In Belarus, economic collapse began

The Belarusian government was unable to cope with the currency deficit and gave all its opponents a magnificent gift. The National Bank of Belarus has stopped selling dollars and euros to commercial banks. Now in the exchangers of the country for some time (maybe very long) there will be no currency. Since the beginning of the year, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Belarusian National Bank have declined by $ 1 billion, to $ 4 billion by March 1. According to the results of January 2011, the country's payment deficit increased by $ 900 million. In the year, imports to Belarus increased by 36%, and export fell by 13%. Today, even the Belarusian proletariat, far from both politics and the economy, aware that the country is on the verge of a financial abyss. The authorities instead of traditional measures: the devaluation of the national currency, the reduction of salaries in the public sector and the termination of the construction of large social facilities (ice palaces, pools and hospitals) - there are rather strange steps that will drive Belarus only into an even greater financial hole in the future. So, since the beginning of March, several currency restrictions have been introduced in the country. Importers were forbidden to buy currency in an amount of larger than 50,000 euros. Samsung immediately left the Belarusian market. On the foreign exchange exchange, applications for the purchase of foreign currency are now executed only 30 days after filing, although previously such requests were satisfied within a day. At the same time, the exchange fee for the purchase of currency at once increased 200 times - up to 2%. Speculators have already appeared in the off -off market. They sell currency for a price, 10–20% more than on the exchange. Many companies that need to be calculated with speculators have nowhere to go and they use these speculative proposals. Even the National Bank recognized the problem. Belarusians in the last two weeks every morning begin in lines in exchangers. In order to have fewer conflicts on this basis, police officers began to be on duty at exchangers. They say that Belarusians, who traditionally trusted exclusively the dollar, against the backdrop of excitement, began to buy up both the euro and Russian rubles. Demand has grown even for Polish zlotys. The bankers did not understand the new measure of the authorities to preserve the gold and foreign exchange reserves. In private conversations with me, they say that the passions of the exchangers began to navigate the little by little: people ended “bunnies”. If the authorities did not make “stupid movements”, people would gradually begin to hand over “extra” dollars back. But now this is not necessary to wait. Now the bankers say that the authorities have arrived quite imprudently: ahead of the holidays, and Belarusians, deprived of the opportunity to buy currency, will boil with anger. This is especially true due to the fact that the local “bunny” is very reluctant to change to national currency even in neighboring Ukraine, not to mention Poland and Lithuania. Today, the official dollar exchange rate in Belarus is 3080 Belarusian rubles. But Latvian banks are ready to buy a “bunny” only at the price of 3750 Belarusian rubles per dollar. Another important point: now in Belarus there is a stir of excitement for cars. Local, fearing the increase in customs duties on cars to the level of Russian, actively import cars from Europe and the USA to the country. Obviously, the authorities, going to such unpopular measures in this spring, is very at risk. But it seems that the National Bank does not have other tools for maintaining stability. The lack of currency is the main scourge of the Belarusian economy. The situation was also worsening that on the eve of the election - in November 2010 - Lukashenko increased salaries in the civilian and raised pensions. The crisis in Belarus is visible to the naked eye even to foreign experts. Standard & Poor's reduced the long -term credit rating of Minsk from B+ to B. The “negative” forecast is saved. Fitch reduced the reliability rating of the seven largest Belarusian banks at once. The Russian "daughter" Unicredit has stopped operations with the Belarusian ruble. Belswissbank forbade foreign exchange operations on plastic cards. The Belorussian ATMs have already disappeared dollars . Belarusian bankers are waiting for devaluation. According to the three economists interviewed by me from the country's largest banks, the prospects of the Belarusian currency are sad. They all expect that even before the beginning of April, the “bunny” will become cheaper by at least 20%. Most often, the figure of 3800 Belarusian rubles per dollar appears. The authorities are trying to calm the population, but its statements sound unconvincing. Nobody gives new loans. Although Lukashenko is trying: he already requested $ 2 billion in the EU anti -crisis fund, and another $ 1 billion from the Russian government. The IMF made it clear: the credit line can be increased only under one condition: the Belarusian ruble course should be reduced sharply and very significantly. Independent experts in private conversations say that the “bunny” should cost at least half the cheaper than it is evaluated now. And the IMF warns potential creditors: by the end of the year, the country's external debt will grow to 75% of GDP. Belarusian money is needed more than ever. Understanding that the situation with loans has come to a dead end, the authorities hopes for the mass sale of its enterprises. On March 22, the country approved a plan for the privatization of the largest industrial facilities for 2011-2013. The authorities expect to sell shares of 244 factories. Among them are 17 energy enterprises. It seems that Russia has a unique opportunity to buy the most tidbits of the ally economy. It's a sin not to use it. Moreover, Lukashenko, who has still advocated economic independence, now personally meets and hugs almost every potential investor ...