The dollar - to fall?

According to the deputy minister of economic development Andrei Klepach, by the end of 2011, the national currency can grow to 24-25 rubles per American dollar in the event of an influx of capital to the country and while maintaining current oil prices. He recalled that the current government forecast of the average annual course is 28 rubles 40 kopecks per dollar at the planned average price of Russian oil Urals - $ 105 per barrel.

However, now oil quotes are varying in the range from 115 to 120 dollars, which means an additional flow of currency to the country. How likely is the script proposed by the representative of the Ministry of Economic Development?

“Of course, there is such a risk,” says Natalia Orlova, the chief economist of Alfa Bank. - If the price of oil, for example, will continue to grow, and we will see that capital will continue to come to countries with developing markets, Russia, of course, can become an object of attention. Especially if we see some new IPO or acceleration of the privatization process.

That is, this is in principle possible. However, based on the current trends, it is clear: although oil has grown quite a lot since the end of 2010, the outflow of capital has continued in Russia. That is, the actual internal needs of the economy in foreign and Russian capital are now very weak ...

The deputy head of the analytical department of the Council of the Council of Investigation Company Olga Belenka has a similar opinion. She also believes that even in conditions of high oil prices, the situation with the inflow of capital to the country does not contribute to the rapid strengthening of the ruble:

- This scenario, in my opinion, corresponds to a combination of conditions such as maintaining very high prices for oil and an influx of external capital. At the moment, the second condition is still not fulfilled. We see that according to the results of the previous year, the outflow of capital amounted to almost 40 billion dollars, in the first quarter of the Central Bank, it estimates this outflow at the level of 21 billion. Actually, while investors, despite the high oil prices, do not go to Russia.

Experts do not exclude that in the coming months the situation in the capital market may change. At the same time, with the prospects for preserving oil prices at the current level, in their opinion, not everything is so unambiguous. Natalia Orlova from Alfa Bank, for example, expects a decrease in their quotes:

- Of course, in the price of oil, the mood factor, the geopolitical factor is very strong. But, on the other hand, one should not forget that the IMF recently came out with a report and comments on the topic that, in fact, the world economy is still better restored. And in this sense, the demand for oil remains quite high.

Therefore, on the one hand, I think that, of course, the level of $ 120 and higher at the price of oil is high enough, and there is a speculative factor in the price. But on the other hand, it is not very realistic, probably now, to reason now that oil can return to the level of 60 or 70 dollars per barrel. Most likely, the equilibrium level can now be somewhere at the level of 90-100 dollars per barrel ...

It could be assumed that the country's financial authorities will counteract the national currency, first of all, the Central Bank. However, according to Olga Belenkaya, an analyst at the Council investment company, they choose the latter between the acceleration of inflation and strong rubles:

- The government does not really need a strong ruble. But Alexei Kudrin (Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation. - RS) clearly made it clear that in the dilemma "Inflation or deterrence of the ruble strengthening" Reducing inflation is a priority. Since, in his opinion, stable and long -term low inflation figures will maintain low credit rates. However, the strengthening of the ruble to the levels that Andrei Klepach speaks of is a serious blow to the economy, and I think everyone understands this.

What negative impact on the Russian economy will strengthen its national currency? Olga Belenkaya continues the deputy head of the Vovinka analytical department:

-Now we see that the restoration of the economy is very difficult and slowly, investments are reduced, consumer demand from the population is also growing not very quickly due to the stagnation of its income. Against this background, a strong ruble means that imports are becoming more attractive, and, accordingly, the demand of the population, and so weak enough, will switch to imported goods more. This can cause an additional blow to restore the economy.

Thus, as experts suggest, the trends of strengthening the Russian ruble to the dollar in Russia will be preserved, but it is unlikely that its rate will grow to the values indicated by the Deputy Minister of Economic Development. Says the chief economist of "Alfa Bank" Natalia Orlova:

- There are considerations about the levels of the ruble course. The pre-crisis level of 23-24 rubles per dollar was achieved at actually the same price not the oil that we see now. But over the past few years, since 2008, we have returned to a very fast increase in imports. We have an increase in imports, in fact, very quickly eats an increase in export income related to oil price. Therefore, I would say that now we can see the strengthening of the ruble to the level of 26 rubles per dollar, but it is unlikely - to the level of 23-24 rubles.

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On April 27, at foreign exchange auction, the Russian currency for the dollar rose to almost 27 rubles 71 kopecks. Thus, only from the beginning of the month its course increased by 80 kopecks or almost 3 percent.