Finnish Rev.com

As you want, but the revolution in North Africa is some wrong.

Take, for example, Tunisia. The country, perhaps, is not the richest, but in terms of the scale of the “third world” quite successful - from GDP per capita above the Chinese. A formal reason for mass performances in Tunisia was the “sharp” jump in food prices in December. I must say that in Russia, products have grown up exactly the same pace since September, but for some reason no one has risen. But not the point - maybe we are just such people ... long -suffering. Another thing is curious: in 2006-7, when AGFTING was loudly announced in the world loudly, food prices in Tunisia flew even sharper. But for some reason no special riots happened.

An even more surreal jasmine revolution may seem if we recall that it was coordinated on the Internet and all sorts of fashionable gadgets. Which, even in the more prosperous countries of the Arab world, is still a little bit, but luxury items. Well, that is , it turns out that those whom he had the least stained ...

In Egypt, it is still more funny and confusing. To begin with, the scale of the performances there seems to be greatly exaggerated. So, last Friday - on the "Day of anger" - "finish revolutionaries" threatened to take 80 thousand people to the streets of Cairo! The figure itself is not too impressive-except for some Belarus-especially when you consider that the population of the Egyptian capital reaches almost 20 million. But it really managed to collect even less - from 20 to 50 thousand. Meanwhile, in Egypt, there are nearly 350 thousand internal troops (central security forces). And moreover, there is also a regular police with a mass organized reserve (like Soviet folk squads).

The origins of the revolutionary situation in Egypt are far from as non -obvious as many people think. Yes, not the richest country. Yes, the tourist season was almost to be disrupted - not without the help of the media - elusive, sharks trained on German tourists. Yes, the December increase in world prices for agricultural products hit, including Egypt. However, before the railway message did not stop during the finite revolution and the military did not block the Cairo-Aleksandria highway, there were no interruptions in food. And in any case, the riots should have begun in the southern, most depressed areas of the country. And the revolution flashed just in the main “locomotives of growth” - relatively prosperous Cairo and Alexandria . And what is curious, for reasons, with food security in no way: Egyptian Christian cops (by the way, especially widely represented among the local middle class and economic elite) outraged that after a week (!) After the bomb in one of the Alexandrian churches, the authorities still did not catch the perpetrators. And in the break between the performances of the beginning and end of January in the electronic media, the information suddenly flashed that in Egypt there were cases of pork flu (with death). In short, some reason to take people to the streets would still be found.

The main “feature” of both revolutions deserves a separate conversation-their twitter-digital character. It would seem why collect people for demonstrations via the Internet in countries where traditional, non -electronic social networks function perfectly: that is, large patriarchal families, neighboring communities - and even tribes with clans. And not only somewhere in the outback, but also in large cities: in the same Cairo, a separate five- or nine-story building, as a rule, is completely inhabited by one family clan. And why then to fence the garden - to lay on the Internet, which, as it turned out, can be turned off alone by turning the chip?

In fact, everything is simple. The main advantage of the "network underground" is a high degree of anonymity. Torture a modern cyber dissident-do not torture, he still will not give out his comrades. Just because he himself does not know them. Therefore, the “twitter” revolution can be “steering” from anywhere - even from a neighboring house, even from another hemisphere. And you are not particularly not guided by the patriarchal communities under the “nickname” on the Internet - they are completely built on personal communication and trust, and they are suspicious of strangers. Therefore, the Egyptian “self-defense units”, spontaneously formed at the peak of riots just according to the family-gray principle, immediately distracted from demonstrators, preferring to cooperate with the military.

Well, since it was about “strangers”, I cannot but note another oddity. During both North African revolutions, up to a quarter of “leading” network publications (where to get together, what to have, etc.) were English -language . Despite the fact that in Egypt, the real Anglophons are not that the mass demonstration, but the big picket will not be typed, and Tunisia is a Francophone country at all ...

They will ask me who, if not the Egyptians themselves with the Tunisians, needed all this revolutionary romance and why? Of course, I do not take the exact addresses and surnames. But that’s curious. Agnflation is already repeatedly mentioned here - that is, inflation, provoked by a global food deficiency - is accompanied by soil demand not only for food, but also for gold. The largest reserves of this noble metal - as is known in the United States. Not the same, of course, as they were in the 1950s (more than 20 thousand tons), but still solid. With the beginning of the crisis, the Americans, trying to somehow paste their closed budget poisoned with toxic assets, began to slowly sell these reserves. By October 2010, they were reduced to recordly small 7700 tons. However, by the end of the year, by some miracle, almost 1000 tons increased again. So, in November -December, Americans bought gold feverishly. So, they knew that in the very near future, Agnflation would set new records?

It is objected to me that the next jump in food prices was quite predictable: people on earth are more and more, they eat with an increasing appetite, and the fertility of soils, meanwhile, slowly falls. However, the demand for agricultural goods began to grow in the summer.

... And then Tunisia was worried. And when the metastases of the Tunisian Zhasmin Revolution began to respond in other Arab countries, the rulers of a number of “developing” countries began so as not to share the fate of Ben Ali, to feverishly purchase food. Thus, having inflated the world prices for it over the most bold expectations.

All of the above, of course, is not evidence that the Americans were “steering” on Twitter and Facebook in North Africa. But the fact remains - the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions were beneficial primarily to American agriculture , providing its products in essence unlimited demand for the near future. Let me remind you that in the 1930s, agriculture has already helped the United States overcome great depression. And in the current conditions, when the food basket is about to replace the gold and foreign exchange reserves, it is almost the last hope-and not statistically-improve the largest economy of the world. For such a thing, no dates are sorry!