Black Colonel

No one will write to the colonel. Like a tree standing in a fire covered by a fire, Libya could not but fire after the successes of neighboring revolutions. And she caught fire. But this fire does not look like others. None of the Arab lords of long-lived people want to go to the scaffold. And everyone wants to go to heaven. Ben Ali just fled in Tunisia. Hosnie Mubarak, hesitating, left. The Algerian President of Buteflika repredated the revolutionary ninth shaft, canceling the 19-year-old emergency mode. King Bahrain Sunnit Isa al-Khalifa released political prisoners from prisons. Emir Kuwait distributed $ 10 thousand to all subjects and raised a salary in half. The Saudi monarch allocated to the people the benefits of $ 35 billion. And only Colonel Gaddafi gave his people the last and decisive battle, shooting him from all types of weapons. They say that thousands have already died

The prerequisites for the Libyan uprising are all the same as everywhere in the Arab world. The old regime, from which both the people and the local elites, in this case, represented by the leaders of the tribes infringed on the central authority, were tired; the threat of transferring power by inheritance; The distribution of wealth is too uneven, which is especially important for Libya with its hydrocarbon reserves *** Libya-in 3rd place in Africa in oil reserves and in the 4th-in gas reserves .. But, unlike Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak, Colonel Muamar Gaddafi decided not to give up so simply.
Three mistakes ...
Gaddafi is not as simple as it seems in his extravagant outfits. On February 17, the day after the first riots in the east of the country, he gathered the most politically mature of his sons-the safe of al-Islam, Khamis and Mutasim-and clearly distributed responsibilities between them: the first is responsible for key civilian departments and counter-propaganda, the second is taken by the leadership of elite units and mercenaries, the third together with the head of intelligence Abdullah Sanushi goes to the eastern areas of the country and is responsible there for the protection of oil pipelines. But on the 18th, bad news came: a strategic highway between the West (the historical region of Tripoli) and the east (rich in Kirenaic oil) is safe only for 200 km from the capital, the remaining 600 under the control of the rebels. The Italians should have built another parallel speed road along the sea: the contract was already signed. But, you see, late. The regime turning into billions of dollars, over 40 years of its existence, did not even take care of a normal transport message between different parts of the country. Dictators do not value time. For which in the end they pay.
Gaddafi was used to buying the loyalty of the elders of clans and leaders of the tribes: in Libya tribes, not the army, as in Egypt, the main and most respected social institution and the key to stability. But sending the 19th of the two-day, two fighting squadrons bomb Benghazi, al-Bade, turna and Tobrook, he “forgot” to inform those very leaders and elders about it. And thereby made another serious mistake: the tribes of Varfalla, Tarhun, Zintan, a number of Berber tribes and Tuarean turned away from the colonel. And even the Kolona clan, to which the Gaddafi family always ranked itself, began to openly sympathize with the rebels.
Following this mistake, the Caddafi clan made another, most likely, fatal for himself: he made a bet on the civil war.

... and three arguments
Speaking in the evening of the 22nd on TV, Gaddafi predicted the compatriots of the River of Blood. There is no wars between social layers or representatives of different ethnic or religious groups, as was the case in Lebanon and how it is now in Iraq, in Libya. There is a war between the armed population and elite extracted units. Fifteen thousand Murtazakov - the Praetorian Guard of the regime, consisting of immigrants from the subequatorial regions of the south, who had been brought up in special boarding schools in the spirit of selfless devotion to the leader - were taken to the streets of Tripoli and his suburbs. The rest of the twenty was ordered to make his way to the east. Daddafi, split into two parts of Libya, does nothing: after all, there is almost no hydrocarbons in the West. Only water. There is nothing to feed here.
Another “argument” of Gaddafi is the 80,000th “revolutionary police”, which in number is almost twice as much as a poorly armed and poorly trained 45 thousandth army (half of the soldiers serves on a contractual basis), the leader never trusted the army. And now he cannot at all count on a soldier scored from the same tribes who opposed his regime. So the “king” has the “last argument” - the detachments of mercenaries recruited in neighboring children, Nigeria, Sudan and more remote African countries. They have nothing to lose: in their homeland, poverty awaits them, and the service in Libya, the dream of any village guy depends on the stability of the regime. That is why the bombing of peaceful quarters, hundreds of the dead and thousands of wounded seem to be a terrible dream only uninitiated: for the personal guard of the leader of the Libyan Jamachiria, these are only harsh everyday life.
Sahel ally
In addition to a personal guard, ready to fight until the last warrior, Caddafi counts on the indulgence of the West, especially the United States. The leader is not disturbed by formidable demands to stop violence coming from European capitals and Washington. Unlike Mubarak, it does not depend on foreign assistance, on the contrary, it generously distributes billionth contracts to European companies. While he applies the tactics of scorched land against his own people, enlightened Europe spends three days on discussing the issue of modest sanctions against Tripoli. It is easy to imagine the reaction of Western politicians and international institutions if the planes shot demonstrations, say, on Tehran's streets! But Gaddafi is confident in his indispensability.
In 2005-2006, the United States began to develop the so -called “Sahel strategy.” *** Sahel - an eco -region of half -sucker fields, a savannah, stretching 3900 km from the Atlantic Ocean in the West to the Red Sea in the east. Today, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina-Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan and Eritrey Washington were concerned about the uncontrolled of the huge region, according to which, according to intelligence reports, Al-Caida terrorists and drug dealers are freely. The strategy also had a passing goal: to limit in a prospecting in terms of resources the area the increasing influence of China. According to the rumors, the US Department of Minister Robert Zellik, who then supervised African issues in the State Department, at one of the international meetings presented a playful message from Gaddafi, which was written: "Do you need me?" The message was with a meaning that the Americans caught perfectly. The Gaddafi family, all members of which, according to some reports, are the unspoken beneficiaries of the National Oil Company and personally dispose of half of the oil export revenues, began to prove allied intentions: the Libyans simply dug up the raw materials and construction contracts among the Chinese-Niger, Mali ... and the potential recruits of Al-Caida "were potential recruits" And other radical groups were recruited to the mercenaries. And everyone was satisfied.
"Either I or Chaos"
Political and economic ties with the West is another trump card that Gaddafi is trying to bravage. “Either I, or chaos and anarchy-there is no alternative”-such is the meaning of his Messida to the rest of the world, which was voiced by his son, safe al-Islam, on television week. (The same thing said to the world Hosni Mubarak, and while his prophecy does not come true.) “In addition to us, only the desert can decide the fate of Libya,” the secretary of the Supreme People's Committee (Prime Minister) Baghdadi Al-Mammudi said at a meeting with European diplomats in Tripoli on February 20. Like, clear prospects for the country with a possible dismantling of the regime are not visible. It is understandable: there is no organized opposition in Libya-mainly thanks to the efforts of Gaddafi himself, which was systematically destroying the “enemies of the revolution” both in Libya and beyond: back in the early 80s, the murders of opponents of the regime in Rome, London, Beirut and Athens followed. Nevertheless, during the uprising, the front of the national salvation of Libya (leader Isa Mansur) and the Justice Party (Al-Adal), led by Muhammad Shallu, declared themselves.) This is worthy political forces that are quite capable of taking responsibility for the future of the country, preventing its uncontrolled decay.
However, for Europe, the main problem is not even in the disintegration of Libya. Whether the Civil War will be delayed in Libya or not, the old light will almost cover a new wave of immigration from Maghrib. And it will be similar to the tsunami: European experts talk about 300-400 thousand people over the next year. Until now, Gaddafi literally blackmail Europe as a whole and Italy, in particular, the opportunity/inability to limit the flow of migrants from African countries through the territory of Libya. The signed bilateral agreement with Italy was not enough. In order to “strengthen the borders in the Sahara”, Gaddafi asked € 5 billion a year and a half ago, which were eventually promised to him by the European Commission - officially, however, “for the development of“ the whole African continent ”. What will become with this program in case of changing the regime in Libya is still unclear. But Italy is already in the alarm: if the “resettlement of peoples” on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea really extends, the entire EU will have to fork out and rally the ranks, the head of the Italian Foreign Ministry Franco Frattini would have warned.

The Constitution in Libya is replaced by the Green Book-the main philosophical and political work of Gaddafi, written back in the mid-1970s. The Soviet edition was already published under Gorbachev, in 1989: not all the statements of the colonel revolutionary, in the framework allowed in the Brezhnev USSR

The parliamentarism “... the representative office of the people in parliaments is a deception, and parliamentarism is a vicious solution to the problem of democracy. The main purpose of the parliament is to act on behalf of the people, which in itself is undemocratic, since democracy means the power of the people themselves, and not the power of those who perform on their behalf ... "
About the parties “The party is a tribe of the modern era, it is a clan. The society that one party runs is no different from society, which is ruled by one tribe or one clan ... The tribal struggle and the struggle between the clans have the same negative destructive effect on society as the inter -party struggle. ”
The democracy “... the democratic system is a strong and monolithic structure, each cell of which has a reliable support in the form of primary folk congresses, folk congresses and folk committees, which are found at a meeting of the Universal People’s Congress. There can be no other concept of a truly democratic society. ”
About the press "Democratic printing is a seal published by the People’s Committee, including various public groups."
About the black race "The enslavement of the Black race with a white race was the last stage in the history of slavery ... Now the period of domination of the Black race is coming."
About human individuality “a person, as an individual, must have freedom of expression and, even being insane, have the right to freely express his madness”

Only three of the seven sons of Gaddafi played an active role in the decisive days for the regime

Safe al-Islam, 38 years old.

A graduate of the London School of Economics, where he received the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The head of the Gaddafi Development Fund. The most public of the sons, which was considered by the father as a possible successor, although in this regard was in some confrontation with the older brother Muhammad. He studied architecture in Austria, where he was on friendly relations with the head of the Ultra Party, Jorg Haider, who died in a car accident in 2008. It was the al-Islam safe that was engaged in the settlement of relations with the West in the beginning of the zero years, when Libya pleaded “responsibility, but not guilty” for committed attacks on the sides of aircraft in Scotland in 1988 (270 dead) and in Nigeria in 1989 (170 dead). As a result of negotiations, Libya pledged to pay $ 3 billion to relatives of the victims of disasters. The safe played a key role in the settlement of the crisis with the Bulgarian nurses, which were accused of infected the Libyan children with the AIDS virus. The efforts of the al-Islama safe, the country returned to the country, in particular, the oil giants of Exxon Mobil, Eni and British Petroleum, which, according to rumors, were supposed to compensate the regime paid compensation.

 <figure> <img SRC = "https://archivarius-public.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/RIMA/WEB/MEDIA/IMG/D7D271FD43A792FA8450F601F14D1E52.jpg"/> </figure> ** mutasim Bilyal, 35 years old. ** In the beginning of the zero years spent several years in exile in Egypt - his father suspected him of participating in an attempt by the coup. In 2007, with the mediation of Hosni Mubarak, he left Opala and was appointed chief of the National Security Council. At the beginning of 2010, a scandal flared up in Libya when a video from the New Year party of Mutasim Bilyal, organized in the French Antilles, was on the Internet, in which American singer Beyoncé sang a leader of the revolution. According to rumors, the performance cost $ 2 million. ** Hamis, 29 years old. ** Military personnel. He was trained in Russia, after returning to his homeland, he commanded the unit, which was assigned his name. Father entrusted Hamis to suppress opposition performances in the east of the country

"Corporation Gaddafi"

Muhammad Gaddafi in 2006 received a diploma of engineer and businessman at the University of Liverpool Aisha, the daughter of Gaddafi, who recently wrote about that she was trying to escape from Libya to Malta on board without identifying signs - a clever and, as we see, a beauty - it turned out, one of the lawyers who at one time defended Saddam Hussein at the process in Iraq. Legal skills may be useful to her very soon to protect herself and her family

 *The family of Muamar Gaddafi belongs to the richest clans of the world. Its business interests: from direct investments in gas and oil sectors to telecommunications and the distribution system of wide consumption. * * The main sources of family income are two investment funds-Lybian Investment Authority (Lia) and Lybian Arab Foreign Company (LaFic). The capacity of both funds-$ 70 billion. * * In 2005, the safe al-Islam Gaddafi founded the One-Nine media group, which received exclusive rights to disseminate foreign press in Libya. In addition, he also established One-Nine Petroleum, through which part of the financial flows of the State Oil Corporation of the National Oil Company and its branches. * * * Three other sons of Gaddafi-Mutasim Bilyal, Hamis and Hannibal have their own share of oil exports thanks Company, registered in one of the European countries. * * The daughter of Gaddafi Aisha heads the Wa'atAssemo charity organization, under the patronage of which international business forums often took place in the country. In the field of Aishi’s business interests, there are energy and the construction sector, for the development of which considerable funds are allocated from the budget. In addition, Aisha has financial interests in the private Tripoli Clinic “Saint-James”, one of the best in the country specializing in plastic surgery. * * In 2005, three sons of Gaddafi-Saadi, Muhammad (son from his first marriage) and Mutasim Bilyal, according to rumors, began the struggle for the right to possess a license for production in the country Coca-Cola. As a result, Muhammad won: the Olympic Committee of Libya he headed received a 40 percent share in Libyan Beverage, which has a Coca-Cola franchise in Libya. In addition, under the full control of Muhammad - the service sector, telecommunications and the Internet. * * In 2006, the Caddafi clan announced the project of the construction of a new city in the west of the country. It is announced that the construction of the city will be carried out under the leadership of engineer Saadi Gaddafi. However, the implementation of the project never began.*

 ** The enhanced voltage between the safe al-Islam and mutasim ***was created: 09/03/2009**09-three 208**confidential-sipdis***Not earlier than 22/02/2011**Topic: the successor operation in Libya is unobvious, because Gaddafi children wage internecine wars * * 1. (C) Some events of last summer show that friction - XXXXXXXXXXXXxxx intensified between the children of Muamar Gaddafi. In many ways, the voltage is justified by the positioning of the al-Islam safe as a public person of the regime; / .../ arrests and an intimidation shares against several like-minded safe al-Islam last summer and a gradual restriction of the role of Mutasim in the supply of military equipment suggest that this time the discord among Gaddafi’s children is quite serious. /.../ * * 4. (C) /... /As reported, Gaddafi decided to reduce the role of the sanussi-the mentor of his most problematic children (who still occupies the post of key adviser to the safe al-Islam)-and instead control over the activities of the losers of Saadi, Hannibal and the safe al-Arab (younger sons of Gaddafi.-The New Times) to entrust his daughter Aisha Gaddafi.* *6. (C) / ... / From last fall, the competition between the safe al-Islam, who is still considered the heir, and Mutasim, whose viability as a potential alternative successor has increased from the moment an adviser on national security issues, intensified. /…/ Мутасим сопровождал Муамара Каддафи во время визита последнего в Москву, Минск и Киев в прошлом году (доклад D) и сыграл ключевую роль в переговорах о потенциальных поставках оружия. /…/*

Кристиан Граеф, французский дипломат, публицист, эксперт по арабскому миру, посол Франции в Ливии в 1982–1985 гг.: «Кровь к крови»
То, что происходит сегодня в Ливии, — драма, которую можно было предсказать еще в 1969 году. Ливия никогда не была единой, политика Каддафи состояла в постоянном сдерживании, часто репрессивными методами, трех областей, которые в той или иной степени противостояли его режиму. Рано или поздно это взорвалось бы в любом случае. Нужна была только искра, а там, как говорят бедуины, «кровь к крови». Отличие от Египта и Туниса в том, что у Ливии очень смутное будущее. В стране нет оппозиционного лидера, способного объединить разные регионы и племена одной идеей. Борьба с режимом неоднородна, разные группы не объединены друг с другом, никто не может гарантировать, что, победив силы Каддафи, они не начнут сражаться между собой. При этом сам Каддафи со своими сыновьями обладает большим военно-финансовым потенциалом, достаточным для долгой и упорной борьбы. Поэтому завтрашний день Ливии представляется погруженным в хаос гражданской войны. Войны бедуинской, в которой слова про «борьбу до последней капли крови» не пустой звук: для бедуина большая честь умереть в битве. Это будет война всех со всеми, как в Ливане: наемники Каддафи будут бороться с повстанцами, племена будут воевать между собой, радикальные исламисты — с более умеренными мусульманами, черные мигранты — с коренным бедуинским населением.

Немаловажно и то, что сам Каддафи многие годы играл со своим окружением, не исключая и своих сыновей, по принципу «разделяй и властвуй». Он ссорил всех со всеми: сегодня ты министр, завтра — в опале и в ссылке, послезавтра — снова у кормушки. Это помогало ему сохранять между приближенными атмосферу постоянного страха, но в то же время стяжательства и недоверия. Вполне вероятно, Каддафи скоро будет убит кем-то из своих близких, который попытается занять его место, что приведет к дополнительной борьбе между наследниками, а следовательно, к очередной крови.