Tunisia and Russia are “different planets”, and therefore the methods and forms of protest of Russians should be different:
“The path of Russia is in the growth of civic responsibility, activity, and maturity. There is no other way. But this path is not at all “vegetable”. He also implies the confrontation between “power” in its incompetence, negligence, evil intent. It is necessarily constant pressure by criticism, upholding their rights - even with overwhelming, with provocations, with a “break on a tooth” of certain options. ”
At the same time, the altoliman LJ , the Tunisian experience can be useful for Russians: “Let them write down, it will be interesting.”
Internet and global revolution
Considerations in Tunisia caused violent discussions on the topic whether this revolution is the first real Facebook/Twitter revolution (at one time the events in Moldova and Iran were already called). If the scale of the influence of information technologies on events within the country can cause doubts, then the influence in the global space is noticeable and obvious. The revolution in Africa excited and aroused the minds of people around the world, including Russia. We can observe the emergence of a kind of opposition solidarity in the young generation of social users. networks around the world.
The American political scientist Erwin Shatshnider in the book “Half -Everected people: the view of a realist at democracy in America” claims that the nature of the conflict depends on the measure of involvement of the audience observing it. According to the shutshneider, “the results of the conflict depend on the radius of the zone infected with the conflict. A change in the number of involved in the conflict has a significant impact on its results. ” According to the American political scientist, one of the main sources of state power is the ability to control the spread of the conflict virus and the dynamics of involving the audience of the audience in the conflict itself.
New information technologies are nullified by the state of the state to control the radius of the spread of the conflict. The virus of the Tunisian revolution instantly spread far beyond the borders of the African state. The sphere of revolutionary discourse expands and becomes global. Ideas and political trends, originated at a local level, form a global agenda and inspire global audiences.
This does not mean at all that the revolution in Tunisia will lead to coups tomorrow in Belarus, Russia or Central Asian states. But this will certainly lead to the fact that the global world will become more turbulent and less stable, while the community of social media users and the new generation of bloggers will play an increasingly significant role in these processes. This can be good news for those who are looking for new opportunities for overthrowing totalitarian regimes. However, at the same time, this can cause new alarms. For example, Shraibman blogger writes :
“I am much more concerned with the fact that in the modern world there is no brightly exposed alternative to capitalism and authoritarianism. Revolutions and uprisings can easily cast in new dictatorships, examples of the sea, from Lenin to Khomeini, and the popular uprising can turn into a pogrom on national ground ... "
Some experts argue that when it comes to new information technologies, the main danger is how states can learn to use the Internet against their own citizens. However, there are more alarming scenarios than the situation in which the government is successfully engaged in the censorship of information on the Internet, hacks electronic mailboxes or simply effectively uses Facebook or Twitter to manipulate popular consciousness. The networks themselves, armed with new mechanisms of mobilization and coordination, while going into the global arena, can become the initiators of violent actions (for example, December events on Manezhnaya Square in Moscow became a hint of this kind of scenario) . In other words, the main threat to the networks are the networks themselves.